Alternative Retirement Income Arrangements and Lifetime Income Inequality: Lessons From Australia

This paper examines the implications for lifetime income equality of alternative retirement income arrangements, using the Australian scheme as a benchmark. In Australia, the pay-as-you go financed age pension is means-tested and thereby provides a contrast with those countries where part or all of a basic pension is paid to all aged persons. Many governments are considering an increase in the level of means-testing. The results show that the introduction of a universal pension coupled with significant changes and simplifications to the structure of taxation and superannuation have little effect on the redistributive impact of the tax structure in a life cycle framework. The presence of means-testing appears to have no significant effect on life-time inequality. The results suggest that it is possible to eliminate complexities from the system providing retirement benefits without having any deleterious effect on equity. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

CROPLAND DIVERSION (SET-ASIDE) IN THE US AND UK

Lessons from a variety of past and present US cropland diversion programmes are important for evaluating UK set-aside proposals. The structure and operation of current US programmes and the major UK proposals are described. A comparative economic welfare analysis of generic cropland diversion in the US and UK reveals the different types of potential impacts due principally to their different agricultural support programmes. Government cost savings and land rental payments can be misleading benefit and cost indicators for set-aside. Major problems with US programmes include slippage of production control, lack of targeting, inadequate overall efficiency evaluations, and goal conflict. The most appropriate role for cropland diversion may be as a compensatory mechanism to aid the agricultural adjustment process in the face of price restraint, while securing the most valuable non-market conservation and environmental services from idled farm land.     

Equity valuation: A survey of professional practice

This paper reports the results of a scientific survey of the equity valuation practices of CFA Institute members with equity analysis job responsibilities. Using an instrument designed to minimize biases in prior valuation surveys and sampling a larger group than in previous studies (13,500 investment professionals, resulting in 1,980 valid completed questionnaires), this paper documents professional practices in the selection of equity valuation approaches, including specific model variations and key input preferences. Important differences in practice were observed across geographies and employer firm types.     

Do Small Banks have an Advantage in Lending? An Examination of Risk-Adjusted Yields on Business Loans at Large and Small Banks

Consolidation in the banking industry has sparked concern about the survival of small banks, particularly as it relates to the availability of credit to small businesses. However, if small banks have an advantage in processing credit information, compared to large banks, they should continue to survive in a competitive environment. We evaluate risk-adjusted commercial loan yields (gross yields less net charge-offs and the risk-free rate of return) at small and large banks for the period of 1996 through 2001. Our primary finding is that, after controlling for market concentration, cost of funds, and a variety of other factors that might influence yields, smaller banks earn greater risk-adjusted yields than larger banks. This result suggests that small banks make better choices from the available small business loans and is consistent with the notion that these banks have an information advantage in evaluating credit.     

Product life cycle research: A literature review

The purposes of this paper are threefold: to review the scope of product life cycle (PLC) research; to pinpoint areas requiring further investigation; and to provide guidelines for future researchers. Because of the paucity of empirical evidence, only tentative conclusions are advanced. For example, the most common PLC pattern is the classical, bell-shaped curve, but it is not the sole shape. The application of various forecasting techniques across the PLC have met with merely moderate success. Very little research has been conducted either on how different characteristics of the firm influence the PLC or on the actual use of various PLC-strategy theories by business planners. Finally, investigators have focused almost exclusively on validating the existence of the PLC concept among nondurable consumer goods. Industrial items, as well as major product changes, have been nearly ignored. The main conclusion is that additional research-more diversified and extensive in nature-is needed on many PLC topics.     

HOME ECONOMICS: A SOCIO-PRACTICAL FIELD

It is suggested that Home Economics is a socio-practical field, and an account of this new concept together with a consideration of the relation of theory and practice in a socio-practical field are given. The implications of this for Home Economics are discussed and an outline of what a home economics theory would look like, given that Home Economics is a socio-practical field, is put forward.     

Measuring abnormal daily trading volume for samples of NYSE/ASE and NASDAQ securities using parametric and nonparametric test statistics

We extend prior research on the empirical properties of daily trading volume and methods to detect abnormal trading volume in two ways. We compare the performance of a nonparametric test statistic with the parametric test statistic used in prior research and we study samples of NASDAQ securities as well as samples of NYSE/ASE securities. Prior research has focused exclusively on NYSE securities. We find the nonparametric test statistic is more powerful in detecting abnormal trading volume than the parametric test statistic in both samples of NYSE/ASE and NASDAQ securities. We also document that abnormal trading volume will be detected more often in samples of NYSE/ASE securities compared to NASDAQ securities.     

Predicting Corporate Failure Using a Neural Network Approach

This paper investigates the performance of Artificial Neural Networks for the classification and subsequent prediction of business entities into failed and non-failed classes. Two techniques, back-propagation and Optimal Estimation Theory (OET), are used to train the neural networks to predict bankruptcy filings. The data are drawn from Compustat data tapes representing a cross-section of industries. The results obtained with the neural networks are compared with other well-known bankruptcy prediction techniques such as discriminant analysis, probit and logit, as well as against benchmarks provided by directly applying the bankruptcy prediction models developed by Altman (1968) and Ohlson (1980) to our data set. We control the degree of ‘disproportionate sampling’ by creating ‘training’ and ‘testing’ populations with proportions of bankrupt firms ranging from 1% to 50%. For each population, we apply each technique 50 times to determine stable accuracy rates in terms of Type I, Type II and Total Error. We show that the performance of various classification techniques, in terms of their classification errors, depends on the proportions of bankrupt firms in the training and testing data sets, the variables used in the models, and assumptions about the relative costs of Type I and Type II errors. The neural network solutions do not achieve the ‘magical’ results that literature in this field often promises, although there are notable 'pockets' of superior performance by the neural networks, depending on particular combinations of proportions of bankrupt firms in training and testing data sets and assumptions about the relative costs of Type I and Type II errors. However, since we tested only one architecture for the neural network, it will be necessary to investigate potential improvements in neural network performance through systematic changes in neural network architecture.