Do economic statistics contain information to predict stock indexes futures prices and returns? Evidence from Asian equity futures markets

This research examines the impact of local and international market factors on the pricing of stock indexes futures in East Asian countries. The purpose of this paper is to present a study of the significant factors that determine the major stock indexes futures’ prices of Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. This study first investigates the relationships between Hang Seng Index Futures, KLCI Futures, SiMSCI Futures, KOSPI Futures, Taiwan Exchange Index Futures and local interest rates, dividend yields, local exchange rates, overnight S&P500 index and a newly constructed index, Asian Tigers Malaysia Index (ATMI). 11 years historical data of stock indexes futures and the economic statistics are studied; 10 years in-sample data are used for testing and developing the pricing models, and 1 year out-of-sample data is used for the purpose of verifying the predicted values of the stock indexes futures. Using simple linear regressions, local interest rates, dividend yields, exchange rates, overnight S&P500 and ATMI are found to have significant impact on these futures contracts. In this research, the next period close is predicted using simple linear regression and non-linear artificial neural network (ANN). An examination of the prediction results using nonlinear autoregressive ANN with exogenous inputs (NARX) shows significant abnormal returns above the passive threshold buy and hold market returns and also above the profits of simple linear regression (SLR). The empirical evidence of this research suggests that economic statistics contain information which can be extracted using a hybrid SLR and NARX trading model to predict futures prices with some degree of confidence for a year forward. This justifies further research and development of pricing models using fundamentally significant economic determinants to predict futures prices.

     

Analyst Herding and Stock Price Crash Risk: Evidence from China

We examine the proposition that firms with disproportionately more analysts herding in their coverage, as measured by a larger herding index value, have higher crash risk. Our findings are consistent with the main proposition. The results suggest that information production, rather than monitoring, is the primary mechanism behind the positive relation between herding and crash risk. Our conclusion is robust to different measures of crash risk, crash risk windows, herding measures, subsamples, and instrumental estimation. In addition, using post‐earnings announcement drift, we report that analyst herding slows down bad news transmission in the market. Our findings extend the literature by documenting that analyst herding plays a role in enhancing crash risk. Analyst herding has economic consequences on the covered firms. We offer support for the concern in the literature regarding analyst herding and market fluctuations.     

Assessing Financial Performance of Malaysian Islamic and Conventional Commercial Banks Using Financial Ratios

A rapid growth of Islamic banking has led the Malaysian economy to gaining greater prosperity than before. Presently, there are more than 20 Islamic banks operating in Malaysia. Financial ratios calculated from the categories of liquidity, profitability, risk and solvency, and efficiency of banks can be used to gauge the overall financial performance of the banking industry. The objective is to assess the overall performance of Islamic banks as well as conventional banks in Malaysia using financial ratios. The findings indicated that conventional commercial banks in Malaysia do have better quality assets, are more liquid, and are more profitable than Islamic banks. Total expenses in conventional banks are much higher, which may affect profitability and the significant amount of non-performing loans （NPLs）, thus increasing solvency risk. The findings show positive insights of Islamic banks, whose confidence and trust are rising, over a short period with strong improvements in asset utilization, effective management, and expenditure control. This comparative study clearly identified that conventional banks are better financial performers compared to Islamic banks in Malaysia during the period of 2006-2010.     

Modelling property values in Nigeria using artificial neural network

Unreliable and inaccurate property valuation has been associated with techniques currently used in property valuation. A possible explanation for these findings may be due to the utilisation of traditional valuation methods. In the current study, an artificial neural network (ANN) is applied in property valuation using the Lagos metropolis property market as a representative case. Property sales transactions data (11 property attributes and property value) were collected from registered real estate firms operating in Lagos, Nigeria. The result shows that the ANN model possesses a good predictive ability, implying that it is suitable and reliable for property valuation. The relative importance analysis conducted on the property attributes revealed that the number of servants’ quarters is the most important attribute affecting property values. The findings suggest that the ANN model could be used as a tool by real estate stakeholders, especially valuers and researchers for property valuation.     

Assimilation of Hong Kong Immigrants in Canada

A flood of emigration from Hong Kong to Canada was observed prior to the handover from Britain back to China in 1997. I pool Canadian Census data from 1991 to 2006 to study the labour market assimilation of Hong Kong immigrants. The findings suggest that these immigrants faced a significant negative wage gap upon entry in comparison with Canadian‐born individuals, and this was larger for cohorts arriving closer to 1997, suggesting a decline in cohort quality. The results also indicate that earnings convergence with the Canadian‐born was slow for the majority of these immigrants.     

Value Orientations, Income and Displacement Effects, and Voluntary Contributions

Identifying the value orientations of subjects participating in market or non-market decisions by having them participate in a ring game may be helpful in understanding the behaviour of these subjects. This experiment presents the results of changes in the centre and the radius of a value orientations ring in an attempt to discover if the measured value orientations exhibit income or displacement effects. Neither significant income effects nor displacement effects are identified. An external validity check with a voluntary contribution game provides evidence that value orientations from rings centred around the origin of the decision-space explain significant portions of voluntary contributions while value orientations from displaced rings do not.     

An Empirical Analysis of Synthesizing the Effects of Festival Quality,Emotion, Festival Image and Festival Satisfaction on Festival Loyalty: A Case Study of Macau Food Festival

This study aims to examine the interrelationships among the festival quality dimensions, festival quality, emotion, festival image, festival satisfaction and festival loyalty. Analysis of data from 454 attendees in the 12^th Macau Food Festival indicates that the proposed model fits the data. The result of this study will assist festival management in developing and implementing market‐orientated service strategies to increase quality and image, and enhance the emotion and satisfaction of attendees in order to attain their loyalty toward food festivals. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dory & Nemo Early Learning Center

The case requires students to evaluate the current situation and growth options of a small business, Dory & Nemo Early Learning Center (D&N), which provides intergenerational programming to preschool children at a retirement home. The learning center was opened in September 2014, and it was able to make a small profit each year. However, it is projected that there would be a 75 percent decrease in net income from $8,072 in Fiscal 2016 to $1,819 in Fiscal 2017. Davis and Nathans, business partners of D&N, met to discuss the following growth options: (i) Mosaic Retirement Residences' proposal to set up two learning centers at their retirement homes each year for a total of six in three years and (ii) Harmony Retirement Residences' proposal for leasing space to set up learning centers at their retirement homes, one new learning center a year for a total of three in three years. Furthermore, Davis and Nathans had decided to increase the program fee from $320 to $350 per week for the 2017–18 academic session in September. They would also like to reduce their workload from 50 to 40 hours per week, increase their vacation time from two to three weeks, and increase their salaries and bonuses. Students must consider personal objectives of business partners and mission of D&N in the analysis. They learn to identify relevant information for decision making, apply appropriate analytical tools for quantitative analysis, integrate qualitative and quantitative factors in decision making, and make recommendations consistent with analysis.