Multilateral trade and export-led growth in the world economy: some post-war evidence

In this paper, we address an empirical question: is there evidence to substantiate the assumption that the post-war liberalization of world trade has actually led to a significant increase in the world GDP? In our attempt to answer that question, time series data in the Penn World Table 6.1 are aggregated across countries to obtain a measure of world trade and output, and the total number of GATT/WTO member countries is employed as an explanatory variable to account for the impact of multilateral trade agreements, such as the Kennedy Round, Tokyo Round, and the Uruguay Round, on the trade-growth nexus. We then examine the relationship between world trade and the post-war GDP per worker across the world through the multivariate cointegration and error correction modeling and the Granger causality test. The results suggest that, at the global level, the post-war liberalization of multilateral trade has promoted both GDP and trade activities. There is also evidence that supports the export-led growth hypothesis in the world economy.     

Understanding consumer-to-consumer interactions in virtual communities: The salience of reciprocity

Virtual communities (VCs) represent popular social environments in which people interact by exchanging resources such as information, ideas, and advice about their common interests. Existing research lacks an explication of why people help others in VCs and how such voluntary behaviors drive subsequent attitudes (VC commitment) and behavioral intentions (online co-shopping). This article adopts resource exchange theory to examine how two routes of interactivity (structural vs. experiential) influence reciprocity and affect commitment and co-shopping. Using a netnography study and an online survey, the authors confirm the significant effects of structural and experiential routes of interactivity on reciprocity. Reciprocity has critical effects on social system maintenance by enhancing commitment to the community and intention to co-shop. The results also identify partially mediated relationships among various variables, which suggest that the effects of the experiential route on VC commitment and co-shopping operate partly through reciprocity.     

Shopping motives,store attributes and shopping enjoyment among Malaysian youth

Youth shoppers are an emerging age group that is recognized as a meaningful market segment, yet there is lack of extant shopping enjoyment research explicit to the cohort especially in Malaysia context. This study endeavors to measure shoppers' shopping enjoyment and to explore the effect of both internal and external factors in influencing their shopping enjoyment levels. Shopping motives as the internal contributor is personal-specific while store attributes serve as the external aspect is regarded as situational-specific. By employing hierarchical multiple regression analysis, it was found that anticipated utility dimension from shopping motive variable and enhancement dimension from store attribute variable explained the variance in shopping enjoyment. Narrowing to the two variables identified, anticipated utility (β=0.198) from shopping motives was having more influential power than enhancement derived from store attributes (β=0.163) in explaining shopping enjoyment. The findings assist retailers in enhancing the perceived value of customers.     

Diversification,rationality and the Asian economic crisis

We examine the reaction of world equity markets to the 1997 Asian Crisis. Correlations across the markets increased dramatically during the economic crisis but only during a relatively short period around the crisis. After the crisis, the benefits of international diversification improved substantially but did not return to the levels existing before the crisis. We then examine whether the market reactions to the crisis can be explained by economic fundamentals. We find that virtually all of the variation in returns across markets can be explained by these factors. The reaction of markets to the Asian Crisis was rational.     

Predictors of gerontechnology acceptance by older Hong Kong Chinese

The aim of this study was to examine the factors which influence the acceptance of gerontechnology by older Hong Kong Chinese. A research model based on the technology acceptance model (TAM) and Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) was proposed. It was empirically tested by using survey data collected from 1012 seniors aged 55 and over in Hong Kong. A face to face interview technique with a preset questionnaire was employed to collect data and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) was used for data analysis. The proposed model could explain 55.4% of the variance in actual usage of gerontechnology. However, in contrast to TAM and UTAUT, significant effects for perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, and attitude towards using on usage behavior were not found in this study. Personal attributes like technology self-efficacy and anxiety, and facilitating conditions were more decisive than perceived benefits for predicting gerontechnology usage behavior of Hong Kong older Chinese. The managerial implications generated from the results are discussed.     

下一代银行IT架构

在全球性金融危机的笼罩下，IT开支被视为提升效率的重要手段，虽然总IT开支将减少，但IT有能力降低其他领域的成本。征并购和风险管理等领域将会推动短期IT开支的增长。当前用于GRC（监管、风险管理和法规遵从）的IT开支将继续增长。虽然销售情况不容乐观，但对于提高工作效率的需求，必将推动网点IT开支的增长。     

THE ECONOMIC VALUE OF USING REALIZED VOLATILITY IN FORECASTING FUTURE IMPLIED VOLATILITY

We examine the economic benefits of using realized volatility to forecast future implied volatility for pricing, trading, and hedging in the S&P 500 index options market. We propose an encompassing regression approach to forecast future implied volatility, and hence future option prices, by combining historical realized volatility and current implied volatility. Although the use of realized volatility results in superior performance in the encompassing regressions and out-of-sample option pricing tests, we do not find any significant economic gains in option trading and hedging strategies in the presence of transaction costs.     

Economies of superscale in commercial banking

Most previous studies of scale economies in banking have excluded banks larger than $1 billion in assets. Thus study, by contrast, estimates cost functions for the 100 largest US commercial banks. ‘Hedonic’ terms are incorporated to correct for the aggregated nature of the Call Report data available for these banks. In addition, we attempt to quantify the cost benefit of diversification in the model. We estimate efficient bank scale to range from $15 billion to $37 billion in total assets, a thousandfold increase over some previous findings. These results are supported by comparison of actual average costs, as well as by casual historical observation and the level of widespread concern over interstate banking. Our findings suggest some cost incentive or benefit to expansion or consolidation among large regional banks, including interstate expansion or consolidation.