Using mean-Gini and stochastic dominance to choose project portfolios with parameter uncertainty

Although a variety of models have been studied for project portfolio selection, many organizations still struggle to choose a potentially diverse range of projects while ensuring the most beneficial results. The use of the mean-Gini framework and stochastic dominance to select portfolios of research and development (R&D) projects has been gaining attention in the literature despite the fact that such approaches do not consider uncertainty regarding the projects’ parameters. This article discusses, with relation to project portfolio selection through a mean-Gini approach and stochastic dominance, the impact of uncertainty on project parameters. In the process, Monte Carlo simulation is considered in evaluating the impact of parametric uncertainty on project selection. The results show that the influence of uncertainty is significant enough to mislead managers. A more robust selection policy using the mean-Gini approach and Monte Carlo simulation is proposed.     

Forecasting core competencies in an R&D environment

This study, carried out in 1998, aimed to develop a method of forecasting core competencies in an agricultural research organization, using the Delphi Technique. First, based on a survey of internal documents and interviews, nine organizational core competencies and their specific components (human competencies) were defined, and expert judges identified. These judges responded to a questionnaire, in which the importance of the future human competencies was assessed and the organization's existing human capacity was evaluated. Means were calculated for both judgements and changes were made in various definitions, based on the experts' comments. Another questionnaire was designed and sent out to an expanded panel of judges to confirm or to revise the priority mean scores obtained or to add scores in the case of competencies that entered later. Factor analysis and reliability scores have demonstrated internal and inter‐competency consistencies. Technological Innovation Management and Geo‐processing appeared as the top priorities and Plant Pathology as the least priority. Priorities for each human competency were also calculated and they have been helpful for decision‐making concerning the selection and graduate training of researchers on the organization studied.     

On the role of money in a business cycle model of a small open economy: The case of Spain

This paper examines the consequences of introducing a cash-in-advance constraint into a small open economy business cycle model for the Spanish case. A business cycle model is built extending Correia, Neves and Rebelo's (1995) small open economy framework and Cooley and Hansen's (1995) monetary economy. Money is introduced through a cash-in-advance constraint. The stochastic simulation of the model and its comparison to Spanish data show that the model is able to mimic i) the Dolado et al. puzzle, that is, the high volatility of private consumption for this economy; ii) the Dunlop-Tarshis observation, i.e., the negative correlation between real wages and hours worked; and iii) some cyclical features of the nominal dimension.     

The Relative Valuation of Caps and Swaptions: Theory and Empirical Evidence

Although traded as distinct products, caps and swaptions are linked by no-arbitrage relations through the correlation structure of interest rates. Using a string market model, we solve for the correlation matrix implied by swaptions and examine the relative valuation of caps and swaptions. We find that swaption prices are generated by four factors and that implied correlations are lower than historical correlations. Long-dated swaptions appear mispriced and there were major pricing distortions during the 1998 hedge-fund crisis. Cap prices periodically deviate significantly from the no-arbitrage values implied by the swaptions market.     

Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words

Most of the empirical literature on exchange rate regimes uses the IMF de jure classification based on the regime announced by the governments, despite the recognized inconsistencies between reported and actual policies in many cases. To address this problem, we construct a de facto classification based on data on exchange rates and international reserves from all IMF-reporting countries over the period 1974-2000, which we believe provides a meaningful alternative for future empirical work on the topic. The classification sheds new light on several stylized facts previously reported in the literature. In particular, we find that the de facto pegs have remained stable throughout the last decade, although an increasing number of them shy away from an explicit commitment to a fixed regime (“hidden pegs”). We confirm the hollowing out hypothesis but show that it does not apply to countries with limited access to capital markets. We also find that pure floats are associated with only relatively minor nominal exchange rate volatility and that the recent increase in the number of de jure floats goes hand in hand with an increase in the number of de facto dirty floats (“fear of floating”).     

Endogenous technology and sectoral productivity: Chile 1962–1982

The choice of sectoral productivity in Chile is studied within the choice of technique approach. The choice of production techniques is an economic problem in that the techniques implemented at any time reflect the prevailing economic environment, as well as its history. Incorporating this choice in the analysis adds another channel through which market conditions can influence productivity while neglecting this simple fact leads to a distorted view of the production process. This view of production is applied here to present an econometric framework for estimating sectoral production functions. The derived function has the form of a Cobb-Douglas function, but its coefficients are allowed to vary in response to the economic environment and to factor utilization. The results show the important effect that macro, external, and institutional shocks have on the level and cyclical behavior of productivity.The editor of this paper was Jaime de Melo.