Theories of choice under risk: Insights from financial markets

To date, the plausibility of theories of choice under risk hinges are mainly on experimental evidence. This paper devises and implements an approach amenable of assessing the performance of three families of models (expected utility, rank-dependent expected utility, and the cumulative prospect theory) using information from financial asset markets. Our findings unequivocally support reference-point dependence, diminishing marginal sensitivity, loss aversion, and nonlinear weighting of (gain and loss) physical probabilities. The empirical observations are found to be robust to, inter alia, the parameterization of the utility and probability weighting functions, “day-of-the-week effects”, the choice of a reference point, and the introduction of possible, low-probability market crashes (peso component).     

Emerging Issues in Retailing Research

Retailing practice and the research resulting have experienced significant changes in recent years. This article reflects on Journal of Retailing articles published during our editorial tenure (2002–2007). Although Journal of Retailing publishes articles on many retailing topics, they have chosen four categories that they believe has had the largest impact on retailing research during that time, and the potential for the greatest contribution in the future: Growth of the Internet and e-commerce; branding and customer loyalty; service success strategies; and behavioral issues in pricing and patronage. Several illustrative studies are highlighted in each category, and directions for future research are provided.     

Strategic currency hedging and global portfolio investments upside down

The literature on the convenience of currency hedging of international portfolio investments has not reached a final verdict. There are arguments for (Perold and Schulman [Perold, A.F. and Schulman, E.C. (1988). The free lunch in currency hedging: implications for investment policy and performance standards, Financial Analysts Journal, May/June Vol. 44, No. 3: 45-52]) and against (Froot [Froot, K. (1993). Currency hedging over long horizons. NBER Working Paper 4355.] and Campbell et al. [Campbell, J.Y., Viceira, L.M. and White, J.S. (2003). Foreign currency for long-term investors. The Economic Journal, Volume 113, Number 486, (March), pp. C1-C25(1)]). This paper analyzes the perspective of global investors based in emerging markets, for which hedging should imply increasing expected returns. The question thus is whether currency hedging is a “free lunch” in this case. No free lunch exists, as it turns out. Hard currencies act as natural hedges against global (and local) portfolio losses, since they tend to appreciate with respect to emerging market currencies when the world portfolio return is negative. Therefore, in this case currency hedging increases volatility—although also increasing expected returns. This result is likely to hold generally for relatively open economies with flexible exchange rate regimes.     

Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging

In contrast to a posterior analysis given a particular sampling model, posterior model probabilities in the context of model uncertainty are typically rather sensitive to the specification of the prior. In particular, ‘diffuse’ priors on model-specific parameters can lead to quite unexpected consequences. Here we focus on the practically relevant situation where we need to entertain a (large) number of sampling models and we have (or wish to use) little or no subjective prior information. We aim at providing an ‘automatic’ or ‘benchmark’ prior structure that can be used in such cases. We focus on the normal linear regression model with uncertainty in the choice of regressors. We propose a partly non-informative prior structure related to a natural conjugate g-prior specification, where the amount of subjective information requested from the user is limited to the choice of a single scalar hyperparameter g_0j. The consequences of different choices for g_0j are examined. We investigate theoretical properties, such as consistency of the implied Bayesian procedure. Links with classical information criteria are provided. More importantly, we examine the finite sample implications of several choices of g_0j in a simulation study. The use of the MC³ algorithm of Madigan and York (Int. Stat. Rev. 63 (1995) 215), combined with efficient coding in Fortran, makes it feasible to conduct large simulations. In addition to posterior criteria, we shall also compare the predictive performance of different priors. A classic example concerning the economics of crime will also be provided and contrasted with results in the literature. The main findings of the paper will lead us to propose a ‘benchmark’ prior specification in a linear regression context with model uncertainty.     

Dreams,fairy tales,animals, and cars

With growing interest in qualitative research beyond its popular use in focus groups, a greater appreciation of the potential of projective techniques is recommended. Examples are given to illustrate the variety of methods available, and how they may be practically applied in research projects to elicit rich information about perception of products and brands, and about characteristics of respondents.     

Private Pension Funds in Oligopolistic Financial Markets: Some qualifications to conventional theory of financial development

The paper inquires into the efficiency of financial development policies in economies where the financial sector is based on oligopolistic commercial banking. In this case, interest rates on deposits may be set below the level required to achieve balance of payments equilibrium, so that banks are able to exact a risk free financial margin in their holdings of government bonds. Under such circumstances, banks lack incentives to place indirect debt in domestic security markets, as a means of providing long-term finance; and private capital market deepening is hindered. Pension fund privatisation, in this institutional environment, does not relieve public finances, because the government must act as issuer of last resort in order to stabilise the currency. This point is illustrated with Mexican data, and some policy measures to deal with this situation in developing economies are proposed.     

An ethical argument for host country workforce training and development in the expatriate management assignment

This paper seeks to establish the ethical foundation of MNCs' responsibility for providing host country workforce (HCW) preparation and training attendant to the new expatriate management assignment. It argues that such moral responsibility arises from a set of correlative duties which MNCs acquire as business institutions. They include duties involving the expatriate manager, the HCW, and the host nation to (1) assist all employees, including the expatriate manager, in the successful execution of their assignments; (2) avoid the semblance of discriminatory treatment; (3) encourage full status integration into a global economy; (4) foster personal enlightenment and self-enrichment; (5) help individuals develop useful, marketable skills; (6) contribute to the development of a greater and more functional national labor skill base; and (7) encourage a long-term focus on creating enduring value for a maximum number of stakeholders, rather than upon short-term and shortsighted profit for only a few. Some important cautions and considerations related to HCW training implementation are then discussed.Charles M. Vance, associate professor of management at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles, has both a domestic and international focus on human resource management and learning system design to enhance organizational performance. He has several publications, and his new book,Mastering Management Education (Sage Publications), is to be published in 1993.Eduardo S. Paderon is the Associate Dean of the Hagan School of Business of Iona College in New Rochelle, New York. He teaches graduate courses on Business Policy and Business and Society. His writings and other scholarly activities, including presentations at national and international conferences, focus on business ethics and cross-cultural value studies.