Determinants of GNMA Mortgage Prices

This paper contrasts three different arbitrage-based models for the pricing of GNMA securities, and analyzes the effect of different assumptions about the call policy pursued by the issuers of the underlying mortgages. Both the nature of the interest-rate uncertainty captured by the model and the assumed call policy have a major effect on the yield differentials predicted between GNMA securities and Treasury Bonds.     

Affective predictors of the effectiveness of training moderated by the cognitive complexity of expected competencies

Research in training, development and education (TD&E) in organizations has produced important results in the last two decades. Evaluation of TD&E has been a special focus of this research, which has resulted in the production of relevant predictive models. The present study has the aim of testing a model of effectiveness of training on work, with the trainee's motivation and satisfaction with training as the antecedent variables and the type of training as a moderator variable. Data collection with 600 participants in a Brazilian bank was conducted with measurement scales before training, at its end and three months later. The data were analyzed through structural equation modeling. The results indicate that the motivation of the trainee and satisfaction with training are predictors of its effectiveness on work and that the type of training affects this predictive relationship. The key feature of the type of training was the cognitive complexity of expected competencies.     

Firm and Group Dynamics in the Small and Medium Enterprise Sector in Indonesia

This paper discusses the role of clusters and subcontracting as factors in the evolution of small and medium firms in Indonesia during the last quarter century. It is argued that a number of such firms have become successful exporters of rattan furniture, wood furniture and garments on the strength of subcontracting relationships with foreign investors and buyers as well as agglomeration economies achieved by clustering in selected locations. Examples are provided to show that clustered enterprises are more likely to be in the exports business and to adopt product and process innovations as compared to more dispersed firms. Public policy support for fostering subcontracting links and cluster formation is also discussed.     

Joint estimation using revealed and stated preference data: An application using a national forest

We combine contingent behaviour with travel cost data to estimate the change in the recreational use value of a National Forest due to quality and price changes. Instead of the usual improvement scenario, a hypothetical deterioration in the conditions of the forest due to a fire is considered. A dataset containing five observations for each respondent enabled the estimation of three models for which the number of scenarios differed. The results show that visitors are sensitive to price and quality changes and that in the forest fire scenario the intended number of trips would be reduced and that respondents would experience a welfare loss. Signs of inconsistency between preferences expressed by revealed and intended behaviour were found. This research also provides some indications that strategic bias affects answers to price changes.     

A New Typology for Economic Sectors with a view to Policy Implications

This paper is an attempt to tease out a typology of economic sectors based on a systems approach to innovation and economic growth that may be useful for policy analysis. The typology explored here revolves around novel products rather than ethereal knowledge-producing entities. This insight goes back to Allyn Young (1928) and Joseph Schumpeter (1934) who argued that the introduction of new goods was the engine of economic growth. More precisely, our typology of sectors focuses on novel products which are efficiency-enhancing within and between sectors through the market mechanism. The scheme revolves around the relationship between 'Enabling' and 'Recipient' sectors (which gives the typology its name: ER), and offers a lens for viewing and interpreting a substantive part of the mechanics of modern economic growth. The last part of the paper briefly discusses a few immediate policy implications, although it has the potential for greater use and value in this regard.     

Antitrust and Liberalization in developing countries

A number of developing countries around the world have recently liberalized once highly protected regimes through privatization programs and by reducing impediments to market trade. Many of these countries have adopted an antitrust policy as an integral component of their market reforms. Recent assessments of trade liberalization programs show disappointing results. Such outcomes contradict long-held beliefs that free trade is sufficient to generate competitive outcomes in small economies. Antitrust advocates view these underwhelming achievements as further justification for extensive antitrust enforcement. We argue instead that the failure of liberalization suggests not the correctness but the inappropriateness of the enactment of antitrust policies. The continuance of market power after liberalization is due primarily to lobbying activities by producer interest groups to establish nontariff barriers rather than to collusive practices among producers. Interest groups find cartelization and rent seeking as substitutes in raising prices above competitive levels. Accordingly, the establishment of antitrust serves to improve the relative attractiveness of seeking nontariff barriers. Antitrust policies are ineffective in challenging the emergence of nontariff barriers and thus may have the unintended consequence of promoting anticompetitive activities.     

油气公司采用根本原因分析方法提高设备的可靠性

你的继续改进工作在取得初步成效后,是否仍以预定计划为中心而未取得实际进展?你们公司是否把长期存在的问题作为开展工作的动力?你们是否在不同的场所经常重复分析同样的问题?在你们公司里,对于什么是可靠性的问题,每个人是否都有不同的理解?我们公司在拉丁美洲5个国家中都有许多油田和气田,并且都遇到了困难,为了创造持久的利润,我们决定对不断改进的方法全面地进行标准化。改进的方法有:(1)把问题和机遇按轻重缓急依次排列起来;(2)分析这些问题和机遇的根本原因(RC);(3)开发和实施解决方法;(4)继续研究上述各种方法的利润。     

EFFECTS OF ALTERNATIVE CHINESE POLICIES ON THE WORLD GRAINS MARKET

The implications for the world grains market of a reduction in China's domestic absorption, and of the removal of its key manufacturing protection, are analysed in this paper. These policy changes are modelled both alone and together with grain self-sufficiency in China and with reduction in farm support in the US and EC. In themselves, the reduction in absorption and removal of manufacturing protection in China would have only marginal effects on the world grains market. If, however, China were to achieve grain self-sufficiency while adopting these macroeconomic and trade policies, world grain prices and trade would fall considerably. In contrast, even a partial removal of protection in the US and EC, simultaneously with the above Chinese macroeconomic and trade policy changes, could substantially increase world grain prices and trade. These positive effects would be considerably reduced if at the same time China were to become self-sufficient in grain.     

High-growth recoveries, inventories and the Great Moderation

We present evidence about the disappearance of the high-growth recoveries from recessions with intense job creation typically observed until the eighties. This result matches the belief that recessions now have an L-shape as opposed to the old-time recessions that always had a V-shape. We also show how this change in business cycle dynamics can explain part of the Great Moderation. We postulate that these two phenomena may be due to changes in inventory management brought about by improvements in information and communications technologies.