Switching regressions and activity analysis: A new approach to frontier estimation

We explore an approach to production frontier estimation based on the direct study of the primary activities in linear technologies. Technologies with smoother isoquants can be thought of as the limit of a linear technology when the number of activities grows to infinity.     

LATIN AMERICAN EXCHANGE RATE DEPENDENCIES: A REGULAR VINE COPULA APPROACH

This study implements a regular vine copula methodology to evaluate the level of contagion among the exchange rates of six Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru) from June 2005 to April 2012. We measure contagion in terms of tail dependence coefficients, following Fratzscher's (1999) definition of contagion as interdependence. Our results indicate that these countries are divided into two blocks. The first block consists of Brazil, Colombia, Chile, and Mexico, whose exchange rates exhibit the largest dependence coefficients, and the second block consists of Argentina and Peru, whose exchange rate dependence coefficients with other Latin American countries are low. We also found that most of the Latin American exchange rate pairs exhibit asymmetric behaviors characterized by nonsignificant upper tail dependence and significant lower tail dependence. These results imply that there exists contagion in Latin American exchange rates in periods of large appreciations, whereas there is no evidence of contagion during periods of currency depreciation. This empirical regularity may reflect the “fear of appreciation” in emerging economies identified by Levy‐Yeyati, Sturzenegger, and Gluzmann (2013). (JEL C32, C51, E42)     

Protecting software development projects against underestimation

When a project in progress has been seriously underestimated, it is essential to figure out how much additional effort is required to complete it within its original scope and delivery date. This article posits that project contingencies should be based on the amount it will take to recover from the underestimation, and not on the amount that would have been required had the project been adequately planned from the beginning, and that these funds should be administered at the portfolio level. A model to calculate the required funds is developed.     

On the value of information in the presence of moral hazard

This paper shows that the marginal value of a “small amount of non-output information” is generally non-positive in the context of the standard principal-agent model involving moral hazard, which suggests a non-concavity in the value of information. However, when both the principal and the agent are risk neutral, even a small amount of non-output information may exhibit a positive incremental value in presence of a liability constraint.      

Performance Heterogeneity in Latin America: An Investigation into the Transient Effects of Country of Origin

The heterogeneity of firm performance has been studied from the perspective of factors, including the firm effect, the industry effect, and the country effect. This study emphasizes the importance of country transient effects in light of the volatility present in Latin American countries. Variance decomposition was carried out for the economic and operational performance of five countries in the period from 1998 to 2007. The results show that country effects matter for Latin America, its transient effects increase in periods of higher turbulence, and have a greater effect on a firms' economic performance than on its operational performance.     

Comprehensive Homeowners Microinsurance in Brazil: Estimation of Pricing and Market Potential

This study examines the question of comprehensive microinsurance for Brazilian homeowners. In particular, the study calculates (i) pricing for selected types of microinsurance homeowner's coverages and insured amounts and (ii) the estimated market potential of this product. The Brazilian agency charged with responsibility for regulation of private insurance, SUSEP, has determined that microinsurance should be aimed at families with a monthly per capita income of up to two minimum wages. According to this criterion, the study finds that there are more than 42 million households in Brazil eligible for microinsurance. The study also finds that microinsurance premiums for these households would be very low (US $0.97 to 2.03 per month)—less than 1% of average household income. This type of insurance would certainly be viable, considering the calculated market size of approximately US $780 million per year. These figures show that there is significant potential for the expansion of the microinsurance market in Brazil.     

A No‐Arbitrage Fractional Cointegration Model for Futures and Spot Daily Ranges

The no‐arbitrage relation between futures and spot prices implies an analogous relation between futures and spot daily ranges. The long‐memory features of the range‐based volatility estimators are analyzed, and fractional cointegration is tested in a semi‐parametric framework. In particular, the no‐arbitrage condition is used to derive a long‐run relationship between volatility measures and to justify the use of a fractional vector error correction model (FVECM) to study their dynamic relationship. The out‐of‐sample forecasting superiority of FVECM, with respect to alternative models, is documented. The results highlight the importance of incorporating the long‐run equilibrium in volatilities to obtain better forecasts, given the information content in the volatility of futures prices. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 33:77–102, 2013     

Brazilian Consumer Preferences for Processed Tomato Packaging Using Conjoint Analysis

Brazil is the largest producer and consumer of processed tomato products in Latin America. However, the consumption preferences related to this product are poorly studied. The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of certain characteristics of processed tomato product packaging on Brazilian consumer preferences. The revised Personal Involvement Inventory (PII) and conjoint analysis (CA) were applied to 206 consumers in Brazil. Four packaging attributes were evaluated: colour (green, red, and yellow); material (sachets, tin, and brick carton packaging); the presence of additional information; and the presence of “easy-open” devices. The CA technique showed that in general, the Brazilian participants were influenced positively by red brick carton and sachet packaging and by the presence of additional information and a device that facilitated opening the package. The results presented in this study are useful for the food industry to develop packaging and marketing strategies using consumer profiles.     

Trade and the Effect of Public Investment on Regional Inequalities in Heterogeneously Integrated Areas

Regional integration, it is argued, challenges the distribution of economic activity among regions. However, the government role in shifting the patterns of regional inequalities is still under debate and has received small comprehensive empirical evidence. This paper examines the hypothesis of trade as channelling public investment and, thus, perpetuating regional inequalities. We argue that the interplay of public and private investment plays a key role in stimulating trade and economic activity. To avoid problems of cross‐country heterogeneity and comparability this study examines data for two countries; Mexico and Spain, both followers of trade integration arrangements. Findings indicate that regional inequalities in Mexico are significantly explained by differences in export capacity serving to boost private investment whereas inequalities in Spain are appreciably driven by previous endowments and private capital formation.