Long-Term Forecasts for Tourism Industries: the Case of Austria and Switzerland

This paper outlines the design of a causal econometric model for world tourism. The model allows for long-term forecasts of outgoing and incoming tourism for each country considered (here with a special emphasis on Austria and Switzerland) in a consistent international model setting. The main forecast result in the baseline scenario is that Austria gains market share in the long run, Switzerland loses significant market share. The growing tourism import demand resulting from the completion of the international European Community (EC)- market is widely allocated to the EC-member countries and the overseas destinations in the form of additional export growth. The non-EC member Austria loses market share. Switzerland would have even greater market share losses compared to the baseline scenario.     

Designing a tool for service-dominant strategies using action design research

Both academic research and industrial practice recognize difficulties in translating the principles of service-dominant (S-D) business logic into actionable insights for practitioners, particularly when considering S-D logic at the strategic level. To address this problem, this paper focuses on the conceptualization, formulation, and communication of an S-D business strategy. From the theoretical standpoint, we conceptualize the elements of an S-D strategy by filtering the scattered literature about S-D strategy and business models through the lenses of traditional views of business strategy. From the practical standpoint, we develop a tool embedding our conceptual development to support practitioners in the formulation and communication of S-D strategy. While traditional strategy tools take a value chain perspective, our tool helps to position the focal organization at the center of a complex ecosystem of partners who are co-creating value. Following the principles of action design research, the tool is developed and evaluated in close collaboration with practice in a case study in the financial services industry. Consequently, this paper contributes both to the conceptual and the practical operationalization of S-D logic at the strategic level.     

A Theoretical Analysis of the Influence of Money Injections on Risk Taking in Football Clubs

This paper analyzes the adverse incentive effects produced by money injections of benefactors [sugar daddies (SD)]. We show that the existence of a SD induces the club to choose a riskier investment strategy and the more the SD commits to bailout the club, the more the clubs’ optimal level of riskiness increases. Moreover, a private SD bails out the club less often than a public SD. Our model further shows that a ‘too‐big‐to‐fail’ phenomenon exists because it is optimal to always bailout a club if its market size is sufficiently large.     

Stress-testing US bank holding companies: A dynamic panel quantile regression approach

We propose an econometric framework for estimating capital shortfalls of bank holding companies (BHCs) under pre-specified macroeconomic scenarios. To capture the nonlinear dynamics of bank losses and revenues during periods of financial stress, we use a fixed effects quantile autoregressive (FE-QAR) model with exogenous macroeconomic covariates, an approach that delivers a superior out-of-sample forecasting performance relative to the standard linear framework. According to the out-of-sample forecasts, the realized net charge-offs during the 2007–09 crisis fall within the multi-step-ahead density forecasts implied by the FE-QAR model, but are frequently outside the density forecasts generated using the corresponding linear model. This difference reflects the fact that the linear specification substantially underestimates loan losses, especially for real estate loan portfolios. Employing the macroeconomic stress scenario used in CCAR 2012, we use the density forecasts generated by the FE-QAR model to simulate capital shortfalls for a panel of large BHCs. For almost all institutions in the sample, the FE-QAR model generates capital shortfalls that are considerably higher than those implied by its linear counterpart, which suggests that our approach has the potential to detect emerging vulnerabilities in the financial system.     

The production network: An efficient tool in modelling territorial development plans

A rational distribution of productive forces on a country's territory is directly reflected in the saving of social labour, with all its well-known advantages. When one considers this, the importance of modelling territorial forecasts as realistically as possible becomes obvious. Modelling and optimizing a forecast can be done by means of the production network.Technical Economic Aspects. By territorial production network the authors of this paper mean a unitary system of manufacturing centres, in a given industrial sub-branch, which find themselves in a permanently interconditioning position and are distributed throughout the country in such a way that, on the sale of national economy, there should exist a minimum effort of social labour (materialised in investment outlay and in production and circulation expenditure) for meetong home requirements of productive and non-productive consumption and for providing efficient exports. The minimization of the social labour effort constitutes the criterion function of the model.Social Political Aspects. The optimum solution for the sub-branch might not always be adopted on the scale of national economy. This would happen since, in the process of optimizing the production network for each individual industry, a great number of optimal locations might be concentrated at a limited number of geographical points, thus generating territorial disparities in the economy as a whole. To prevent this happening, it becomes necessary, after determining from the economic standpoint the best production network for all industrial sub-branches, to find a rational way of socially harmonizing the people's material and cultural standards in all the various areas of the country. One might, for instance, harmonize the inter-zonal net industrial output per capita, since the net output represents in fact the added value created in the social process of extended reproduction.A solution to this problem will secure an efficient dynamic equilibrium of the industrial output potential between the various areas of a country and per successive plan stages and, implicitly, a faster rise in living standards for the population in the economically less developed areas.