Aiding violence or peace? The impact of foreign aid on the risk of civil conflict in sub-Saharan Africa

This paper considers the impact of foreign aid flows on the risk of civil conflict. We improve on earlier studies on this topic by addressing the problem of the endogenous aid allocation using GDP levels of donor countries as instruments. A more structural addition to the literature is that we efficiently control for unobserved country specific effects in typical conflict onset and conflict continuation models by first differencing. The literature often overlooks the dynamic nature of these types of models, thereby forcing unlikely i.i.d. structures on the error terms implicitly.¹ As a consequence, malfunctioning institutions, deep-rooted political grievances, or any other obvious, yet unobserved and time persistent determinants of war are simply assumed away. We find a statistically significant and economically important negative effect of foreign aid flows on the probability of ongoing civil conflicts to continue (the continuation probability), such that increasing aid flows tends to decrease civil conflict duration. We do not find a significant relationship between aid flows and the probability of civil conflicts to start (the onset probability).     

Effects of driver nationality and road characteristics on accident fault risk

This paper investigates the combined effect of driver nationality and several road characteristics (area type, at or not at junction, lighting conditions) on accident fault risk. Data from the national accident database of Greece are used to calculate accident relative fault risk rates under induced exposure assumptions. A log-linear analysis is then used to examine first- and higher-order effects within three or more variable groups. The examination of the second-order interaction among the accident fault risks of various driver nationalities at or not at junction was found to be significant. On the contrary, the respective combined effects of area type and lighting conditions were found to be non-significant. It was also shown that roadway features do not affect accident fault risk in a combined way. Results clearly indicate that foreign drivers in Greece are at increased risk. Moreover, foreign nationalities corresponding to permanent residents (i.e. Greeks and Albanians) appear to be at lower fault risk compared to foreign nationalities corresponding to tourists and visitors (e.g. EU Nationals). The effects of the various road characteristics do not modify these general trends.     

Entertainment in retailing: The influences of advanced technologies

In recent years, the importance of an enjoyable experience during the shopping activity increased. As a consequence, many researchers are focusing on the best application of enjoyable elements in the points of sale in order to maintain existing consumers and attract new ones.The aim of this paper is to analyze how the introduction of advanced technologies modifies the retailing context and affects consumers shopping experience. In particular, three aspects of our results emerge from a theoretical standpoint: new advantages for retailers (the possibility to achieve fast information on consumer behavior and preferences); the improvement of the point of sale; and the positive influences on consumers shopping experience.     

Futures studies in Italy and The limits to growth

This article describes the introduction of futures studies to Italy and especially the contribution of Aurelio Peccei, the founder of the Club of Rome and an inspiration behind The limits to growth. To set the scene, the author shows how Italian futures studies absorbed technocratic and visionary ideas from prospective studies in France, particularly those of Bertrand de Jouvenel and Gaston Berger. The author explains Aurelio Peccei's role in promoting Limits and the Club of Rome. She reflects also on her own personal involvement with Peccei, as a friend, as member of the Club of Rome, and as a long-standing participant in the Italian and worldwide futures movement.