Design efficiency for non‐market valuation with choice modelling: how to measure it,what to report and why*

We review the basic principles for the evaluation of design efficiency in discrete choice modelling with a focus on efficiency of WTP estimates from the multinomial logit model. The discussion is developed under the realistic assumption that researchers can plausibly define a prior belief on the range of values for the utility coefficients. D‐, A‐, B‐, S‐ and C‐errors are compared as measures of design performance in applied studies and their rationale is discussed. An empirical example based on the generation and comparison of fifteen separate designs from a common set of assumptions illustrates the relevant considerations to the context of non‐market valuation, with particular emphasis placed on C‐efficiency. Conclusions are drawn for the practice of reporting in non‐market valuation and for future work on design research.     

Cost of capital and public loan guarantees to small firms

In this paper, we study the determinants of the spread charged by banks under a UK policy intervention scheme, aimed at supporting access to the credit market for small firms through guarantee backed loans. We exploit a unique dataset containing data on 29,266 guarantee backed loans under the UK SFLG scheme over the period 2000 to 2005. Results suggest that lower spreads are offered for loans of larger amounts and higher durations, for service firms, for larger firms, and for those located in the most advanced regions. Higher spreads are applied to high-tech manufacturing firms and to loans issued for working capital purposes. We also find that the presence of other extant debt is associated with a relatively higher spread and that this effect is especially significant for the subset of firms that have reached a maximum debt capacity based on collateralized assets. Further, we also find that the higher the incidence of the publicly guaranteed debt over the total amount of outstanding loans, the lower, on average, the spread. However, an increase in the guaranteed coverage leads to a contraction in the spread only for loans aimed at covering working capital needs rather than investments.     

A Note on Loadings and Deductibles: Can a Vicious Circle Arise?

In a recently reprinted paper Borch wonders whether an increase in insurance loadings, together with the consequent increase in customers' deductibles, may be the start of a vicious circle, in which higher deductibles produce higher loadings and vice versa, ad infinitum. This paper rules out the possibility of a vicious circle, in a model à la Borch. First of all, increases in costs of the type considered by Borch are not necessarily followed by increases in loadings. Second, increases in loadings are not necessarily followed by increases in deductibles, since in equilibrium insurance may be Giffen. Last but not least, loadings do not increase with deductibles, because the only viable equilibrium is a Stackelberg one.     

A Value at Risk Approach to Background Risk

This paper studies the effects of an uninsurable background risk (BR) on the demand for insurance (proportional and with deductible). We study both the case of BR uncorrelated with the insurable one and the perfectly correlated one, in a Gaussian world. In order to perform our study, we exploit the new risk measure known as Value at Risk (VaR) and consider insurance contracts which are Mean-VaR efficient. We obtain results which depend on the parameters (moments) of both risks and on the magnitude of loadings charged by the insurance company, instead of depending on the risk attitudes of the insured, such as risk aversion and prudence.We demonstrate that, if loadings are not too high, the demand for insurance increases with positively correlated BR; it decreases with BR negatively correlated if the latter is less risky than the insurable one (in this case it can even go to zero, if loadings are too high); it goes to zero with BR which is negatively correlated and more risky than the insurable one.     

On the short-time behavior of the implied volatility for jump-diffusion models with stochastic volatility

In this paper we use Malliavin calculus techniques to obtain an expression for the short-time behavior of the at-the-money implied volatility skew for a generalization of the Bates model, where the volatility does not need to be a diffusion or a Markov process, as the examples in Sect. 7 show. This expression depends on the derivative of the volatility in the sense of Malliavin calculus. E. Alòs’ research is supported by grants MEC FEDER MTM 2006 06427 and SEJ2006-13537. J.A. León’s research is partially supported by the CONACyT grant 45684-F. J. Vives’ research is supported by grant MEC FEDER MTM 2006 06427.     

Deriving and Testing Efficient Estimates of WTP Distributions in Destination Choice Models

Estimation of welfare measures is often a dominant driver in the empirical literature on nonmarket valuation. To this end, qualitative choice models based on random utility theory have been widely employed in outdoor recreation studies. A frequent goal of applied studies has been the estimation of welfare changes associated with site attribute changes at recreation sites in order to inform regulatory policy and resource management. We review the evolution of the methodology of random utility theory in this field with a focus on taste heterogeneity models and then focus on the recent proposal of specifying utility in the WTP-space (Train K, Weeks M (2005) Discrete choice models in preference space and willing-to-pay space. In: Scarpa R, Alberini A (eds) Applications of simulation methods in environmental and resource economics, chapter 1. Springer, Dordrecht, pp 1–16). Our empirical application is on outdoor alpine recreation data. We emphasize the efficiency and direct testing that using the maximum simulated likelihood estimator affords to practitioners using the WTP-space approach, and illustrate these with examples.     

Factors that influence the consumption of food outside the home in Brazil

The food sector has taken on an unprecedented dynamism in recent years. The processing and distribution of food, although heavily influenced by tradition, have seen intensive innovations, leading to changes in the way individuals consume. One of these changes is the consistent growth of the habit of eating outside the home. Consuming food outside the home involves a number of practices such as eating at commercial establishments that specialize in food (restaurants, fast food restaurants and snack bars) and those that offer food as a part of their services (hotels, in‐flight meals), and non‐commercial alternatives such as the homes of family and friends. In order to describe the eating habits of consumers in the town of Lavras in Minas Gerais State, Brazil, especially when it comes to eating outside the home, a quantitative study was conducted, with 413 questionnaires being distributed by convenience sampling. Among the main results are: (a) a search for variety as a motivator for eating outside the home; (b) convenience as an important element on many occasions of consumption; (c) more intensive consumption and more favourable attitudes towards eating out on the part of younger people, people with higher incomes, no children and a higher degree of schooling; (d) importance of paying for food by the kilo. When compared with a study conducted in England, important similarities were identified in socio‐demographic influences, although the cultural factors are notable when it comes to dishes and the types of eating establishment. The growing habit of eating out has therefore become a worldwide phenomenon, but with cultural and regional differences that have led to different rhythms in terms of change and the way food is supplied. The recovery of embedded cultural habits, with increased value being given to slow food, traditional dishes and tradition itself, appears to co‐exist with a productivity model of food courts, pasteurization and accessible prices. The occasion for consumption, which may be understood as the dichotomies of ‘weekday versus weekend’ or ‘convenience versus leisure’, is an important element that influences consumer behaviours. The undertaking of a cross‐cultural comparative study can be seen as an important step in this field of research.     

Quasi‐Nationalisation in the UK Banking Crisis: A Problematic Policy Option

The systemic banking crisis in 2008 led to the quasi‐nationalisation of two UK listed banks: The Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group (National Audit Office, 2010). Using property rights and agency theory as the theoretical frameworks, this paper analyses whether the quasi‐nationalisation of these banks has been successful. It is argued that as a rescue mechanism, quasi‐nationalisation was a positive development. However, questions arise over its effect as an instrument of banking reform. The State's arm's length approach to management represents a lost opportunity to change the culture of profitability over people that contributed to the banking crisis.