The marketing of hamburger buns: An improved model for prediction

The Spring 1974 issue of this Journal published a paper that presented a model for predicting sales of hamburger buns. This article evaluates the model on the bases of statistical reporting, model specification, and implications for production policy. In addition, using the same data used for the original model, an improved model is developed whereby there is a 50% increase in explained variance.     

Effects of information format and similarity among alternatives on consumer choice processes

This study explores how similarity among alternatives and a new information format, branching, affect consumer choice processes. A branching format organizes real, physically present objects by attribute levels. Thirty-six female consumers made six choices from sets of products in a laboratory setting and provided concurrent verbal protocols. Compared to a brand format, a branching format elicited fewer comparisons, had no effect on cognitive effort other than comparisons, and had no effect on intention to choose the best. Compared to the similar set, the dissimilar set elicited more comparisons, lower levels of other measures of cognitive effort, and less intention to choose the best. These effects of similarity and information format were consistent across the two product classes tested. However, the effects of information format and similarity on comparisons differed from their effects on other measures of cognitive effort. She received her Ph.D. from Columbia University. Her research on consumer choice processes has been published in Advances in Consumer Research and Psychology and Marketing.     

CEO compensation and the seasoned equity offering decision

Empirical research on seasoned equity offerings indicates that the decision to make an SEO typically engenders a decline in firm value, as investors interpret this decision as a signal of poor financial health or that the stock is overpriced. Here, we add to the literature by analyzing the short‐term market reaction to SEO announcements and the chief executive officer's link to firm performance (i.e. the proportion of CEO equity‐based compensation). Results support the hypothesis that investors are more likely to view the announcement of an SEO as a last resort source of capital when the proportion of CEO equity‐based compensation is high. In such cases of high equity‐based compensation, our findings indicate that the SEO announcement provides an incremental signal of financial distress above that provided by financial statements. We also find this relationship (last resort signal) to be stronger when large information asymmetries exist between management and investors. Thus, managers should consider the ramifications of executive compensation structure when considering whether to make an SEO. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The development of the Personality Audit: a psychodynamic multiple feedback assessment instrument

The Personality Audit (PA) was developed to meet a need for a relatively simple multiple feedback instrument that could clarify the various motivational needs of executives. Using a psychodynamic approach to leadership, the PA allows the test-taker to assess him- or herself in seven personality dimensions important in human behaviour and to identify personal ‘blind spots’. The resulting insights can be used to formulate appropriate leadership development goals.

The objective of this paper is to describe the design and psychometric properties of the PA. This instrument, in contrast with other tools that can be used to clarify the inner theatre of individuals, is designed not only to report information given by the test-taker but also to reflect the perceptions of observers representing both the test-taker's public and private spheres. This paper describes in detail the conceptual foundations of the questionnaire, the psychometric methods used to confirm its validity and reliability, and possible directions for future research.     

Testing Alternative Regression Frameworks for Predictive Modeling of Health Care Costs

Predictive models of health care costs have become mainstream in much health care actuarial work. The Affordable Care Act requires the use of predictive modeling-based risk-adjuster models to transfer revenue between different health exchange participants. Although the predictive accuracy of these models has been investigated in a number of studies, the accuracy and use of models for applications other than risk adjustment have not been the subject of much investigation. We investigate predictive modeling of future health care costs using several statistical techniques. Our analysis was performed based on a dataset of 30,000 insureds containing claims information from two contiguous years. The dataset contains more than 100 covariates for each insured, including detailed breakdown of past costs and causes encoded via coexisting condition flags. We discuss statistical models for the relationship between next-year costs and medical and cost information to predict the mean and quantiles of future cost, ranking risks and identifying most predictive covariates. A comparison of multiple models is presented, including (in addition to the traditional linear regression model underlying risk adjusters) Lasso GLM, multivariate adaptive regression splines, random forests, decision trees, and boosted trees. A detailed performance analysis shows that the traditional regression approach does not perform well and that more accurate models are possible.     

How people pay: Evidence from grocery store data

Empirical evidence based on grocery store transaction data shows that consumer payment behavior at the point of sale is important for understanding models of money demand. There are statistically significant effects of transaction costs, opportunity costs, and product characteristics on the choice of payment instrument, which then, in turn, affect money demand. These results emphasize the overlap between the work of empirical researchers in payment choice and theoretical modelers of monetary economics and should inform both literatures.     

State income tax policy and geographic labour force mobility in the United States

"This study empirically investigates the impact of state income tax policy on U.S. interstate migration [of the labor force] for the period 1985-89. It finds that people vote with their feet and prefer to move so as to minimize their state income tax liabilities."     

Measuring Achievement and Shortfall Improvements in a Consistent Way

In measuring improvements over time of bounded variables, one can focus on achievements or shortfalls. However, rankings of alternative social states in terms of achievements and shortfalls do not necessarily mirror one another. We characterize axiomatically different families of achievement and shortfall improvement indices, and present the necessary and sufficient conditions under which they rank social states in a consistent way. Empirical illustrations using child mortality data from South Africa suggest that consistency between achievement and shortfall improvements in standards of living is not only a matter of theoretical import but is also a problem that can be encountered in practice to a large extent.     

Cultivating Ecological Knowledge for Corporate Sustainability: Barilla's Innovative Approach to Sustainable Farming

In this paper, we link three theoretical perspectives – organizational knowledge, ecological knowledge and social–ecological systems – to derive new conceptions of multi‐disciplinary, multi‐tier, sustainability‐oriented knowledge. Our study examines how collaboration between pasta‐producer Barilla, the farmers/smallholders supplying the firm and scientists generated sustainability practices in the agri‐food industry by creating transformative ecological, technical and scientific knowledge. In 2010, Barilla initiated a sustainable farming project to significantly reduce the environmental impact of cultivating durum wheat, its most important raw material. Core components included replacing monoculture with crop rotation, collectively creating innovative approaches that support farmers’ decision making and generating widely accessible guidelines for sustainability‐oriented cropping knowledge and practices. These collaborative efforts initiated profound transformations within and beyond the organization's boundaries via increased production yields, reduced environmental impacts and improved sustainability of farming practices, which generated economic, social and ecological benefits for farmers, surrounding communities and the firm. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

Build Coalitions to Fit: Autonomy Expectations,Competence Mobilization,and Job Crafting

Job crafting offers several beneficial organizational outcomes, yet little is known about what makes employees engage in it. In particular, the role of leaders in influencing their subordinates to engage in job crafting has been insufficiently studied. Drawing on role theory, we suggest that the congruence of leader‐subordinate autonomy expectations nurtures subordinates’ experiences of having their competences adequately utilized in their jobs. This experience, which involves the competence mobilization of their work roles, subsequently fosters subordinates’ engagement in job‐crafting behavior. A two‐stage field study of 145 leader‐subordinate dyads using cross‐level polynomial regression and response surface analysis supported the (in)congruence hypotheses. The results also demonstrated that subordinates’ perceived competence mobilization mediates the relationship between autonomy expectation (in)congruence and job crafting. In addition, leader coalition as a moderator strengthens the effect of perceived competence mobilization as a psychological condition for job crafting. Implications for practice and future research are discussed. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.