Negative interest rate policy and the yield curve

We evaluate the implications of the ECB's negative interest rate policy (NIRP) on the yield curve. To capture various shapes of the short end of the yield curve induced by the NIRP, we introduce two policy indicators, which summarize the immediate and longer horizon future monetary policy stances. We find that the four NIRP events lowered the short-term interest rate by the same amount. The impact is dampened at longer maturities for the first two event dates, due to lack of forward guidance. By contrast, for the last two dates, forward guidance drives the largest effects in two years.     

The untold story of commodity futures in China

We investigate the behavior of commodity futures risk premia in China. In the presence of retail-dominance and barriers-to-entry, the term structure and momentum premia remain persistent, whereas hedging pressure, skewness, volatility, and liquidity premia are distorted by time-varying margins and strict position limits. Furthermore, open interest, currency, and inflation premia are sensitive to institutional settings. The observed premia cannot be attributed to common risks, sentiment, transactions costs, or data-snooping, but are related to liquidity, anchoring, and regulation-induced limits-to-arbitrage. We highlight the distinctive features of Chinese futures markets and assess the challenges posed to theories of commodity risk premia.     

产业转型升级示范区高质量发展的大数据分析

2017、2019年,国家发展改革委、科技部、工业和信息化部、自然资源部、国家开发银行在全国分两批遴选创设了20个产业转型升级示范区。以第一批12个示范区为对象,通过社会媒体报道和地方政府工作报告大数据分析,研究其在探索传统产业改造、新兴产业发展、绿色发展、园区建设、产业集聚、以及优化营商环境、融入国家战略、加强区域协作等方面的建设成效和典型经验,可以发现,推动国家产业转型升级示范区高质量发展,应因地制宜谋划示范区发展定位,依据功能定位实施差异化产业战略,进一步完善示范区评估考核指标体系,充分发挥中央预算内投资激励导向作用。     

Macroprudential regulation for a dynamic Chinese banking system with a scale-free network

Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination - The frequent global financial crises in recent years show that it is necessary to implement macroprudential regulation for the banking system. At...     

Social media bots and stock markets

This study examines the link between information spread by social media bots and stock trading. Based on a large sample of tweets mentioning 55 companies in the FTSE 100 composites, we find significant relations between bot tweets and stock returns, volatility, and trading volume at both daily and intraday levels. These results are also confirmed by an event study of stock response following abnormal increases in the volume of tweets. The findings are robust to various specifications, including controlling for traditional news channel, alternative measures of volatility, information flows in pretrading hours, and different measures of sentiment.     

铁路限制分界口定量交接的思考

在阐述限制分界口定量交接背景的基础上,针对限制分界口定量交接的特点,提出实行菜单交接有助于实现均衡运输、提高运输效率、减少分界口扯皮、降低内耗。通过探讨目前菜单交接存在的问题,对其原因进行分析,提出可以从强化服务意识、深入实地调研、严格执行命令及关注市场变化等方面改进菜单交接质量。     

法式长棍面包酵头发酵技术探析

本文就普通法式长棍面包、酵头及酵头法式长棍面包制作技术进行研究,并从外观、切面组织状态及口感等方面对面包成品比较分析,得出酵头面包无论是从外观状态、内部组织及口感等都与普通法式面包有很大的区别,有独特的优势。酵头法制作的法式长棍面包将成为该种面包的发展方向。     

An intelligent service matching method for mechanical equipment condition monitoring using the fibre Bragg grating sensor network

Due to the advantages of being able to function under harsh environmental conditions and serving as a distributed condition information source in a networked monitoring system, the fibre Bragg grating (FBG) sensor network has attracted considerable attention for equipment online condition monitoring. To provide an overall conditional view of the mechanical equipment operation, a networked service-oriented condition monitoring framework based on FBG sensing is proposed, together with an intelligent matching method for supporting monitoring service management. In the novel framework, three classes of progressive service matching approaches, including service-chain knowledge database service matching, multi-objective constrained service matching and workflow-driven human-interactive service matching, are developed and integrated with an enhanced particle swarm optimisation (PSO) algorithm as well as a workflow-driven mechanism. Moreover, the manufacturing domain ontology, FBG sensor network structure and monitoring object are considered to facilitate the automatic matching of condition monitoring services to overcome the limitations of traditional service processing methods. The experimental results demonstrate that FBG monitoring services can be selected intelligently, and the developed condition monitoring system can be re-built rapidly as new equipment joins the framework. The effectiveness of the service matching method is also verified by implementing a prototype system together with its performance analysis.     

Notes from a life influenced by Wendell Bell

Wendell Bell's idealistic vision of the role of the sociologist in creating a brighter future for society and his theoretical framework of the role of intellectual elites in the decisions of nationhood are examined through the personal lens of a former Caribbean student of the West Indies Study Program at UCLA.