The World Market for Labor and the World Market for Industrial Sites

At the center of the on-going debate about the U.S. Social Security system is the question of whether the way the system is financed can cope with the future challenges posed by the retiring Baby Boom generation. The "reformers" suggest changing the design of the system by moving to fully funded defined contribution retirement plans. Others argue that the so-called demographic problems are being used as an excuse to privatize the system. But both sides spend almost all of their energy and time figuring out the timing of insolvency of the system and the validity of the assumptions made in each forecast. In contrast, the present study closely examines the changing macroeconomic dynamics of the system since the 1960s. The analysis shows that undermining of the system is caused not by demographic changes or financing mechanisms but by low wages and medical inflation.     

Time-specific disturbances and cross-sectional dependency in a small-sample heterogeneous panel data unit root test

In their seminal work, Im et al. (1997 Im, KS, Pesaran, MH and Shin, Y. 1997. Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. 1997. Working paper, Department of Applied Economics, University of Cambridge. Mimeographed [Google Scholar], 2003 Im, KS, Pesaran, MH and Shin, Y. 2003. Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115: 53–74. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) suggested that time series for several cross-sectional units could be used to increase the power of the Dickey--Fuller unit root test. They argued that when cross-sectional correlation is a problem that can be modelled by a time-specific factor, demeaning across the cross-sectional units can solve the problem. In this study, this proposition is proven valid, but it is also shown that previously supplied standardizing moments are inappropriate when the number of cross-sections are small, causing size to differ from the significance level. To correct this size distortion, the current paper supplies response surface parameters that can be used to obtain moments that are valid when a time-specific factor suffices for modelling cross-sectional correlation in the heterogeneous panel data unit root framework. The correct size of the panel data unit root test comes at the cost of a somewhat lower power against a stationary alternative.     

New panel results on cointegration of international health expenditure and GDP

This article tests for existence of cointegration between health expenditure and GDP using data from 25 OECD countries for the period 19607ndash;1997. The empirical modelling is based on a heterogeneous bivariate vector error correction panel model that allows for trending data as well as intercepts and trends in the cointegrating relations. Univariate country-by-country and panel unit root tests generally fail to reject the null of a unit root in the health expenditure and GDP variables. Country-by-country results based on the Johansen multivariate likelihood-based inference indicate somewhat mixed results on country-specific cointegration with a rank of one found for 12 countries and a rank of zero for the remaining 13 countries. Application of a new panel test for cointegration rank with higher power than the individual tests indicates that health expenditure and GDP are cointegrated around linear trends.     

Wage differences between Austrian men and women: <Emphasis Type="Italic">semper idem?</Emphasis>

In most OECD countries, the wage gap between men and women has narrowed during the past two decades. Developments of the last 20 years, e.g., increased labour market attachment of women or the introduction of equal pay laws, may have reduced the gender wage gap. We investigate the extent, persistence, and socio-economic determinants of the gender wage gap in Austria, for the years 1983 and 1997. Using wage decomposition techniques, we find that the average gender wage gap was almost as high in 1997 as it was in 1983. Not accounting for differences, the gender wage gap dropped from 25.5 to 23.3% of men’s wages. Taking observable differences between men and women into account, we estimate that the mean gender wage gap that cannot be explained, i.e., discrimination against women, dropped from 17 to 14% of men’s wages. A decomposition of the gender wage gap over time indicates that both returns to human capital and less discrimination were responsible for the narrowing of the gender wage gap.

Effort maximization in asymmetric contest games with heterogeneous contestants

Contest rules are set up by administrators who frequently have discretionary power in specifying the details of these rules, i.e., they can bias the contest rules toward specific contestants in order to further their prime objective. We derive the optimal bias of the contest rule for a contest administrator, who is interested in maximizing the total efforts expended in the contest. The solution is obtained in closed form for a widely used class of n-person contest games. Setting the optimal bias has important implications: (i) there is never exclusion of strong players, instead there is (endogenously induced) inclusion of weak contestants; (ii) the contest administrator will optimally level the playing field by encouraging weak contestants, but he will not equalize the contestants’ chances unless they are identical; and (iii) at least three contestants will be active in equilibrium of the optimal contest, irrespective of heterogeneity.     

Investment coordination in network industries: the case of electricity grid and electricity generation

Liberalization of network industries frequently separates the network from the other parts of the industry. This is important in particular for the electricity industry where private firms invest into generation facilities, while network investments usually are controlled by regulators. We discuss two regulatory regimes. First, the regulator can only decide on the network extension. Second, she can additionally use a “capacity market” with payments contingent on private generation investment. For the first case, we find that even absent asymmetric information, a lack of regulatory commitment can cause inefficiently high or inefficiently low investments. For the second case, we develop a standard handicap auction which implements the first best under asymmetric information if there are no shadow costs of public funds. With shadow costs, no simple mechanism can implement the second best outcome.     

Restricted Hodrick–Prescott filtering in a state-space framework

The current paper extends previous results on Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filtering and shows that it is possible to implement the judgement-augmented, or restricted, HP filter within the state-space framework. The implementation entails augmenting the vector of measurements and altering one of the system matrices of the state-space model for the HP filter. Restrictions can thereby be incorporated in the HP filter, making, e.g., estimation more accessible. An application to US GDP gap estimation illustrates how the restricted filter could be usefully applied in an empirical macroeconomic setting.     

What has New Zealand gained from The FTA with China?: Two counterfactual analyses†

We investigate the effects of the 2008 New Zealand (NZ)–China free trade agreement (FTA) on exports from NZ to China, and real GDP per capita in NZ using the synthetic control method to estimate the counterfactuals. NZ exports to China were more than 200% higher in 2014 than what they would have had the FTA never been signed. NZ's food and live animals exports to China were more than 180% higher in 2014 than the counterfactual. Our counterfactuals indicate a small but negative effect of the FTA on NZ's real GDP per capita between 2009 and 2012.     

Rent Seeking with Efforts and Bids

We introduce bids in a rent-seeking contest. Players compete for a prize. Apart from exerting lobbying efforts, they also submit a bid which is payable only if they win the prize. We show that our model has a unique Nash equilibrium in pure strategies, in which each active player submits the same bid, while the sum of all efforts equals that bid. In equilibrium there is underdissipation of rent.     

Evaluating Projects and Assessing Sustainable Development in Imperfect Economies

We are interested in three related questions:(1) How should accounting prices be estimated?(2) How should we evaluate policy change in animperfect economy? (3) How can we check whetherintergenerational well-being will be sustainedalong a projected economic programme? We do notpresume that the economy is convex, nor do weassume that the government optimizes on behalfof its citizens. We show that the same set ofaccounting prices should be used both forpolicy evaluation and for assessing whether ornot intergenerational welfare along a giveneconomic path will be sustained. We also showthat a comprehensive measure of wealth,computed in terms of the accounting prices, canbe used as an index for problems (2) and (3)above. The remainder of the paper is concernedwith rules for estimating the accounting pricesof several specific environmental naturalresources, transacted in a few well knowneconomic institutions.