Conversation with secrets

We analyze the sustainability of a conversation when one agent might be endowed with a piece of private information that affects the payoff distribution to its benefit. Such a secret can compromise the sustainability of conversation. Even without an obligation, the secret holder will disclose its secret if it prevents preemptive termination of the conversation. The nonsecret holder lacks this possibility and stops the conversation. Competition and limited effectiveness of the conversation amplify this result of early disclosure and render the conversation process less sustainable. We discuss policy and managerial implications for industry standard development and joint ventures.     

A generalized approach to optimal hedging with option contracts

In this paper, we develop a theoretical model in which a firm hedges a spot position using options in the presence of both quantity (production) and basis risks. Our optimal hedge ratio is fairly general, in that the dependence structure is modeled through a copula function representing the quantiles of the hedged position, and hence any quantile risk measure can be employed. We study the sensitivity of the exercise price which minimizes the risk of the hedged portfolio to the relevant parameters, and we find that the subjective risk aversion of the firm does not play any role. The only trade-off is between the effectiveness and cost of the hedging strategy.     

Multi-agent technologies in economics

This paper summarizes some of the trends in the use of multi-agent technologies in economics. Multiple agent systems, fuzzy sets and neural networks are critical tools used to investigate the emerging economics research agenda related to data mining, dynamic markets stock selection and bank stress testing. This paper reviews the contributions of four such examples.     

International crises,instability periods and contagion: the case of the ERM

In this article we propose a two step procedure for modeling the propagation of financial shocks. The first step consists in the estimation, by means of SWARCH models, of the conditional probability of being in a period of high volatility, while in the second step such indicators are included in a structural simultaneous equations models for interdependences among different countries. The results show that episodes of financial crisis effectively happened during periods of high volatility and that such measures of instability are important in explaining the propagation of devaluation expectations between six European Countries during the ERM period.

A note on the sensitivity analysis of the internal rate of return

In this note we discuss the sensitivity analysis of the internal rates of return (IRR). We show that the use of partial derivatives can be misleading in the identification of key drivers of an investment project's performance. To remedy this shortcoming, we propose the use of an alternative sensitivity measure called the Differential Importance Measure. The analysis shows that, even if the theoretical conditions for using the Net Present Value or the IRR as valuation criteria apply, the sensitivity analysis results for the two indicators may differ.     

Climate change management: a resilience strategy for flood risk using Blockchain tools

Decisions in Economics and Finance - This work aims to offer a contribution in the analysis and management, from an economic and financial point of view, of the flood risk, and extended to the...