Small‐sample testing inference in symmetric and log‐symmetric linear regression models

This paper deals with the issue of testing hypotheses in symmetric and log‐symmetric linear regression models in small and moderate‐sized samples. We focus on four tests, namely, the Wald, likelihood ratio, score, and gradient tests. These tests rely on asymptotic results and are unreliable when the sample size is not large enough to guarantee a good agreement between the exact distribution of the test statistic and the corresponding chi‐squared asymptotic distribution. Bartlett and Bartlett‐type corrections typically attenuate the size distortion of the tests. These corrections are available in the literature for the likelihood ratio and score tests in symmetric linear regression models. Here, we derive a Bartlett‐type correction for the gradient test. We show that the corrections are also valid for the log‐symmetric linear regression models. We numerically compare the various tests and bootstrapped tests, through simulations. Our results suggest that the corrected and bootstrapped tests exhibit type I probability error closer to the chosen nominal level with virtually no power loss. The analytically corrected tests as well as the bootstrapped tests, including the Bartlett‐corrected gradient test derived in this paper, perform with the advantage of not requiring computationally intensive calculations. We present a real data application to illustrate the usefulness of the modified tests.     

CES and Translog parameter estimates in a SAM-based regional general equilibrium framework

The computation of General Equilibrium models crucially depends on Social Accounting Matrix (SAM)-based calibration and on how estimation/imputation are performed to reproduce the benchmark dataset as an equilibrium solution. In this paper, theoretical contributions are provided by suggesting a new procedure in which the production function parameters and the elasticity of substitution are estimated by resorting to the data contained in the SAM. To this aim, the Generalized Cross-Entropy estimator is used. Application of this self-contained procedure to the regional SAM for the Italian region Tuscany leads to empirical results consisting of the estimates of the elasticities of substitution of Constant Elasticity of Substitution and Translog production functions consistent with the theoretical background. This yields a more efficient and effective solution of Computable General Equilibrium models.     

Measuring the quality of port hinterland accessibility: The Ligurian case

Traditionally, distance was considered the parameter that could better reflect the economic influence of a seaport on land. Containerisation and intermodality progressively eroded such a paradigm and currently distance became only one of the factors across the overall “equation”. In this respect, a fundamental role is played by the effectiveness of inland connections. The better the connection of a port to the various inland markets, the bigger the potential to enlarge its overall captive area. Furthermore, the higher the “frictions” (bottlenecks, delays, etc.) for reaching the hinterland, the lower the inland traffic flows.The major purpose of the paper is to measure container traffic diversion from Ligurian ports (Genoa, La Spezia and Savona) to the main Italian and European competitors.The application of a gravity model will reveal the current role of distance in drawing hinterland market share among the selected ports. Moreover, for evaluating the unexploited potentialities of Ligurian ports, we compared real traffic flows with the outcomes of a spatial interaction model, reassigning inland container flows to the different sampled ports. The calculation of the traffic delta through a gap analysis, allowed measuring the “frictions” thwarting the connectivity between the Ligurian ports and the sampled hinterland regions. Finally, the paper discusses the nature and the reasons for the above traffic diversion.     

Marginal places and tourism: the role of Buddhist centers in Italy

Religious tourism in Italy has always been an attractor at an international level. For many centuries, it has been entirely represented by the Christian pilgrimage to St. Peter’s Basilica. In recent decades, however, the religious scenery has changed deeply, and now includes even non-Christian religions and spiritualities. In this paper we compare two (very different) Buddhist centers, both located in places of Italy where tourism is not (or is no more) a significant component of the local economy. Buddhist centers are increasingly becoming popular tourist attraction: our purpose is to investigate to what extent and under which conditions they can be actors of local tourism development. The most significant of these conditions seems to be the nature of the center itself, ranging from a hermitage relatively unconcerned about any quantitative development, to a structure where spiritual ends are reconciled both with expansion and with economic integration within the local community.     

Informal adult care and caregivers' employment in Europe

I discuss instrumental variable estimates of the effect of providing unpaid adult care on the caregivers' probability of being employed, using eight waves of the European Community Household Panel. I focus on men aged 40–64 and women aged 40–59 from thirteen Member States, aggregated in two groups of Northern-Central and Southern countries. Previous papers with European data found that IV estimates are more negative than estimates assuming exogeneity of caregiving. I show that this difference is not robust once account is taken of time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity. Indeed, instruments turn out not to be needed, and the estimated effect is negative, but small in both groups of countries.     

Firm size, business experience and export intensity in SMEs: A longitudinal approach to complex relationships

The objective of the paper is to test the effect of firm size and business experience on export performance. In fact, despite a growing number of empirical studies, the question of the relationship between these variables is not clearly established. This research aims at contributing to a better understanding of these complex relationships with a special focus on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The authors develop a general model and test it using a sample of Italian manufacturing firms that spans the 1997–2001 period. Combining a time-series with a cross-sectional analysis, they use an econometric model in order to test the relationships. Their findings provide a strong support for both relationships. The results show that it is not business experience per se which is important but that it is the relative change in experience that truly impacts upon export performance. The model also reveals that industry effects are relevant.     

Strategic accessibility competition

We analyze the effect of competition in market-accessibility enhancement among quality-differentiated firms. Firms are located in regions with different ex-ante transport costs to reach the final market. We characterize the equilibrium of the two-stage game in which firms first invest to improve market accessibility and then compete in prices. Efforts in accessibility improvement crucially depend on the interplay between the willingness to pay for the quality premium of the median consumer and the ex-ante difference in accessibility between regions. From the social standpoint, also the accessibility investment depends on such a comparison. Finally, we endogenize quality choice and check the robustness of the result to some natural modifications of our assumptions.     

The Phasing of Fiscal Adjustments: What Works in Emerging Market Economies?

This paper investigates the political and economic determinants of successful fiscal adjustment in 25 emerging market economies from 1980 to 2001. The results show that large and back‐loaded fiscal adjustments have the highest likelihood of success. Fiscal consolidations based on expenditure cuts increase the probability of approaching and achieving fiscal sustainability but are insufficient to maintain it unless accompanied by revenue reforms. Adjustment episodes launched in countries where governments enjoy a parliamentary majority and do not face imminent elections, are found to be more successful. Fiscal consolidations undertaken under IMF‐supported programs also have a higher probability of success.