Interest rate risk estimation: a new duration-based approach

Duration is widely used by fixed income managers to proxy the interest rate risk of their assets and liabilities. However, it is well known that the convexity of the price-yield relationship introduces approximation errors that grow with changes in yield. In this article we suggest a new approach, ‘discrete duration’, which significantly improves upon the accuracy of traditional duration methods and achieves a level of accuracy close to the more complex ‘duration-plus-convexity’ measure. In particular, discrete duration performs particularly well for long dated and low coupon rate bonds where the estimation error is impressively close to zero.     

The internal market and hospital efficiency: a stochastic distance function approach

The UK internal market was one of the first European attempts to introduce a competitive mechanism in the provision of hospital services. The assumption was that competition would have led hospitals to increase efficiency in the use of their resources. The aim of this paper is to analyse the effectiveness of this kind of reform by measuring the changes in technical efficiency of a panel of 52 acute Scottish hospitals observed from 1991/92 to 1996/97. The time period covers the whole duration of the internal market and the sample contains a different mix of both trusts and non-trusts, where the former embed the proper working of the reform. The selected model is a stochastic output distance function that includes an interaction dummy variable to allow for parameters to change over time. The results show a structural break after which hospitals change not only the way in which they provide their services, but also the kind of services they provide, favouring the quicker treatment of patients on a day basis. No significant improvement in technical efficiency is detected instead over time, nor any significant difference in efficiency between trusts and non-trusts.     

Having less: A personal project taxonomy of consumers' decluttering orientations,motives and emotions

This study examines consumers' orientations toward decluttering and what differentiates consumers' engagement with decluttering as a routine social practice. An internet survey was conducted with a convenience sample of 172 adult consumers who recently engaged in home decluttering projects. Cluster analysis used appraisals of personal project dimensions to create a taxonomy in which we identified three orientations toward decluttering: disengaged, enthusiastic, and challenged. Subsequent analyses compared appraisals of success and affective and motivational differences across the three orientations. Findings reveal that decluttering is enjoyable, easy, and most successful for consumers with an enthusiastic orientation who intrinsically value decluttering and link it to self-identify. Those who lack time or adequate control experience more stress and less success. Circumstances, and especially normative pressures, seemed to drive these orientations. All orientations experienced relatively high positive emotions after decluttering, which substantiates the positive influence of decluttering on emotional well-being.     

The Determinants of Regulatory Compliance: An Analysis of Insider Trading Disclosures in Italy

This paper investigates the determinants of regulatory compliance in corporate organizations. Exploiting a unique enforcement and reporting framework for insider trading in Italy, we present three main findings. First, board governance, such as chief executive–chairman duality and the proportion of non-executive directors, does not increase the propensity of firms to comply with regulation. Second, family firms and firms with a high degree of separation of ownership from control are most likely to comply with regulation. Third, corporate ethos is more important in predicting regulatory compliance than explicit corporate governance structures.     

Political and Fiscal Risk Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets

Using a panel of 46 emerging market economies from 1997 to 2008, this paper investigates the key determinants of country risk premiums as measured by sovereign bond spreads. Unlike previous studies, the results indicate that both political and fiscal factors matter for credit risk in emerging markets. Lower levels of political risk are associated with tighter spreads, particularly during financial turmoil. Efforts at fiscal consolidation narrow credit spreads, especially in countries with high initial public debt levels. The composition of fiscal policy also matters as higher public investment lowers spreads as long as the fiscal position remains sustainable and the fiscal deficit does not worsen.     

The performance of fiscal policy under an inflation targeting regime: What can be learned by the Brazilian fiscal rules?

This paper aims at, on the one hand, analyzing the Brazilian fiscal performance since the implementation of inflation targeting regime (ITR), June 1994, and the usefulness of fiscal rules to reach fiscal discipline in Brazil. On the other hand, it tries to evaluate what would have happened to the Brazilian government deficit if the new fiscal regime, that was implemented in 2016, would have been applied after the implementation of the ITR. Into this direction, we present an empirical analysis to describe three different fiscal rule scenarios, which includes a restriction related to inflation, depending on the preferences of the fiscal authorities: the austere, the symmetric or indifferent or the growth‐promoting environment. The main result of our empirical analysis is that, even in a context of ITR, the use of proper fiscal rule (countercyclical fiscal policy) helps to rationalize fiscal consolidation efforts by promoting a favorable environment for economic growth.     

State intervention and economic growth in Southern Italy: the rise and fall of the ‘Cassa per il Mezzogiorno’ (1950–1986)

In the second half of the twentieth century, the Italian government carried out a massive regional policy in southern Italy, through the State-owned agency ‘Cassa per il Mezzogiorno’ (1950–1986). The article reconstructs the activities of this agency, making use of its yearly reports and of national and local archives. The Cassa was effective in the first two decades, thanks to substantial technical autonomy and, in the 1960s, to a strong focus on industrial development; however, from the 1970s it progressively became an instrument of waste and misallocation. At the local level, we find significant differences between the southern regions, and correspondence between the quality of state intervention and the regional patterns of GDP and productivity.     

Russian Roulette at the Trade Table: A Specific Factors CGE Analysis of an Agri‐food Import Ban

In the summer of 2014 Russia imposed a ban on most agri‐food products from countries enforcing Ukraine‐related sanctions against Russia. We use a specific factors computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the short‐run impact of this retaliatory policy. The baseline is carefully designed to isolate the impacts of the ban on the European Union (EU), Russia itself and a selection of key trade partners. The modelling of the ban follows a novel approach, where it is treated as a loss of established trade preferences via reductions in consumer utility in the Armington import function. Not surprisingly, the results indicate that Russia bears the highest income loss (about €3.4 billion) while the EU recovers part of its lost trade through expansion of exports to other markets. An ex‐post comparison between simulation results and observed trade data reveals the model predictions to be broadly accurate, thereby validating the robustness of the modelling approach.     

Model-Based and Nonparametric Approaches to Clustering for Data Compression in Actuarial Applications

Clustering is used by actuaries in a data compression process to make massive or nested stochastic simulations practical to run. A large data set of assets or liabilities is partitioned into a user-defined number of clusters, each of which is compressed to a single representative policy. The representative policies can then simulate the behavior of the entire portfolio over a large range of stochastic scenarios. Such processes are becoming increasingly important in understanding product behavior and assessing reserving requirements in a big-data environment. This article proposes a variety of clustering techniques that can be used for this purpose. Initialization methods for performing clustering compression are also compared, including principal components, factor analysis, and segmentation. A variety of methods for choosing a cluster's representative policy is considered. A real data set comprising variable annuity policies, provided by Milliman, is used to test the proposed methods. It is found that the compressed data sets produced by the new methods, namely, model-based clustering, Ward's minimum variance hierarchical clustering, and k-medoids clustering, can replicate the behavior of the uncompressed (seriatim) data more accurately than those obtained by the existing Milliman method. This is verified within sample by examining location variable totals of the representative policies versus the uncompressed data at the five levels of compression of interest. More crucially it is also verified out of sample by comparing the distributions of the present values of several variables after 20 years across 1000 simulated scenarios based on the compressed and seriatim data, using Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit tests and weighted sums of squared differences.     

Technology Adoption and the Emergence of Regional Asymmetries

The model explains the emergence of asymmetric productive structures among regions based on adoption of a quality improving technology. Firms' products are differentiated both in location and quality, location is given. We characterize symmetric and asymmetric equilibria of the two stage game in price and adoption. Asymmetric equilibria display partial adoption frequencies and regular geographical patterns of adoptions. The asymmetry of the economy has, often, a reverse U-shaped relation with the innovation size. Market integration is an obstacle for the full adoption of the new technology and favours the emergence of regional asymmetries.