Technology usage lags

We present evidence on the differences in the intensity with which ten major technologies are used in 185 countries across the world. We do so by calculating how many years ago these technologies were used in the U.S. with the same intensity as they are used in the countries in our sample. We denote these time lags as technology usage lags and compare them with lags in real GDP per capita. We find that (i) technology usage lags are large, often comparable to lags in real GDP per capita, (ii) usage lags are highly correlated with lags in per-capita income, and (iii) usage lags are highly correlated across technologies. The productivity differentials between the state-of-the-art technologies that we consider and the ones they replace, combined with the usage lags that we document, lead us to infer that differences in the intensity of usage of technologies might account for a large part of cross-country TFP differentials. The views expressed in this paper solely reflect those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Bureau of Economic Research, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, nor those of the Federal Reserve System as a whole. This research was completed when Emilie Rovito was an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. We appreciate the financial assistance of the NSF (Grants # SES-0517910 and SBE-738101) and the C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics. We would like to thank Mark Bils, Hitesh Makhija, Andres Rodríguez-Clare, Romain Wacziarg, and Matt Wiswall for comments and suggestions.     

A Comparative Study of Radio Audience Measurement Methodology

Little published research exists to guide self-regulators in their evaluation of advertising directed to children. Academic researchers have principally studied the effects of advertising upon children, rather than children's perceptions of specific commercials and ads. Research on such questions as fantasy, using famous presenters, scale disclosures and disclaimers would undoubtedly show age-related differences of perception. This might call into question the advertisers' responsibilities to the pre-school, pre-literate child. The situation is more complex when the advertiser seeks to address older children at times when younger children are also watching. Research will never satisfy the critics, but industry and self-regulators should pursue the question of how children perceive advertising.     

Estimating profit efficiency among South African retail firms using stochastic frontier approach

This paper analyses profit efficiency of selected retail firms in South Africa over the 2005–2006 period. A stochastic frontier analysis method is used. The 24 retail firms covered are ranked in terms of their efficiency performance over this period. Their efficiencies have also been tracked over time. Approximately 50% of the firms are estimated to have profit efficiency estimates higher than the average estimated for the sampled firms. The top 10 firms are performing significantly better than the average profit efficiency of 0.39. The profit efficiency of the top three firms is more than double the observed average profit efficiency performance of the sampled retail firms. However, the bottom 50% of the retail firms has performed poorly.     

Dual aspects of mantle convection through time: Changes in global upper mantle temperature,Earth’s rotation,and global plate motion acceleration induced by mantle avalanches

We use modern and novel techniques to study the problems associated with detection and analysis of multitudinous seismic events, which form the background for isolated great earthquakes. This new approach involves multivariate analysis of low and large magnitude events recorded in space over a couple of centuries in time. We propose here the deployment of the clustering scheme both for extracting small local structures and large-scale trends in synthetic data obtained from four numerically simulated models with: uniform properties (U), a Parkfield-type asperity (A), fractal brittle properties (F), and multi-size-heterogeneity fault zone (M). The mutual nearest neighbor (mnn) clustering scheme allows for extraction of multi-resolutional seismic anomalies in both the spatio-temporal and multi-dimensional feature space. We demonstrate that the large earthquakes are correlated with a certain pathway of smaller events. Visualization of the anomalies by using a recently introduced visualization package Amira reveals clearly the spatio-temporal relationships between clusters of small, medium and large earthquakes, indicating significant stress relaxation across the entire fault region. We demonstrate that this mnn scheme can extract distinct clusters of the smallest events, which precede and follow a singularly large magnitude earthquake. These clusters form larger spatio-temporal structures comprising a series of large earthquakes. The link between the large and medium magnitude events is not so clearly understood. Short-ranged correlations are dominated by strong spatio-temporal anomalies, thus reflecting the global seismic properties of the entire fault zone.     

Corporate divestitures and family control

This paper investigates the relationship between divestitures and firm value in family firms. Using hand‐collected data on a sample of over 30,000 firm‐year observations, we find that family firms are less likely than non‐family firms to undertake divestitures, especially when these companies are managed by family rather than non‐family‐CEOs. However, we then establish that the divestitures undertaken by family firms, predominantly those run by family‐CEOs, are associated with higher post‐divestiture performance than their non‐family counterparts. These findings indicate that family firms may fail to fully exploit available economic opportunities, potentially because they pursue multiple objectives beyond the maximization of shareholder value. These results also elucidate how the characteristics of corporate owners and managers can influence the value that firms derive from their corporate strategies. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cost-effectiveness analysis of ocrelizumab versus subcutaneous interferon beta-1a for the treatment of relapsing multiple sclerosis

Aim: To conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis to compare ocrelizumab vs subcutaneous (SC) interferon beta-1a for the treatment of relapsing multiple sclerosis (RMS).

Methods: A Markov cohort model with a 20-year horizon was developed to compare ocrelizumab with SC interferon beta-1a from a US payer perspective. A cohort of patients with relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores of 0–6, who initiated treatment with ocrelizumab or SC interferon beta-1a, were entered into the model. The model considered 21 health states: EDSS 0–9 in RRMS, EDSS 0–9 in secondary-progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS), and death. Patients with RRMS could transition across EDSS scores, progress to SPMS, experience relapses, or die. Transition probabilities within RRMS while patients received ocrelizumab or SC interferon beta-1a were based on data from the two SC interferon beta-1a-controlled Phase III OPERA I and OPERA II trials of ocrelizumab in RMS. Transitions within RRMS when off-treatment, RRMS-to-SPMS transitions, transitions within SPMS, and transitions to death were based on the literature. Utilities of health states, disutilities of relapses, costs of therapies, and medical costs associated with health states, relapse, and adverse events were from the literature and publicly available data sources. The model estimated per-patient total costs, incremental cost per life year (LY) gained, and incremental cost per quality-adjusted LY (QALY) gained. Deterministic sensitivity analyses (DSA) and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) were conducted to evaluate the robustness of the model results.

Results: Ocrelizumab was associated with a cost savings of $63,822 and longer LYs (Δ?=?0.046) and QALYs (Δ?=?0.556) over a 20-year time horizon. The results of the model were robust in the DSA and PSA.

Limitations: The model did not consider subsequent treatments and their impact on disease progression.

Conclusions: The results suggest that ocrelizumab is more cost-effective than SC interferon beta-1a for the treatment of RMS.     

Corporate spinoffs and analysts' coverage decisions: The implications for diversified firms

Research summary: This paper investigates how spinoffs improve the quality of analysts' research about diversified firms, theorizing that these deals may induce analysts to revisit their earlier coverage decisions. The gains resulting from these shifts are expected to be more pronounced when a firm undertakes a legacy (rather than a non‐legacy) spinoff, which removes the business that may be constraining analysts' coverage decisions in the first place. Consistent with this argument, firms that undertake legacy spinoffs experience greater improvements in the composition and quality of their analyst coverage than their non‐legacy counterparts, and in their overall forecast accuracy and stock market performance. Taken together, these findings shed light on the relationships among the scope decisions, analyst coverage, and valuations of diversified firms. Managerial summary: Existing research has established that when companies undertake spinoffs, analysts produce more accurate forecasts about the divesting firms than they did prior to those deals, and the stock market performance of those firms also improves relative to pre‐spinoff levels. This paper explores the effects of legacy spinoffs (the spinoff of a firm's original or “legacy” business) for forecast accuracy and stock market performance. Firms that undertake legacy spinoffs are found to enjoy greater improvements in forecast accuracy and stock market performance than their non‐legacy counterparts. These findings are driven by the fact that legacy spinoffs induce analysts to revisit their existing coverage decisions to a greater extent than non‐legacy spinoffs, contributing significantly to the economic benefits of these deals for shareholders. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.