Forecasting dynamically asymmetric fluctuations of the U.S. business cycle

The generalized smooth transition autoregression (GSTAR) parametrizes the joint asymmetry in the duration and length of cycles in macroeconomic time series by using particular generalizations of the logistic function. The symmetric smooth transition and linear autoregressions are nested in the GSTAR. A test for the null hypothesis of dynamic symmetry is presented. Two case studies indicate that dynamic asymmetry is a key feature of the U.S. economy. The GSTAR model beats its competitors for point forecasting, but this superiority becomes less evident for density forecasting and in uncertain forecasting environments.     

Self-employment and job generation in metropolitan areas, 1969–2009

Many regional development policy initiatives assume that entrepreneurial activities promote economic growth. Empirical research has presented rationale for this argument showing that small firms create proportionally more new jobs than large firms. However, little research has been performed on the issue of net job generation at the urban level, particularly when self-employment is considered as an indicator of entrepreneurial activities. This paper investigates to what extent US metropolitan areas in the 1969–2009 period characterized by relatively high rates of self-employment also have shown relatively high rates of subsequent total employment growth. The analysis corrects for the influence of sectoral composition, wage level, educational attainment, presence of research universities and size of the metropolitan area to measure the extent to which the number and quality of self-employed in a region contribute to total employment growth. It finds the relationship between self-employment rates and subsequent total employment growth to be positive on average during the 40-year period but to weaken over time.     

A survival analysis of de novo co-operative credit banks

This paper studies the features of de novo Co-operative Credit Banks (CCBs) established in Italy during the 1990s. It shows that de novo CCBs in the start-up period are endowed with a higher default risk than long-run incumbent CCBs. Split-population duration models distiguish the determinants of duration and probability of default. The focus is on those determinants related to market structure. We find that duration is positively related to the market share of large banks. Conversely, duration is higher when there are no incumbent CCBs in the same market. Survival probability is directly related to the local level of GDP.All correspondence to Paolo Emilio Mistrulli. The authors thank Francesco Cesarini, Robert DeYoung, Roberto Di Salvo, Dario Focarelli, Eugenio Gaiotti, Leonardo Gambacorta, Giorgio Gobbi, Francesca Lotti, Fabio Panetta, Alberto F. Pozzolo and two anonymous referees for very valuable comments. Any remaining errors are those of the authors alone. The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of the institutions with which they are affiliated.First version received: October 2001/Final version received: February 2004     

Equilibrium portfolios in the neoclassical growth model

This paper studies equilibrium portfolios in the standard neoclassical growth model under uncertainty with heterogeneous agents and dynamically complete markets. Preferences are purposely restricted to be quasi-homothetic. The main source of heterogeneity across agents is due to different endowments of shares of the representative firm at date 0. Fixing portfolios is the optimal equilibrium strategy in stationary endowment economies with dynamically complete markets. However, when the environment displays changing degrees of heterogeneity across agents, the trading strategy of fixed portfolios cannot be optimal in equilibrium. Very importantly, our framework can generate changing heterogeneity if and only if either minimum consumption requirements are not zero or labor income is not zero and the value of human and non-human wealth are linearly independent.     

The dynamics of efficient asset trading with heterogeneous beliefs

This paper analyzes the dynamic properties of portfolios that sustain dynamically complete markets equilibrium when agents have heterogeneous priors. We argue that the conventional wisdom that belief heterogeneity generates continuous trade and significant fluctuations in individual portfolios may be correct but it needs some qualifications. We consider an infinite horizon stochastic endowment economy populated by many Bayesian agents with heterogeneous priors over the stochastic process of the states of nature. Our approach hinges on studying the portfolios that decentralize Pareto optimal allocations. Since these allocations are typically history dependent, we propose a methodology to provide a complete recursive characterization when agents believe that the process of states of nature is i.i.d. but disagree about the probability of the states. We show that even though heterogeneous priors within that class can indeed generate genuine changes in the portfolios of any dynamically complete markets equilibrium, these changes vanish with probability one if the true process consists of i.i.d. draws from a common distribution and the support of some agent's prior belief contains the true distribution. Finally, we provide examples in which asset trading does not vanish because either (i) no agent learns the true conditional probability of the states or (ii) some agent does not know the true process generating the data is i.i.d.     

Environmental practices and the value added of horticultural firms

This paper explores the relationship between environmental management and productivity in the fruit and vegetable sector. Our empirical analysis focuses on the effect of environmental practices on the value added in horticultural firms of Andalusia. These practices are included in the incentive programmes established by the Common Agricultural Policy on a voluntary basis. Taking the investment in environmental activities as knowledge capital, we propose a specific analysis that evaluates the effect of the factors of the production function on the value added. Our results show a positive overall impact of environmental investment on the product's market value. We conclude that there is a direct link between environmental management and productivity in the sector under study. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

Biotechnology Development in Spain: A Change of Paradigm?

This article presents a quantitative and qualitative analysis of the Spanish biotechnology sector, including its scientific, business, policy and social aspects. The study differentiates two sub-sectors, considered to be the most representative: Biopharma and Agro-food. The results show that biotechnology development in Spain has entered a new phase. Traditionally, research and development in Spain followed an unstructured path built around regional spaces and driven by factors and influences external to Spain. However, the emergence of a fast-growing sector of spin-off companies from the public research system, specifically in the Biopharma sector, points to a change of model of development of the industry, on the national as well as the regional level. The data also show the key role which public policy plays in creating a suitable framework for innovation and point to the need of analyzing the influence of social and cultural factors on the development of the biotechnology sector.     

Institutional framework,corporate ownership structure,and R&D investment: an international analysis

We combine agency theory with the law and finance approach to analyze how the legal protection of investors and the corporate ownership structure affect corporate investment in research and development (R&D). We use information from 956 firms from the five most R&D-intensive industries in 19 developed countries. Our results show that better protection of investors’ rights by the institutional environment has a positive influence on corporate R&D. We also find that corporate ownership concentration works as a substitute for legal protection. This finding means that R&D investment of the firms in the countries with poor legal protection increases as ownership becomes more concentrated. Our results also show that the identity of shareholders has a relevant effect: Whereas banks and nonfinancial institutions as shareholders result in lower R&D, institutional investors as shareholders increase corporate investment in R&D.     

Indeterminacy in price–value correlation measures

During the last 20 years, an important body of literature on the so-called ‘Ricardo’s 93% theory of value’ – the classical hypothesis which asserts that direct prices are very good predictors of both production prices and market prices – has shown that the hypothesized strong correlation in fact holds in the context of cross-sectional data. However, these empirical results are extremely dubious due to severe problems that cause indeterminacy and arbitrariness in the measures of correlation usually employed.      

Treasury auctions in Spain: a linear approach

Abstract. The majority of Treasuries use discriminatory auctions to sell government debt. A few Treasuries use uniform auctions. The Spanish Treasury is the only one that uses a hybrid format of discriminatory and uniform auctions. All Treasury auctions are multiple-unit multiple-bid auctions, usually assumed to be common and unknown value auctions. Taking in account these features, we analyze the Spanish auction format, taking a linear approximation to bidders' multiple bids, and characterize a parameter set in which the Spanish format gives higher expected seller's revenue than discriminatory and uniform auctions. Policy implications are obtained by calibrating theoretical results with data. We thank S. Nu?ez, and seminar participants at GREQAM, CEFI, the 1999 CEF meeting in Boston and the 57th European Meeting of the Econcometric Society for suggestions. We are especially grateful to two anonymous referees for detailed comments that greatly improved the paper. Any error is our responsability. The authors express their thanks for financial support to Ministerio de Ciencia y Teconologia from Proyecto SEC2000-0723, n_o 9114.