Regime-switching purchasing power parity in Latin America: Monte Carlo unit root tests with dynamic conditional score

We suggest a Monte Carlo simulation-based unit root test of the purchasing power parity theory for Latin American countries. Under the null hypothesis, we use a Markov regime-switching (MS) model with unit root in the conditional location and MS volatility dynamics. Under the alternative hypothesis, the proposed test incorporates Markov regime-switching autoregressive moving average (MS-ARMA) plus MS volatility dynamics. Under both the null and alternative hypotheses, one of the volatility models estimated is Beta-t-EGARCH, which is a recent dynamic conditional score volatility model. We use data on real effective exchange rate time series for 14 Latin American countries. For each country, we estimate by Monte Carlo simulation the critical values of the unit root test. We provide an economic discussion of the unit root test results and also study the robustness of MS-ARMA plus MS volatility with respect to smooth transition autoregressive models with Fourier function.     

Incidence,effects, dynamics and routes out of overqualification in Europe: a comprehensive analysis distinguishing by employment status

This study aims to improve our understanding of overqualification by incorporating distinctions in employment status (i.e. self-employed workers, private employees and public employees) in the analysis of the incidence, effects, dynamics and routes out of overqualification. To this end, we apply discrete choice – ordered and nonordered – and count models to the data obtained from the European Community Household Panel for the EU-15. Our results indicate that the incidence of overqualification varies by employment status, where self-employed workers report the lowest occurrence. Furthermore, this analysis suggests that overqualification is a permanent phenomenon and demonstrates that successful pathways out of overqualification differ by employment status. The implications of these results for education and labour market policies are also discussed.     

世界石油物探行业发展趋势及中国企业面临的挑战

国际金融危机造成石油公司大幅削减物探投资,对石油物探行业形成巨大冲击。金融危机后,物探作业队伍数量仍处于较高水平,物探市场供给过剩,竞争激烈,物探公司经营困难;大量深海低端船只退出市场,海上物探船走向高端时代;多用户业务投资和收入大幅下降。物探行业的变化给中国石油物探企业带来了巨大挑战。建议中国石油物探公司：1）加强成本管理。理顺流程,加大合力,发挥规模效应,避免重复建设和浪费;加大资源、管理和技术的共享,形成竞争优势;提高公司整体管理水平和项目运作效率。2）重视对国家石油公司和国际大石油公司这两个客户群体的细致分析和研究。3）培育多用户项目运作能力。通过与经验丰富的公司的合作,逐步实现独立自主运作多用户项目。4）大力推进技术创新。将科技投入作为加快企业发展的战略性投入,加强企业技术创新人才的培养和高端技术人才的引进,理顺物探企业技术创新管理体系,提高技术创新的投入产出率。     

北京奥运后陕北少儿体校发展现状研究

北京奥运我国金牌总数首登第一,取得了举世瞩目的成绩,国人为之振奋,这些成绩的取得与各级体校的贡献是分不开的,北京奥运后各级体校应如何发展决定着后备人才的培养情况,笔者对陕北各级体校办学现状进行调研,客观分析了存在的问题,提出一些较符合陕北实际的有利于各级体校发展的建议,旨在为陕北各级体校的可持续发展提供参考。     

An application of co-word analysis and bibliometric maps for detecting the most highlighting themes in the consumer behaviour research from a longitudinal perspective

This article presents an application of a bibliometric and visual study of the research carried out on a social science subfield, concretely the consumer behaviour research (CBR), from a longitudinal perspective (period 1966–2008). The study combines performance analysis and science mapping for detecting and visualizing conceptual subdomains. Quantitative and qualitative measures are used in order to identify the most prominent themes. Quantitative data are used to put together very related concepts (themes or clusters of topics), while qualitative indicators (as those based on citations) are used to measure the quality and/or impact of the detected themes. The study also uses bibliometric maps to show in a visual way the associations between the main concepts treated by the CBR community. The maps provide insight into the structure of the CBR, visualize the division of the field into several subfields, and indicate the relationships between these subfields. Co-word analysis is the bibliometric technique used to identify the main themes. All this allows us to quantify and visualize the thematic evolution of the CBR. It also helps to both experts and novices to understand the current state of the art of the CBR and to predict where future research could lead.     

第三方逆向物流系统运行机制探讨

本文分析了第三方逆向物流系统运行机制的内涵和特点,阐述了对第三方逆向物流系统运行机制产生影响的因素,提出了通过政府调控机制、市场价格机制、企业自律机制和合作机制来设计良性的第三方逆向物流系统运行机制的建议.     

Rate of Return Regulation: The Case of Spanish Ports

An original model is put forward in this article to explain and consider the behavior of some of the most important public services in Spain. The cost function approach and the input distance function approach are used to estimate the existence of overcapitalization as a result of rate of return regulation. The results show that overcapitalization generated by this regulation is too significant not to be taken into account.     

Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Copper Mining on Peru’s Recent Economic Growth

Peru is the second-largest producer and exporter of copper in the world. This paper proposes a novel approach to assess short-run and long-run effects of copper on Peru’s recent economic growth. Annual data over the 2014–2018 period were used to calculate a Mining Contribution Index (MCI). An institutional quality indicator of the World Competitiveness Index of the World Economic Forum measured the dependence of Peruvian economic growth on mining and the quality of its institutions, respectively. Then, monthly data during the period 2005–2018 were used to run vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction (VEC) models to measure copper’s effects on the country’s economy over time. VAR-VEC models included copper production, exports, international price, investment, taxes paid by producing companies, and Peru’s gross domestic product (GDP). Stationarity and causality of variables were verified with the Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Granger tests, respectively. Due to the presence of non-stationary variables, a VEC model was implemented to forecast short- and long-run effects. The main results show that real GDP responds to copper output and other related explanatory variables differently, depending upon the instrument applied. Peruvian GDP has increased dependence on copper mining. The quality of its institutions could explain the presence of Dutch Disease or resource curse theory. Short- and long-run effects of copper output on GDP were generally statistically non-significant. GDP was statistically significant in relation to other mining variables, such as copper exports and the international price of copper.

     

Trade‐led growth hypothesis in Cuban commercial regimes since 19601,2

This study examines the impact of trade on Cuban growth during different commercial policy regimes spanning the period from 1960 up to 2004, encompassing two essential economic structural transformations: the Cuban revolution and the fall of the Berlin Wall. For this purpose, the Granger causality is used by means of the modified Wald test for augmented‐level vector autoregressive model with integrated and cointegrated processes introduced by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) and Dolado and Lutekepohl (1996) . We show an import‐led growth hypothesis during the Soviet‐oriented pattern that is rejected after 1990, when exports are not only responsive to growth expansion but also to imports’ behaviour.     

Is Decoupling Possible? Association between Affluence and Household Carbon Emissions in the Philippines

This paper investigates whether or not affluence is associated with carbon emissions at the household level in the Philippines. While there is abundant literature on this issue, limited studies are available for developing countries. We estimate household carbon emissions by combining input–output analysis with household expenditure. The results suggest that household carbon emissions are increasing non‐monotonically with a non‐existent turning point as households accumulate more assets. This is further supported by quintile estimates showing huge disparity in emissions between poor and rich households. Although household carbon emissions in the Philippines are not alarming, evidence suggests that it is likely households will lead a carbon‐intensive lifestyle as they become more affluent.