Forecasting UK consumer price inflation using inflation forecasts

The inflation rate is a key economic indicator for which forecasters are constantly seeking to improve the accuracy of predictions, so as to enable better macroeconomic decision making. Presented in this paper is a novel approach which seeks to exploit auxiliary information contained within inflation forecasts for developing a new and improved forecast for inflation by modeling with Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis (MSSA). Unlike other forecast combination techniques, the key feature of the proposed approach is its use of forecasts, i.e. data into the future, within the modeling process and extracting auxiliary information for generating a new and improved forecast. We consider real data on consumer price inflation in UK, obtained via the Office for National Statistics. A variety of parametric and nonparametric models are then used to generate univariate forecasts of inflation. Thereafter, the best univariate forecast is considered as auxiliary information within the MSSA model alongside historical data for UK consumer price inflation, and a new multivariate forecast is generated. We find compelling evidence which shows the benefits of the proposed approach at generating more accurate medium to long term inflation forecasts for UK in relation to the competing models. Finally, through the discussion, we also consider Google Trends forecasts for inflation within the proposed framework.     

Extending the determinants of currency substitution in Nigeria: Any role for financial innovation?

Existing literature suggests that macroeconomic and institutional factors are the drivers of currency substitution. The persistent and significant incidence of currency substitution during the period of mixed performance of macroeconomic variables suggests the existence of a knowledge gap on the drivers of currency substitution during the era of rapid technological innovation. To contribute to this literature, we augmented the traditional money demand model of the determinants of currency substitution to introduce financial innovation. We use Nigerian data from 2005Q1 to 2019Q4 and Pesaran et al. (2001, https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616 ) autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test approach to cointegration to estimate the models. The results confirm the presence of short-run and long-run relationships between financial technology and currency substitution in Nigeria. In effect, the deployment of financial technology in developing payment system infrastructure creates additional incentives for economic agents to hold foreign currency deposit. Economic managers must, therefore, mainstream credible monetary and fiscal policies to moderate the effect of financial innovation on currency substitution.     

Performance and Merton-type default risk of listed banks in the EU: A panel VAR approach

This paper provides empirical evidence that sheds new light into the dynamic interactions between risk and efficiency, a highly debated issue. First, we estimate three alternative measures of bank performance, by employing a directional distance function framework, along with a cost frontier and a profit function. As a second step, we calculate a Merton-type bank default risk. Then, we employ a panel VAR analysis, which allows the examination of the underlying relationships between efficiency and risk without applying any a priori restrictions. Most evidence shows that the effect of a one standard deviation shock of the distance to default on inefficiency is negative and substantial. There is some evidence of a reverse causation. As part of a sensitivity analysis, we extent our study to investigate the relationship between efficiency and default risk for banks with different types of ownership structures and across financial systems with different levels of development.     

The fuzzy multicriteria analysis method: an application on NPV ranking

The Net Present Value (NPV) approach is often used as a tool to rank projects and it uses a total order approach. This paper applies a new method developed by De Baets and Van de Walle (1994, 1995) and which we will call ‘fuzzy multicriteria analysis’ (FMCA). The main objective of this new method is to weaken the total order into a fuzzy quasi-order in which incomparability between alternatives is possible. Although other methods such as Roy’s outranking method also deal with the issue of incomparability, there are important methodological differences between FMCA and outranking. We consider first an application of FMCA to a general NPV ranking problem. Some properties are derived which may be useful and we then describe an application to a practical example in which three projects yield the same NPV outcome. Different alpha-cuts imply different crisp quasi-orders. The use of FMCA shows that, in this sample case, though the projects have equal NPVs, a ranking may still be possible. Copyright © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Factors influencing participation in the Nova Scotia Environmental Farm Plan Program

There is growing interest in Nova Scotia's Environmental Farm Plan (NS EFP) program among farmers and policy makers because of several reasons. First, effectiveness of standardized or uniform beneficial management practices in mitigating the negative environmental impacts from agriculture is limited by inherent heterogeneities in agricultural production systems. In addition, there is heightened interest in farmers generating ecological goods and services to society. This study investigates the determinants of participation in the NS EFP program. A discrete choice model of NS EFP participation was applied to a sample of 83 farmers (representing a 31% response rate). To increase relevance of the study to program administrators, the study also examined farmers’ use of various channels and sources of information on farm conservation practices. The most used sources of information on farm conservation practices include a mix of interpersonal sources and government agencies. Although online information (especially those available for free) appears to be gaining popularity in usage, overall, electronic and computer channels of information (especially radio and television) were used less compared with traditional channels of communicating farm conservation information (such as newsletters and agricultural magazines). Regression analysis suggests that farm characteristics (i.e., farm type, farm size, farm income) and farmer capacity variables (i.e., specialized training and knowledge from EFP program information sessions and workshops, and on-farm stewardship demonstrations) were significant determinants of environmental farm planning.     

Endogenous managerial incentive contracts in a differentiated duopoly,with and without commitment

In a differentiated Cournot duopoly, we examine the contracts that firms' owners use to compensate their managers and the resulting output levels, profits and social welfare. If products are either sufficiently differentiated or sufficiently close substitutes, owners use Relative Performance contracts. For intermediate levels of product substitutability, they use Market Share contracts. When owners do not commit over the types of contracts, each type is an owner's best response to his rival's choice. Product substitutability has differential effects on output levels and profits, depending on the configuration of contracts in the industry. Finally, managerial incentive contracts are welfare enhancing if they increase consumers' surplus. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effect of foreign ownership on SMEs performance: An efficiency analysis perspective

This paper uses both Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Free Disposal Hull (FDH) models in order to determine different performance levels in a sample of 353 foreign equities operating in the Greek manufacturing sector. Particularly, convex and non-convex models are used alongside with bootstrap techniques in order to determine the effect of foreign ownership on SMEs’ performance. The study illustrates how the recent developments in efficiency analysis and statistical inference can be applied when evaluating performance issues. The analysis among the foreign equities indicates that the levels of foreign ownership have a positive effect on SMEs’ performance.     

Value Creation in Inter-Organizational Collaboration: An Empirical Study

Over the last decade, businesses, policymakers, and researchers alike have advocated the need for (and potential of) value creation through inter-organizational collaboration. Researchers have widely argued that organizations that are engaged in collaborative processes create value. Because researchers have tended to focus on the identification of organizational motivations and on key success factors for collaboration, however, both the nature and processes of value creation in inter-organizational collaboration have yet to be examined. A recent theory by Austin and Seitanidi (Nonprofit Volunt Sect Q 41(5):726–758, 2012a; Nonprofit Volunt Sect Q 41(6):929–968, 2012b) has proposed an analytical framework for analyzing value creation in inter-organizational collaboration, based on four types of value. The purpose of this current study is to empirically test this framework, and to provide key pointers for analyzing the nature of value, particularly in relation to learning. Our detailed empirical research is based on a 6-year retrospective case study of an inter-organizational partnership within an international development project for local economic development in Guatemala. The study’s contributions are twofold. First, it provides evidence of the critical path of the creation of diverse types of values in a collaborative process; second, it links the different types of value creation with the types of learning that occur in an inter-organizational process.     

INCOME AND WEALTH INEQUALITY: EVIDENCE AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Drawing on the author's work, this lecture presents evidence on U.S. income and wealth inequality. It presents series for top income and wealth shares, and the distribution of economic growth by income groups. It discusses the mechanisms behind the evolution of U.S. income and wealth inequality from historical and comparative perspectives. It analyzes the role of public policy and in particular taxation in the evolution of inequality. (JEL D31, F66, J24)     

Does R&D,human capital and FDI matter for TFP in OECD countries?

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the interplay between research and development (R&D), human capital (HC), foreign direct investment (FDI) and total factor productivity (TFP) in OECD countries. We divide the sample into two sub-groups; the European and the non-European states so as to account for underlying country heterogeneity. The analysis follows a panel data approach over the period 1995–2015, taking into account the modelling on non-stationarity, long-run relationships and short-run dynamics with a panel VAR. Both R&D and HC have a positive effect on TFP, whilst FDI has a positive and significant effect only in the case of non-European countries. Moreover, the contribution of R&D is higher than that of HC and FDI in all cases. Thus, based on these findings, policymakers should design and implement policies to increase resources invested in R&D, with a consistent ongoing spending review, to attract foreign direct investment, especially for the majority of the European and some of the non-European countries and to improve education system on a more productive innovation and research base.