Cost efficiency of the banking industry in the South Eastern European region

This paper analyses cost efficiency in the banking sector of six South Eastern European countries over the period 1998–2003. A stochastic frontier approach, incorporating firm-specific and country-related variables, indicates a generally low level of cost efficiency, with significant inefficiency differences among countries. Foreign banks and banks with higher foreign bank ownership involvement are associated with lower inefficiency. Furthermore, we observe a negative correlation of cost inefficiency with bank capitalization and firm market share, and a positive one with the fraction of loans in the asset portfolio.     

The interplay between quantitative easing,risk and competition: The case of Japanese banking

The Japanese economy is infamous for the magnitude of bank nonperforming loans that have originated back in the 1990s, whereas they are still causing controversies. Japan is also known for an extended quantitative easing programme of unprecedented scale. Yet the links between risk‐taking activities, quantitative easing and bank competition are largely unexplored. This paper employs, for the first time, the Boone indicator to measure bank competition in Japan to examine these underlying linkages. Given the scale of nonperforming loans, we explicitly measure bank risk‐taking based on a new data set of bankrupt and restructured loans. The dynamic panel threshold and panel Vector Autoregression analyses show that enhancing quantitative easing and competition would reduce bankrupt and restructured loans, but it would negatively affect financial stability. Given the recent adoption of negative rates in January 2016 by the Bank of Japan, our study provides new insights as clearly there is a trade‐off between quantitative easing and financial stability beyond a certain threshold. Caution, therefore, regarding further scaling up quantitative easing is warranted.     

THE RELATIVE EFFICIENCY OF PRIVATE AND PUBLIC SCHOOLS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Aside from revenue mobilization, one of the arguments for allowingthe private sector to assume a larger role in the provisionof education is that it would increase efficiency, as administratorsbecome more responsive to the needs of students and their parents.But what is the evidence? Based on case studies that compareprivate and public secondary education in Colombia, the DominicanRepublic, the Philippines, Tanzania, and Thailand, private schoolstudents generally outperform public school students on standardizedmath and language tests. This finding holds even after holdingconstant for the fact that, on average, private school studentsin these countries come from more advantaged backgrounds thantheir public. school counterparts. In addition, preliminaryevidence shows that the unit costs of private schools are lowerthan those of public schools. Although these results cannot,in themselves, be used as arguments for massive privatization,they indicate that governments should reconsider policies thatrestrain private sector participation in education. Furtherresearch is needed to determine whether some teaching and administrativepractices in private schools are applicable to public schools.      

Saving and investing for early retirement: A theoretical analysis

We study optimal consumption and portfolio choice in a framework where investors adjust their labor supply through an irreversible choice of their retirement time. We show that investing for early retirement tends to increase savings and reduce an agent's effective relative risk aversion, thus increasing her stock market exposure. Contrary to common intuition, an investor might find it optimal to increase the proportion of financial wealth held in stocks as she ages and accumulates assets, even when her income and the investment opportunity set are constant. The model predicts a decrease in risk aversion following strong market gains like those observed in the nineties.     

Dynamic efficiency and intergenerational altruism

Can dynamic inefficiency that may occur in societies populated by non-altruistic agents be removed by introducing intergenerational altruism? Although the answer seems to be negative, this paper shows, by means of a simple example, that the presence of an arbitrarily low proportion of altruists can be sufficient to prevent a society from reaching a non-Pareto optimal equilibrium. Intergenerational transfers from the old to the young can therefore provide an alternative—to public debt, fiat money or money bubbles which transfer goods from the young to the old—solution to the dynamic efficiency problem.     

Is the ladder sticky? Measuring semi-parametrically state dependence in earnings mobility

Employing the U.S. data for the 1990’s, we disentangle state dependence from unobserved heterogeneity in earnings mobility. The fixed effects dynamic multinomial logit utilized to model earnings quintiles dynamics fits the data very well, much more so than the autocorrelated dynamic ordered probit. Unordered models should thus be preferred to study earnings mobility. State dependence is found to be significant. It has a protective (anti-fall) effect at the top of the distribution and a detrimental (anti-rise) effect at the bottom. Consequently, the difficulty of climbing the ladder is not exclusively a question of individual characteristics. Public policies could thus be implemented to improve information about individuals’ ability and job offers, and to design more efficient wage-setting institutions.     

Cost-effectiveness of golimumab for the treatment of patients with moderate-to-severe ulcerative colitis in Quebec using a patient level state transition microsimulation

Objective: To conduct cost-effectiveness analyses comparing the addition of golimumab to the standard of care (SoC) for treatment of patients with moderate-to-severe ulcerative colitis (UC) who are refractory to conventional therapies in Quebec (Canada).

Methods: An individual patient state transition microsimulation model was developed to project health outcomes and costs over 10 years, using a payer perspective. The incremental benefit estimates for golimumab were driven by induction response and risk of a flare. Flare risks post-induction were derived for golimumab from the PURSUIT maintenance trial and extension study, while those for SoC were derived from the placebo arms of the Active Ulcerative Colitis Trials (ACT) 1 and 2. Other inputs were derived from multiple sources, including retrospective claims analyses and literature. Costs are reported in 2014 Canadian dollars. A 5% annual discount rate was applied to costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs).

Results: Compared with SoC, golimumab was projected to increase the time spent in mild disease or remission states, decrease flare rates, and increase QALYs. These gains were achieved with higher direct medical costs. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for golimumab vs SoC was $63,487 per QALY.

Limitations: The long-term flare projections for SoC were based on the data available from the ACT 1 and 2 placebo arms, as data were not available from the PURSUIT maintenance or extension trial. Additionally, the study was limited to only SoC and golimumab, due to the availability of individual patient data to analyze.

Conclusion: This economic analysis concluded that treatment with golimumab is likely more cost-effective vs SoC when considering cost-effectiveness acceptability thresholds from $50,000–$100,000 per QALY.     

Adaptive Market Hypothesis: Evidence from the Ghanaian Stock Market

This study examines the return predictability of two indices – the GSEALSH index and the GSEFSII index on the Ghana stock market. We compare results from analyzing the return series between January 4, 2011 and August 28, 2015 using the generalized spectral test, the automatic portmanteau Box-Pierce test and the wild-bootstrapped automatic variance ratio test. A rolling window approach is used to track whether returns are predictable or not through time. It was observed that the GSEALSH index was more highly predictable than the GSEFSII index in all the three tests. The results obtained are consistent with the Adaptive Market Hypothesis.     

Is GDP a Relevant Social Welfare Indicator? A Savers–Spenders Theory Approach

The use of GDP as the main index of progress and welfare of a country has been the subject of a long debate among economists. Using and extending the savers–spenders theory, we analyse the theoretical relationship between GDP and the welfare of a society. This analysis is undertaken using several different overlapping generations models which all take into account the great heterogeneity of consumer behaviour observed in the data (different labour supply choices, different degrees of altruism and/or different degrees of impatience to consume). The results indicate that GDP (per capita) is often a relevant index and is always a decent social welfare indicator.