Spanning tests in return and stochastic discount factor mean–variance frontiers: A unifying approach

We propose new spanning tests that assess if the initial and additional assets share the economically meaningful cost and mean representing portfolios. We prove their asymptotic equivalence to existing tests under local alternatives. We also show that unlike two-step or iterated procedures, single-step methods such as continuously updated GMM yield numerically identical overidentifying restrictions test, so there is arguably a single spanning test. To prove these results, we extend optimal GMM inference to deal with singularities in the long run second moment matrix of the influence functions. Finally, we test for spanning using size and book-to-market sorted US stock portfolios.     

Growth Empirics in Panel Data Under Model Uncertainty and Weak Exogeneity

This paper considers panel growth regressions in the presence of model uncertainty and reverse causality concerns. For this purpose, my econometric framework combines Bayesian model averaging with a suitable likelihood function for dynamic panel models with weakly exogenous regressors and fixed effects. An application of this econometric methodology to a panel of countries over the 1960–2000 period highlights the difficulties in identifying the sources of economic growth by means of cross‐country regressions. In particular, none of the nine candidate regressors considered can be labeled as a robust determinant of economic growth. Moreover, the estimated rate of conditional convergence is indistinguishable from zero. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evidence on the purchasing power parity in a panel of cities

Evidence is provided on the PPP hypothesis using a sample of 50 Spanish cities for a long time period through the application of panel data unit root tests. Although results suggest non-rejection of the PPP, short-run deviations – as measured by half-lives – indicate that real factors might be causing a slow rate of convergence to a common price index, even in highly integrated economies.     

EXCHANGE RATE FUNDAMENTALS,FORECASTING, AND SPECULATION: BAYESIAN MODELS IN BLACK MARKETS

Although speculative activity is central to black markets for currency, the out‐of‐sample performance of structural models in those settings is unknown. We substantially update the literature on empirical determinants of black market rates and evaluate the out‐of‐sample performance of linear models and non‐parametric Bayesian treed Gaussian process (BTGP) models against the random walk benchmark. Fundamentals‐based models outperform the benchmark in out‐of‐sample prediction accuracy and trading rule profitability measures given future values of fundamentals. In simulated real‐time trading exercises, however, the BTGP achieves superior realized profitability, accuracy and market timing, while linear models do no better than a random walk. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tourist accommodation,consumption and platforms

The expansion of mediated accommodation on peer to peer (P2P) platforms, such as Airbnb, has generated extensive economic impact and structural changes in all the destinations involved. This study proposes an innovative analysis which estimates the economic impact associated with the expenditure of tourists staying in traditional hotel establishments in comparison to the impact of those staying in tourist housing mediated through P2P platforms. This research analyses fieldwork based on 1343 surveys carried out in the city of Granada, one of the main tourist destinations in Spain. Through the application of the input–output methodology we found that tourists staying in tourist housing mediated through P2P platforms generate a greater impact as a consequence of longer average stays and more heterogeneously distributed consumption. Their average expenditure is similar to that of tourists in hotels, but the indirect impact generated is greater. Consequently, we can better comprehend the economic impact associated with these platforms and their real effect. Public planners have to consider this information as part of the regulation and restriction of this activity.     

Food Prices,Ethics and Forms of Speculation

Journal of Business Ethics - This paper examines the role of speculative motives in the determination of commodity prices and specifically food related commodity prices. The motivation for this...     

GROWING LIKE SPAIN: 1995–2007

Measured total factor productivity (TFP) fell in Spain during the boom years of 1995–2007. Using administrative data from the quasi-universe of firms, we show that there was an increase in misallocation, which was more severe in sectors where connections with public officials are more important for business success. We write and estimate a simple model of cronyism in which heterogeneous firms invest in political connections. Our quantitative exercise concludes that the institutional decline over this period costed 1.9% growth in TFP per year and a 0.8% annual increase in the resources spent by firms in establishing political connections.     

Run length distributions and economic design of [`(X)]\bar X charts with unknown process variance

The run length distribution of charts with unknown process variance is analized using numerical integration. Both traditional chart limits and a method due to Hillier are considered. It is shown that setting control limits based on the pooled standard deviation, as opposed to the average sample standard deviation, provides better run length performance due to its smaller mean square error. The effect of an unknown process variance is shown to increase the area under both tails of the run length distribution. If Hillier’s method is used instead, only the right tail of the run length distribution is increased. Collani’s model for the economic design of charts is extended to the case of unknown process variance by writing his standardized objective function in terms of average run lengths.     

Fiscal Consolidations and Economic Growth

The aim of this paper is to deepen the understanding of the macroeconomic consequences of fiscal consolidations. In particular, there is evidence in the literature of fiscal consolidation episodes producing (non‐Keynesian) expansionary effects in the short run. We replicate this result for a panel of OECD countries under exogeneity of the fiscal consolidation. However, we provide some evidence that output growth might affect the fiscal tightening process so that fiscal consolidations are not exogenous to economic growth. Once we allow for feedback effects from economic growth to fiscal adjustments, we find that expansionary effects disappear and recover the typical Keynesian effect of fiscal adjustments. This finding points to the need to take these short‐term negative implications into account in the design of fiscal consolidations.     

Capital mobility and international sharing of cyclical risk

This paper investigates whether the international globalization of financial markets allows for significant cross-country risk-sharing at the business cycle frequency. We find that cross-country risk-sharing is still limited and this is unlikely to be the result of financial frictions that limit state-contingent contracts. Part of the limited international risk sharing could be the consequence of frictions that de-facto reduce the short-term mobility of financial capital. But even with these frictions we find significant divergence between model predictions and the data.