Downsizing and productivity growth: Myth or reality?

The conventional wisdom is that the rising productivity in the U.S. manufacturing sector in the 1980s has been driven by the apparently pervasive downsizing over this period. Aggregate evidence clearly shows falling employment accompanying the rise in productivity. In this paper, we examine the microeconomic evidence using the plant level data from the Longitudinal Research Database (LRD). In contrast to the conventional wisdom, we find that plants that increased employment as well as productivity contribute almost as much to overall productivity growth in the 1980s as the plants that increased productivity at the expense of employment. Further, there are striking differences by sector (defined by industry, size, region, wages, and ownership type) in the allocation of plants in terms of whether they upsize or downsize and whether they increase or decrease productivity. Nevertheless, in spite of the striking differences across sectors defined in a variety of ways, most of the variance of productivity and employment growth is accounted for by idiosyncratic factors.     

Openness,Ownership, and Regional Economic Growth in Vietnam

ABSTRACT

In this article, we examine the influences of exports, multinational corporations (MNCs), and the share of state-owned enterprise (SOE) production in regional economic growth in Vietnam for the years 1996–2006. Various estimations, without and with considering the endogeneity problem, confirm that exports and the presence of MNCs are influential factors on promoting economic growth. Crucially, provinces with a higher ratio of SOE production have experienced higher economic growth. However, the positive relationship between SOE share and economic growth should be carefully interpreted.     

Productivity spillovers from foreign multinationals and trade protection: firm‐level analysis of Vietnamese manufacturing

This paper examines how the presence of foreign multinational enterprises (MNEs) affects productivity in domestic private firms in Vietnamese manufacturing in 2005–10. The paper also examines how import protection has affected these productivity spillovers and how spillovers from wholly foreign MNEs and joint ventures differ. The most consistent result suggests wholly foreign MNEs impart negative spillovers while joint ventures tend to generate positive spillovers. Theory and random effects estimates also indicate that import protection reduces local firm productivity and weakens the effect of spillovers from all MNEs; but this result is not obtained when a fixed effects estimator is used. Results are similar in samples of labour‐intensive industries, which include close to three fourths of all sample firms, but differ markedly for more capital‐intensive groups.     

Creating Backward Linkages from Multinationals: Is there a Role for Financial Incentives?

We investigate whether government subsidies encourage foreign multinationals to create linkages with domestic suppliers. To this end we use a unique panel dataset of foreign multinationals located in Ireland for which we have exhaustive information on grant receipt. Our results indicate that while European and US foreign plants develop backward linkages independently of grant receipt, multinationals from other parts of the world respond positively to government support. Our results hold even when controlling for the possible endogeneity of grants and the boundedness of the linkage variable. We conclude that governments should not apply a “one‐size‐fits‐all” approach to incentivizing foreign multinationals.     

Analysis of a Generalized Penalty Function in a Semi-Markovian Risk Model

Abstract

In this paper an extension of the semi-Markovian risk model studied by Albrecher and Boxma (2005) is considered by allowing for general interclaim times. In such a model, we follow the ideas of Cheung et al. (2010b) and consider a generalization of the Gerber-Shiu function by incorporating two more random variables in the traditional penalty function, namely, the minimum surplus level before ruin and the surplus level immediately after the second last claim prior to ruin. It is shown that the generalized Gerber-Shiu function satisfies a matrix defective renewal equation. Detailed examples are also considered when either the interclaim times or the claim sizes are exponentially distributed. Finally, we also consider the case where the claim arrival process follows a Markovian arrival process. Probabilistic arguments are used to derive the discounted joint distribution of four random variables of interest in this risk model by capitalizing on an existing connection with a particular fluid flow process.     

Implications of biotech traits with segregation costs and market segments: the case of Roundup Ready(R) Wheat

Roundup Ready^® Wheat (RRW) is one of the first geneticallymodified (GM) traits for the wheat sector. We develop a spatialpartial equilibrium model of the higher-protein hard wheat marketand assess the changes in the distribution of welfare associatedwith release and adoption of RRW. It incorporates segments forGM aversion in each market and segregation costs for each segment.In the most likely scenario, producer and consumer welfare increasesby $301 and $252 million, respectively. Producers of hard redspring wheat in the US and Canada gain. There are welfare lossesto hard red winter wheat growers in the US and to EU consumerswho have to import at a higher cost.     

Long-run Causality, with an Application to International Links Between Long-term Interest Rates

In this paper we give a precise definition of long-run causality in a multivariate non-stationary, possibly cointegrated, framework. A variable is said to be causal for another in the long-run if knowledge of the past of the former improves long-run predictions of the latter. In a VAR framework, we show that long-run non-causality can be easily tested with a Wald statistics, conditionally on the cointegration rank. The methodology is used to study long-run causal links between US, German, and French long-term interest rates from January 1990 to June 1997.     

Evaluation of a mining project under the joint effect of commodity price and exchange rate uncertainties using real options valuation

Cash flows generated by mining projects tend to be volatile and are extensively influenced by exogenous variables, notably commodity prices and exchange rates. The traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) method, which is normally used for economic feasibility studies and mining project evaluations, presents inconsistencies because the method fails to adequately address uncertainties and operational flexibilities and often ignores certain specific market conditions. Numerous studies have been carried out for mining project evaluations using the real options valuation (ROV) technique for assessing commodity price uncertainty, but there is no research on the combined effects of price and exchange rate uncertainties. Therefore, in order to assess the economic viability of a mining project more accurately, the commodity price and its inherent volatility, the exchange rate and its inherent volatility, and the correlation parameters between them have been incorporated into the model and used in the evaluation process. One of the interesting findings revealed in the study is that project values are overestimated if only commodity price uncertainty is considered in evaluating the project value instead of the joint effect of commodity price and exchange rate uncertainties. This new ROV technique will explore the opportunity to utilize an alternative methodology for approximating project values and to identify valuation opportunities to enhance economic gains or to mitigate economic losses, where the DCF valuation method does not.