Monetary–fiscal policy interactions and fiscal stimulus

Increases in government spending trigger substitution effects—both inter- and intra-temporal—and a wealth effect. The ultimate impacts on the economy hinge on current and expected monetary and fiscal policy behavior. Studies that impose active monetary policy and passive fiscal policy typically find that government consumption crowds out private consumption: higher future taxes create a strong negative wealth effect, while the active monetary response increases the real interest rate. This paper estimates Markov-switching policy rules for the United States and finds that monetary and fiscal policies fluctuate between active and passive behavior. When the estimated joint policy process is imposed on a conventional new Keynesian model, government spending generates positive consumption multipliers in some policy regimes and in simulated data in which all policy regimes are realized. The paper reports the model's predictions of the macroeconomic impacts of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act's implied path for government spending under alternative monetary–fiscal policy combinations.     

A Brief Survey of Modern Optimization for Statisticians

Modern computational statistics is turning more and more to high‐dimensional optimization to handle the deluge of big data. Once a model is formulated, its parameters can be estimated by optimization. Because model parsimony is important, models routinely include non‐differentiable penalty terms such as the lasso. This sober reality complicates minimization and maximization. Our broad survey stresses a few important principles in algorithm design. Rather than view these principles in isolation, it is more productive to mix and match them. A few well‐chosen examples illustrate this point. Algorithm derivation is also emphasized, and theory is downplayed, particularly the abstractions of the convex calculus. Thus, our survey should be useful and accessible to a broad audience.     

Modelling innovation support systems for regional development – analysis of cluster structures in innovation in Portugal

The present article offers a concise theoretical conceptualization and operational analysis of the contribution of innovation to regional development. The latter concepts are closely related to geographical proximity, knowledge diffusion and filters and clustering. Institutional innovation profiles and regional patterns of innovation are two mutually linked, novel conceptual elements in this article. Next to a theoretical framing, the article employs the regional innovation systems concept as a vehicle to analyse institutional innovation profiles. Our case study addresses three Portuguese regions and their institutions, included in a web-based inventory of innovation agencies which offered the foundation for an extensive database. This data-set was analysed by means of a recently developed principal coordinates analysis followed by a Logistic Biplot approach (leading to a Voronoi mapping) to design a systemic typology of innovation structures where each institution is individually represented. There appears to be a significant difference in the regional innovation patterns resulting from the diverse institutional innovation profiles concerned. These profiles appear to be region specific. Our conclusion highlights the main advantages in the use of the method used for policy-makers and business companies.     

Becoming an evidence‐based HR practitioner

Evidence‐based HR (EBHR) is a decision‐making process combining critical thinking with use of the best available scientific evidence and business information. We describe how to get started as an evidence‐based HR practitioner. Actively managing professional decisions is a key aspect of EBHR. Doing so involves making decisions, especially consequential or recurring ones, using practices supported by high‐quality research. We present a step‐by‐step set of approaches to becoming an evidence‐based HR practitioner: from getting started, through everyday practices and continuous learning to integrating EBHR into your organisation. In offering guidance for evidence‐based practice, this article underscores the connection between effective practice and organisational research.     

Causality effects in return volatility measures with random times

We provide a structural approach to identify instantaneous causality effects between durations and stock price volatility. So far, in the literature, instantaneous causality effects have either been excluded or cannot be identified separately from Granger type causality effects. By giving explicit moment conditions for observed returns over (random) duration intervals, we are able to identify an instantaneous causality effect. The documented causality effect has significant impact on inference for tick-by-tick data. We find that instantaneous volatility forecasts for, e.g., IBM stock returns must be decreased by as much as 40% when not having seen the next quote change before its (conditionally) median time. Also, instantaneous volatilities are found to be much higher than indicated by standard volatility assessment procedures using tick-by-tick data. For IBM, a naive assessment of spot volatility based on observed returns between quote changes would only account for 60% of the actual volatility. For less liquidly traded stocks at NYSE this effect is even stronger.     

Distributional dynamics following a technological revolution

In this paper we explore the link between technological change and the dynamics of employment, production, and the distribution of earnings. Technological change not only advances society's collective capability but also changes the relative productivities of its members. The latter effect establishes the likely winners and losers from advances in productive capabilities, provides a mechanism that can generate cyclical fluctuations in output as well as employment, and determines the evolution of the earnings distribution.
Dynamique de la répartition à la suite d'une révolution technologique . Ce mémoire examine le lien entre le changement technologique et la dynamique de l'emploi, de la production et de la répartition des revenus. Le changement technologique n'augmente pas seulement la capacité collective d'une société mais modifie aussi les productivités relatives de ses membres. Ce dernier effet crée des gagnants et des perdants, déclenche un mécanisme qui peut générer des fluctuations cycliques tant dans le niveau de production que dans celui de l'emploi, et détermine l'évolution de la répartition des revenus.     

International Benchmarking for Monopoly Price Regulation: The Case of Australian Gas Distribution

Price-cap regulation is widely applied to network industries. However, regulators often encounter the problem of asymmetric information on efficient costs. Benchmarking can help reduce this problem. We present a benchmarking analysis, conducted for an Australian regulator, that derives measures of efficiency for Australian gas distributors relative to U.S. counterparts. Several techniques, such as data envelopment analysis and stochastic frontier analysis, are used to ensure that our measures are robust to methodology choice. We conclude with a discussion of how the regulator used the benchmarking results, along with other information, to help it determine appropriate price caps.     

The economic growth impact of natural disasters in developing countries: Evidence from hurricane strikes in the Central American and Caribbean regions

In this paper we investigate the macroeconomic impact of natural disasters in developing countries by examining hurricane strikes in the Central American and Caribbean regions. Our innovation in this regard is to employ a wind field model on hurricane track data to arrive at a more scientifically based index of potential local destruction. This index allows us to identify damages at a detailed geographical level, compare hurricanes' destructiveness, as well as identify the countries that are most affected, without having to rely on potentially questionable monetary loss estimates. Combining our destruction index with macroeconomic data we show that the average hurricane strike caused output to fall by at least 0.83 percentage points in the region, although this depends on controlling for local economic characteristics of the country affected and what time of the year the storm strikes.     

Increasing consumer well-being: risk as potential driver of happiness

This article investigates the relation between risk and individual well-being. We propose a theoretical model of happiness that makes a distinction between ex ante evaluations of happiness and ex post assessments. The main assumptions of the model are tested through three studies based on anchoring vignettes. We show that, even if, ex ante, consumers fear high risk and do not associate it to a high level of happiness, their ex post evaluation of well-being is generally higher when identical consequences result from a high-risk situation than from a low-risk situation. Control over risk-taking reinforces the gap between ex ante and ex post measures of happiness. Thus, our article provides empirical evidence about a positive relation between risk and individual well-being, suggesting that risky experiences have the potential to increase consumer well-being.     

Coordination and learning in games with strategic substitutes and complements

This paper experimentally compares the impact of the presence of strategic substitutes (GSS) and complements (GSC) on players’ ability to successfully play equilibrium strategies. By exploiting a simple property of the ordering on strategy spaces, our design allows us to isolate these effects by avoiding other confounding factors that are present in more complex settings, such as market games. We find that the presence of strategic complementarities significantly improves the rate of Nash play, but that this effect is driven mainly by early rounds of play. This suggests that GSS may be more difficult to learn initially, but that given sufficient time, the theoretically supported globally stable equilibrium offers a good prediction in both settings. We also show that increasing the degree of substitutability or complementarity does not significantly improve the rate of Nash play in either setting, which builds on the findings of previous studies.