Spatial statistical modelling of insurance risk: a spatial epidemiological approach to car insurance

Spatial models, such as the Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model, have long been used in epidemiology and disease mapping. A common research question in these subjects is modelling the number of disease events per region; here the BYM models provides a holistic framework for both covariates and dependencies between regions. We use these tools to assess the relative insurance risk associated with the policyholders geographical location. A Bayesian modelling approach is presented and an elastic net is used to reduce the large number of possible geographic covariates. The final inference is performed using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation. The model is applied to car insurance data from If P&C Insurance together with spatially referenced covariate data of high resolution, provided by Insightone. The entire analysis is performed using freely available R-packages. Including spatial dependence when modelling the number of claims significantly improves on the result obtained using ordinary generalised linear models. However, the support for adding a spatial component to the model for claims cost is weaker.     

Measuring industrial upgrading: applying factor analysis in a global value chain framework

ABSTRACT

A key question for promoting international competition is how to improve the position of countries and industries in global value chains (GVCs). The first step is to properly measure industrial upgrading in GVCs. This is not a trivial issue because upgrading has not been defined unambiguously. Several authors have used different (and sometimes related) measures, all of which indicate certain aspects of upgrading. Rather than trying to find the single, ultimate measure of upgrading, we propose a different approach. We examine the multidimensionality of industrial upgrading, using eight indicators in factor analysis. Four of the eight indicators adopt the GVC perspective and include, for example, the growth of the share in value-added exports. We provide three quantitative dimensions of industrial upgrading: process upgrading, product upgrading, and skill upgrading. With these dimensions, we compare and analyze the upgrading of different countries and industries using the World Input–Output Database.     

Do firms lease to hedge? CEO risk-taking and operating lease intensity

Operating leases are used extensively for financing, but their ability to separate ownership and use also creates hedging opportunities. We investigate whether firms recognize such opportunities by examining the relation between chief executive officer (CEO) risk-taking incentives and the use of operating leases. Consistent with firms using operating leases to hedge, we find higher CEO risk-taking incentives lower operating lease intensity. To address endogeneity, we use the adoption of Statement of Financial Accounting Standards 123R as an exogenous shock to option compensation, dynamic panel generalized method of moments, simultaneous equations, and change regressions. Our results are robust to placebo and alternative tests.     

Green technology innovation: Anatomy of exploration processes from a learning perspective

This paper examines how established firms use their core competences to diversify their business by exploring and ultimately developing green technologies. In contrast to start‐ups dedicated to a green mission, diversifying into green markets by developing new products based on existing core competences has proven to be challenging. This is because the exploration processes to find a match between green technology opportunities and internal competences is complex and new to most established firms. This paper gains insights into exploration processes for green technologies and the learning modes and outcomes linked to these processes. We examined exploration processes at the microlevel in an embedded case study of an engineering firm using a combination of the “fireworks” innovation process model and organizational learning theory. First, we found that developing green technologies involves a long‐term exploratory process without guarantee of (quick) success and likely involves many exploration failures. Second, as exploration unfolds along multiple technology trajectories, learning occurs in individual exploration paths (on‐path), when new paths are pursued (path‐initiation), and when knowledge from one path is spilled over to subsequent paths (across‐paths). Third, to increase their chances for success, firms can increase the efficiency of exploration by fostering a failure‐friendly organizational culture, deliberately experimenting, and purposefully learning from failures.     

Supply chain capabilities for facilitating the internationalisation of retailers – a multiple case study of three Swedish retail companies

ABSTRACT

Market-oriented aspects of retail internationalisation have received a lot of research attention since the 1990s. However, beyond these aspects lies also supply-chain oriented capabilities that are necessary for retailers to successfully internationalise into foreign sales markets. By using a perspective based on resource-based theories, this paper explores supply-chain oriented capabilities that facilitate retail internationalisation. The research is based on a multiple case study of three Swedish retailers. Through the perspective of research based theories, specifically capabilities, the empirical data is studied in a single-case as well as a cross-case analysis. Findings reveal three supply chain-oriented capability categories (leadership capability, integration capability and learning capability) of importance for retail internationalisation. Resources necessary for the capabilities are to be found internally at the retailer, but also externally at other firms. This research adds to the market-oriented knowledge on retail internationalisation by adding a supply-chain oriented perspective. Further, it provides an understanding of the early phases of retail internationalisation.     

Regime switching rough Heston model

This model combines two important stylized features of volatility, the rough behavior consistent with a Hurst parameter less than , and the regime switching property consistent with more long-term economic considerations. It is nevertheless highly tractable in the sense of semianalytic formulae for European options, and permits a partial Monte Carlo method of similar computational speed as the semianalytic formula (at an appropriate number of Monte Carlo simulations). While option prices are relatively insensitive to the choice of Hurst parameter, introducing rough volatility allows for a better fit to the at-the-money skew.     

Aufgaben des Controllings im Rahmen des Risikomanagementprozesses

Ohne Zusammenfassung Dr. Pascal Nevries ist Gesch?ftsführer des Center for Controlling & Management (CCM). Daneben ist er Habilitand am Lehrstuhl von Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Weber sowie Mitglied des Instituts für Management & Controlling (IMC). Dipl.-Kfm. Erik Strau? ist wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter am Center for Controlling & Management (CCM). Daneben ist er Doktorand am Lehrstuhl von Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Weber sowie Mitglied des Instituts für Management & Controlling (IMC).     

The Neuer Markt as an institution of creation and destruction

The market for publicly traded equity is the heart of a modern capitalist system. In particular, the market for newly listed firms is in turn a bellwether for the public equity market because the entry gives firms expanded access to capital, allowing them to emerge and grow. On the other hand, stock markets also serve as an institution to reallocate productive resources from non-surviving to surviving firms. We describe the Neuer Markt—a special segment of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange in Germany—as an institution to foster the creation of new firms and their destruction.

The Stambaugh bias in panel predictive regressions

This paper analyzes predictive regressions in a panel data setting. The standard fixed effects estimator suffers from a small sample bias, which is the analogue of the Stambaugh bias in time-series predictive regressions. Monte Carlo evidence shows that the bias and resulting size distortions can be severe. A new bias-corrected estimator is proposed, which is shown to work well in finite samples and to lead to approximately normally distributed t-statistics. Overall, the results show that the econometric issues associated with predictive regressions when using time-series data to a large extent also carry over to the panel case. The results are illustrated with an application to predictability in international stock indices.