Hypothetical extractions from a global perspective

ABSTRACT

The hypothetical extraction method (HEM) has been widely used to measure interindustry linkages and the importance of industries. HEM considers the hypothetical situation in which a certain industry is no longer operational. HEM was developed for national economies, using national input–output tables. When performing HEM, it is assumed (often implicitly) that the input requirements that were originally provided by the extracted industry are met by additional imports in the post-extraction situation. Applying HEM to global multiregional input–output tables then causes serious problems. It is no longer sufficient to assume that the required inputs are imported. Instead, it is necessary to indicate explicitly how much is imported from each origin to replace the original inputs. Our adaptation of HEM is the global extraction method (GEM). As an illustration, GEM is applied to the extraction of the motor vehicle industry in China, the US, and Germany, using the 2014 WIOD input–output table.     

Understanding rural change—demography as a key to the future

The last decades have seen a rapidly growing interest in foresight methodology. Methods have been developed in corporate and governmental communication exercises often labelled technology foresight. In reality, these foresights have often drifted into processes of social change, since technological change is hard to foresee beyond what is already in the pipe-line. Forecasting of social change, however, must be based on solid knowledge about the mechanisms of continuity and change. Virtually nothing can be said about the future without relating to the past; foresights and futures studies are about revealing the hidden pulse of history. Hence, the answer to forecasting the future is empirical research within the social sciences.Demographic change has been recognised as a key determinant for explaining social change. Population changes are fairly predictable and the age transition can explain a wide range of socio-economic changes. For rural futures, demographic change is a key issue, since age structure in rural areas is often uneven and also unstable due to migration patterns. A number of policy related questions as well as research challenges are raised as a consequence.     

Food additive regulation in the UK

This paper reviews the use, regulation and testing of food additives in the UK. Comparisons are drawn with other industrialized countries. In particular, the reasons (both explicit and implicit) for the use of additives are examined and the institutional mechanisms for their control are described. Since regulatory policy is dependent on toxological expertise, the contribution and adequacy of toxological science is considered. Present regulations are viewed to have been too heavily influenced by the food industry at the expense of the protection of the consumer, and several possible avenues for reform of both toxological science and regulatory policy are explored.     

Second-Best Congestion Pricing: The Case of an Untolled Alternative

This paper deals with second-best one-route congestion pricing in case of an untolled alternative. Using a two-link network simulation model, the effects of various demand and cost parameters on the relative efficiency of one-route tolling are analyzed. It is investigated whether the existence of costs of congestion charging may be a reason for one-route tolling to be more “overall efficient” than two-route tolling. Finally, the efficiency of revenue-maximizing one-route and two-route tolling is discussed.     

Generalized extreme value discrete choice demand models : Existence and uniqueness of market equilibria

Generalized extreme value (GEV) random utility choice models have been suggested as a development of the multinomial logit models that allows the random components of various alternatives to be statistically dependent. This paper establishes the existence of and provides necessary and sufficient uniqueness conditions for the solutions to a set of equations that may be interpreted as an equilibrium of an economy, the demand side of which is described by a multiple-segment GEV random choice model. The same equations may alternatively be interpreted in a maximum likelihood estimation context. The method employed is based on optimization theory and may provide a useful computational approach. The uniqueness results suggest a way to introduce segregation/integration effects into logit type choice models. Generalization to non-GEV models are touched upon.