A drunk and her dog: a spurious relation? Cointegration tests as instruments to detect spurious correlations between integrated time series

A significant correlation between integrated time series does not necessarily imply a meaningful relation. The relation can also be meaningless, i.e. spurious. Cointegration is sometimes illustrated by the metaphor of ‘a drunk and her dog’. The relation between integrated processes is meaningful, if they are cointegrated. To prevent spurious correlations, integrated series are usually transformed. This implies a loss of information. In case of cointegration, these transformations are no longer necessary. Moreover, it can be shown that cointegration tests are instruments to detect spurious correlations between integrated time series. This paper compares the Dickey–Fuller and the Johansen cointegration test. By means of Monte Carlo simulations, we found that these cointegration tests are a much more accurate alternative for the identification of spurious relations compared to the rather imprecise method of utilizing the R ²-and DW-statistics recommended by some authors. Furthermore, we demonstrate that cointegration techniques are precise methods of distinguishing between spurious and meaningful relations even if the dependency between the processes is very low. Using these tests, the researcher is not in danger of either neglecting a small but meaningful relation or regarding a relation as meaningful which is actually spurious.     

The Effects of Progressive Levels of Interactivity and Vividness in Web Marketing Sites

Abstract

This experiment examines interactivity and vividness in commercial web sites. We expected increased levels of interactivity and vividness would lead to more positive attitudes toward web sites, stronger feelings of telepresence, and greater attitude—behavior consistency. In addition, we expected increased levels of vividness to lead to the development of more enduring attitudes toward the site. Participants explored four web sites. Increases in interactivity and vividness were associated with increased feelings of telepresence. In addition, increases in vividness were associated with more positive and more enduring attitudes toward the web site. Implications for new media researchers and practitioners are discussed.     

The Effects of CEO Trustworthiness on Directors’ Monitoring and Resource Provision

This research investigates the interplay between leadership styles and institutional corporate social responsibility (CSR) practices. A large-scale field survey of managers reveals that firms with greater transformational leadership are more likely to engage in institutional CSR practices, whereas transactional leadership is not associated with such practices. Furthermore, stakeholder-oriented marketing reinforces the positive link between transformational leadership and institutional CSR practices. Finally, transactional leadership enhances, whereas transformational leadership diminishes, the positive relationship between institutional CSR practices and organizational outcomes. This research highlights the differential roles that transformational and transactional leadership styles play for a firm’s institutional CSR practices and has significant implications for theory and practice.     

Cultural compatibility in internal knowledge transfers: an application to hotel chain growth

This work addresses the internal transfer of knowledge from a cultural perspective when hotel chains grow. The analysis begins with an approach to the intra-organisational transfer of knowledge in hotel chain expansion. Later, culture in organisations is addressed; this gives rise to the proposal of cultural compatibility as a determinant of the intra-firm transfer of knowledge. Moreover, reference is made to possible sources of cultural incompatibility: location abroad of the new hotel, conversions where most employees stay, and small size of the new hotel. The hypotheses are tested in the Spanish hotel context. The results show effects and causes of the compatibility between the cultural context in which the knowledge to be transferred originated and the cultural framework in which it is to be implemented.     

Ownership structure and diversification in a scenario of weak shareholder protection

This work examines the influences of ownership concentration and insider ownership on corporate strategies for diversification within a scenario characterized by poor protection of shareholder interests. We find evidence of a quadratic relationship between ownership concentration and diversification, and a cubic relationship between diversification and insider ownership. These results point towards the high probability of both expropriation and entrenchment phenomena, respectively, in this kind of scenario. We also find that concentrated ownership requires high levels of insider ownership, in order to prevent negative externalities of diversification. Another result shows that entrenchment externalities affect diversification before they erode firm value, which suggests that for low levels of diversification, firm value is still not negatively affected. Additionally, our results show that control mechanisms, such as debt, director remuneration and compliance with codes of good practice, are negatively related to the level of diversification. Overall, our results confirm the theoretical relevance of agency theory in explaining managerial attitudes towards corporate strategy, i.e. diversification. Furthermore, companies characterized by deficiencies in shareholder legal protection, concentrated ownership structures and a higher likelihood of managers being entrenched, should focus on the correct functioning of corporate governance mechanisms.     

Has China’s fast industrial growth been efficient? An industry-level investigation with a newly constructed data set

We adopt contemporaneous, nonradial and variable returns to scale assumptions in a data envelopment analysis (DEA) exercise to address the inefficiency problem in Chinese industries in different policy regimes using a newly constructed data set for 24 Chinese manufacturing industries in 1952–2008. While confirming that the central planning period was indeed a ‘graveyard’ for productivity that entailed severe technical regress and efficiency losses, we do not find a steady improvement in efficiency during the reform period despite strong technical progress. We argue that the resurgent prominence of the government and the state sector since the late 1990s, especially following China’s World Trade Organization accession, has obstructed the efficiency improvement.     

Distorting taxes and interest on reserves

Few governments in developed economies currently pay interest on reserves. However, Goodfriend (2001) [Goodfriend, M., 2001. Interest on reserves and monetary policy, mimeo, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond] concludes that it is a useful tool to implement monetary policy. In a monetary growth model with a financial intermediary and a firm who needs to borrow to pay wages, it is shown that paying interest on reserves financed by a labor tax reduces welfare.     

Properties of the Sample Autocorrelations of Nonlinear Transformations in Long-Memory Stochastic Volatility Models

The autocorrelations of log-squared, squared, and absolute financialreturns are often used to infer the dynamic properties of theunderlying volatility. This article shows that, in the contextof long-memory stochastic volatility models, these autocorrelationsare smaller than the autocorrelations of the log volatilityand so is the rate of decay for squared and absolute returns.Furthermore, the corresponding sample autocorrelations couldhave severe negative biases, making the identification of conditionalheteroscedasticity and long memory a difficult task. Finally,we show that the power of some popular tests for homoscedasticityis larger when they are applied to absolute returns.     

Prediction intervals in conditionally heteroscedastic time series with stochastic components

Differencing is a very popular stationary transformation for series with stochastic trends. Moreover, when the differenced series is heteroscedastic, authors commonly model it using an ARMA-GARCH model. The corresponding ARIMA-GARCH model is then used to forecast future values of the original series. However, the heteroscedasticity observed in the stationary transformation should be generated by the transitory and/or the long-run component of the original data. In the former case, the shocks to the variance are transitory and the prediction intervals should converge to homoscedastic intervals with the prediction horizon. We show that, in this case, the prediction intervals constructed from the ARIMA-GARCH models could be inadequate because they never converge to homoscedastic intervals. All of the results are illustrated using simulated and real time series with stochastic levels.     

The 'Hojas de Ganado' of the Monastery of Guadalupe, 1597-1784: an accounting instrument for fundamental economic decisions

This paper examines the development of a new form of accounting system which was introduced at the Monastery of Guadalupe around 1597. Increasing financial pressure on those charged with the management of the economic activities of the Monastery necessitated the development of an accounting system which would enable decision making. The system that was introduced led to the production of documents known as 'Hojas de Ganado', or 'Livestock Sheets'. The nature of the information contained in these sheets suggests a move away from the traditional form of cash accounting, prevalent at the time, towards a more modern system of accounting which enabled the Monastery's management to make decisions, on the basis of profit figures, as to the best way to manage its lands and economic operations.