Walking a slippery line: Investments in social values and product longevity

Corporate sponsorship of events that support social values (e.g., human rights) help firms infuse their products with symbolic meaning, prolonging their life cycle. Yet, higher product prices might spark perceptions that the firm invests in social values for calculative or opportunistic motives, in which case event sponsorship is unlikely to deliver the expected benefits in the form of product longevity. This study explores this potential tension empirically, using data related to sponsored social events, entry prices, and product longevity for a U.S. cosmetics producer. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Life Insurance Mathematics with Random Life Tables

Abstract

When the insurer sells life annuities, projected life tables incorporating a forecast of future longevity must be used for pricing and reserving. To fix the ideas, the framework of Lee and Carter is adopted in this paper. The Lee-Carter model for mortality forecasting assumes that the death rate at age x in calendar year t is of the form exp(α_x + (β_xK_t), where the time-varying parameter K_t reflects the general level of mortality and follows an ARIMA model. The future lifetimes are all influenced by the same time index K_t in this framework. Because the future path of this index is unknown and modeled as a stochastic process, the policyholders' lifetimes become dependent on each other. Consequently the risk does not disappear as the size of the portfolio increases: there always remains some systematic risk that cannot be diversified, whatever the number of policies. This paper aims to investigate some aspects of actuarial mathematics in the context of random life tables. First, the type of dependence existing between the insured life lengths is carefully examined. The way positive dependence influences the need for economic capital is assessed compared to mutual independence, as well as the effect of the timing of deaths through Bayesian credibility mechanisms. Then the distribution of the present value of payments under a closed group of life annuity policies is studied. Failing to account for the positive dependence between insured lifetimes is a dangerous strategy, even if the randomness in the future survival probabilities is incorporated in the actuarial computations. Numerical illustrations are performed on the basis of Belgian mortality statistics. The impact on the distribution of the present value of the additional variability that results from the Lee-Carter model is compared with the traditional method of mortality projection. Also, the impact of ignoring the dependence hat arises from the model is quantified.     

Gram–Charlier densities: a multivariate approach

This paper introduces a new family of multivariate distributions based on Gram–Charlier and Edgeworth expansions. This family encompasses many of the univariate semi-non-parametric densities proposed in financial econometrics as marginal of its different formulations. Within this family, we focus on the analysis of the specifications that guarantee positivity to obtain well-defined multivariate semi-non-parametric densities. We compare two different multivariate distributions of the family with the multivariate Edgeworth–Sargan, Normal, Student's t and skewed Student's t in an in- and out-of-sample framework for financial returns data. Our results show that the proposed specifications provide a reasonably good performance, and would therefore be of interest for applications involving the modelling and forecasting of heavy-tailed distributions.     

Parasoziale Meinungsführerschaft

In a democratic society, the media operate as a public space in which political and social topics are discussed. As media communicators influence and restrict both the topics of discussion and the amount of information available from in the media, they exert a substantial influence on the recipients’ formation of political opinion. The present study examines this impact by integrating the theoretical concepts of opinion leadership and parasocial relationship, resulting in a phenomenon referred to as parasocial opinion leadership. Based on the results of a qualitative survey of recipients, the concept was then substantiated. Parasocial opinion leadership is based on viewer’s perceptions and comes into existence, if (1) a recipient ascribes certain attributes to a media communicator based on a parasocial relationship; which (2) allows for a gradual influence of the media personality on the recipient’s opinions and attitudes by fulfilling at least one of the three functions information and reduction of complexity, orientation or arousal of interest.     

Comparison of Sampling Schemes for Dynamic Linear Models

Hyperparameter estimation in dynamic linear models leads to inference that is not available analytically. Recently, the most common approach is through MCMC approximations. A number of sampling schemes that have been proposed in the literature are compared. They basically differ in their blocking structure. In this paper, comparison between the most common schemes is performed in terms of different efficiency criteria, including efficiency ratio and processing time. A sample of time series was simulated to reflect different relevant features such as series length and system volatility.     

Children's Responses to Advertising in Social Games

This study explored children's (ages 9 through 12) level of persuasion knowledge and peer influence susceptibility concerning advertising in social games and investigated how these variables affect children's desire for the brands advertised in these games. Results showed that (1) children have a fairly good knowledge of the advertising in social games yet hold uncritical attitudes toward it and claim to be not very susceptible to peer influence; (2) the most important predictors of children's desire for the advertised brands are a low critical attitude and high peer influence susceptibility; and (3) recognition and understanding of advertising in social games is effective in reducing advertised brand desire only for children who are familiar with social games.     

Mergers and Exclusionary Practices in Health Care Markets

We evaluate the relationship between insurers (payers) and providers of health care (hospitals) when they each have a nonnegligible share of the market. We focus in particular on their incentives to merge and the existence of equilibria where payers offer preferential treatment to a subset of hospitals. We demonstrate that hospitals are more likely to merge without consolidating their capacities the less competitive they are vis-à-vis the payer's market. Payers are more likely to merge without consolidating their capacities the less competitive either the hospitals' or the payers' market is. A given payer follows an exclusionary strategy when its starting bargaining position vis-à-vis hospitals is weak. At such exclusionary equilibria, payers tend to distinguish themselves from neighboring payers by contracting with a different subset of hospitals.     

Nationality and low-cost trip duration. A microeconometric analysis

This study examines the determinants of trip duration of international tourism using low-cost carrier services from the UK, Germany, France and Italy; top tourist emitting countries in the EU. Data is from a survey conducted for one of the largest low-cost carriers tourist markets; the Girona–Catalonia region in Spain. A model of traveller/tourist demand is estimated using an econometric duration model. It is found that that while there are some common effects for associated with the four nationalities of tourist, some differences exist relating to such things as age or education.