Debates and dissent inside the FOMC during WWII

Abstract

We demonstrate that even though during WWII the interest rate was close to zero supporting the financing of the military effort, dissent inside the FOMC occurred with a similar frequency to other policy episodes. Our analysis highlights that the debates which resulted in dissents turned around two broad issues: the size of the Fed’s balance sheet as well as the functioning of and communication with financial markets. Thus, we argue that the conventional view depicting the Fed as merely accommodating treasury needs should be revised. Our detailed investigation of dissents emphasises the modernity of the objections raised by Fed officials.     

The Neutrality Illusion: Biased Economics,Biased Training,and Biased Monetary Policy. Testing the Role of Ideology on FOMC Voting Behaviour

This research is trying to shed light on two myths that are usually widespread: the first one being the idea of the academic economist as a neutral scientist finding uncontestable consensual truths, thanks to uncontestable empirical methods, the second, the idea of the central banker as a Weberian neutral bureaucrat setting aside personal beliefs to act mechanically for the common good. Deconstructing this ‘neutrality illusion’, this work argues that economics is actually a divided and ideologically marked discipline despite its aim at natural-science-type-legitimacy. It argues in a related discussion that such ideological bias also impedes a purely neutral conduct of monetary policy, undermining the very idea of central bank independence. Linking these two arguments, it argues that graduate training in economics is the first place for the formation of biased preferences, because of the substantial ideological sorting that exists across universities. Using a unique database on FOMC members’ votes and ideology, the paper tests this idea empirically and despite unavoidable caveats, finds robust evidence of a systematic impact of the ideological features of their alma mater on FOMC members’ voting behaviour – impact that we found more important than the other traditional determinants of central bankers’ actions.     

Facilitating multimodal logistics and enabling information systems connectivity through wireless vehicular networks

The adoption of information and communication technology (ICT) has made it possible to experience high levels of visibility, control and connectivity across the entire supply chain. However, in road transport logistics, wireless ICT applications like cellular networks, Wi-Fi, UMTS, 4G and WiMax have not entirely solved reliability and connectivity problems due to difficulties associated with limited range, scalability and security. This paper examines the feasibility of using a vehicular network technology, dedicated short range communication (DSRC), in a multimodal logistics environment as means of providing enhanced visibility and connectivity using a secure access architecture. The secure access architecture is necessary to provide a high degree of security to the detailed visibility involving road haulage feeding port operations using a centralised port service.     

Perceived Acceptability of Organizational Layoffs and Job Alliances During a Recession: A Mapping of Portuguese People’s Views

The present study aimed to explore and map the views of Portuguese laypersons regarding the acceptability of downsizing and restructuring measures during a recession. Two hundred and seven participants with various levels of training in economics were presented with a number of realistic scenarios depicting various measures, and were asked to indicate the extent to which they considered them to be acceptable. The scenarios were created by varying three factors likely to have an impact on people’s views: the magnitude of a company’s reduction in net sales, the magnitude of planned downsizing, and the way in which downsizing would be implemented, either through layoffs, job alliances or both. Six qualitatively different personal positions were found. Four of these following positions were expected: (1) never acceptable (15 %), (2) mainly depends on the magnitude of downsizing (22 %), (3) mainly acceptable (17 %) and (4) job alliance (8 %). Two unexpected positions were also observed: (5) drastic measures (8 %) and (6) undetermined (29 %).     

Irrational exuberance in the Chinese iron ore market?

The rapid run-ups in the Chinese iron ore market in the first half of 2016 have sparked much concern about the appearance of speculative bubbles in this market among many market analysts. Using a recently developed bubble testing procedure, we confirm that there indeed existed periods of irrational exuberance in the Chinese iron ore market. However, most of the bubble periods are short-lived, reflecting the market’s ability to quickly respond to price deviations unjustified by fundamentals. The longest bubble period occurred in mid-2014, corresponding to a period of relatively low trading volume. Using a fractional probit model, we find evidence consistent with the hypothesis that market liquidity may play a role in bubble occurrences.     

Hedging effectiveness of fertilizer swaps

The fertilizer swaps market is a potential tool to protect against fertilizer price risk. The swaps evaluated here are cash settled using The Fertilizer Index. Hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness are calculated for urea and DAP diammonium phosphate (DAP)) swaps. Urea and DAP swaps perform poorly as a hedging tool over a one-week horizon. As the hedging horizon increases, the hedging effectiveness of swaps improves. The swaps are more effective in mitigating risk across ocean freight routes than across inland routes. The limited hedging effectiveness is due to high spatial basis risk in fertilizer markets.     

Minimum wage or negative income tax: why skilled workers may favor wage rigidities

In this article, we analyze the political choice of the extent and means of income redistribution between high and low-skilled workers. Redistributive tools encompass both fiscal transfers (a negative income tax) and a minimum wage requirement. We assume the use of fiscal instruments alone to be the first-best means of redistribution. We show that high-skilled workers may favor a second-best, minimum wage requirement because it increases unemployment, hence raising the marginal cost of redistribution, and creates a justification for them to moderate low-skilled workers’ claim for redistribution.      

Introducing a general class of species diversification models for phylogenetic trees

Phylogenetic trees are types of networks that describe the temporal relationship between individuals, species, or other units that are subject to evolutionary diversification. Many phylogenetic trees are constructed from molecular data that is often only available for extant species, and hence they lack all or some of the branches that did not make it into the present. This feature makes inference on the diversification process challenging. For relatively simple diversification models, analytical or numerical methods to compute the likelihood exist, but these do not work for more realistic models in which the likelihood depends on properties of the missing lineages. In this article, we study a general class of species diversification models, and we provide an expectation-maximization framework in combination with a uniform sampling scheme to perform maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of the diversification process.