Societal risks as seen by Chinese students living in Macao

The present study reports on mean risk magnitude judgements expressed by Chinese students living in Macao on 87 hazardous activities, substances and technologies. These judgements were compared with findings on African, American and European samples. Despite high similarity in mean results, standard deviations, and linear correlation with the other countries, Macao appears to be the country in which the level of risk perception was clearly the highest, and this seems largely due to five items connected with violence and crime. These results are explained by the exceptionally high level of crime in Macao and its crude display by the local media.     

Credibility in Favor of Unlucky Insureds

Abstract

The classical Bühlmann credibility formula estimates the hypothetical mean of a particular insured, or risk, by a weighted average of the grand mean of the collection of risks with the sample mean of the given insured. If the insured is unfortunate enough to have had large claims in the previous policy period(s), then the estimate of future claims for that risk will also be large. In this paper we provide actuaries with a method for not overly penalizing an unlucky insured while still targeting the goal of accuracy in the estimate. We propose a credibility estimator that minimizes the expectation of a linear combination of a squared-error term and a first-derivative term. The squared-error term measures the accuracy of the estimator, while the first-derivative term constrains the estimator to be close to constant.     

Trends in occupational mobility in France: 1982–2009

Are labor markets more turbulent now than thirty years ago? Most job and worker flows imply that the answer is “no”, with one exception: occupational mobility, which increased substantially in the United States. This paper remedies the lack of comparable evidence by focusing on France for the years 1982 to 2009. After correcting for various statistical biases and discrepancies that affect the measurement of occupational mobility, it documents this reallocation process overall and in different subgroups. The data reveal that, over the period considered, the fraction of workers switching occupation exhibits no trend in the aggregate because changing demographics mask increases in mobility within several age and education groups. After taking these composition effects into account, occupational mobility increased sharply in France as well.     

Competition for Jobs in a Growing Economy and the Emergence of Dualism

The objective of the article is to explain the rising share of short-term employment in Europe. In a matching model, it is shown that a slowdown in the growth of labour productivity leads to the emergence of temporary (short-term) jobs and increases their share of total employment. Higher population growth also increases the share of temporary jobs. Finally, the much blamed firing costs are found to be neutral when there is no floor on wages. In addition, in periods of low growth, the rise in the share of short-term jobs weakens workers' bargaining position.     

Effectiveness of brand placement: New insights about viewers

Since traditional media have become saturated, the technique of product placement has been attracting growing interest. This research explores new insights concerning viewers' reactions during a second viewing of a movie. A sample of 3532 French viewers of DVDs has been used to link the way the movie was chosen, viewed and appreciated (or not) with a spontaneous brand placement recall, the day after the film was watched at home. Results make a contribution to strengthening professionals' interest in the technique, and to adding to academic knowledge of the topic. A first viewing of the movie at the cinema improves brand placement recall, as does watching the movie at home on a large home cinema screen. Such an improvement also occurs when a DVD movie is chosen either because of the movie director or when the viewer likes the movie.     

Technical analysis compared to mathematical models based methods under parameters mis-specification

In this study, we compare the performance of trading strategies based on possibly mis-specified mathematical models with a trading strategy based on a technical trading rule. In both cases, the trader attempts to predict a change in the drift of the stock return occurring at an unknown time. We explicitly compute the trader’s expected logarithmic utility of wealth for the various trading strategies. We next rely on Monte Carlo numerical experiments to compare their performance. The simulations show that under parameter mis-specification, the technical analysis technique out-performs the optimal allocation strategy but not the Model and Detect strategies. The latter strategies dominance is confirmed under parameter mis-specification as long as the two stock returns’ drifts are high in absolute terms.     

Forecast performance of WASDE price projections for U.S. corn

We conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the season‐average price projections for U.S. corn as published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), an important issue given reduced resources and increased program scrutiny within the Federal Government. This study is the first in the literature to evaluate the WASDE corn projections relative to futures adjusted forecasts throughout the forecasting cycle using a lengthy evaluation period (1980/81–2012/13). We find that WASDE projections provide lower RMSEs relative to futures adjusted forecasts for 9 of the 16 forecast periods, 4 of which are statistically different. Encompassing tests show that WASDE projections often provide incremental information not present in the futures adjusted forecasts. Composite forecasts based on futures adjusted forecasts and WASDE projections reduced the RMSEs over all forecast periods by an average 12–16%. Favorable average trading profits may be generated for some forecast months using WASDE projections. Overall, our results suggest that WASDE projections of the U.S. corn season‐average price provide useful information to the market and could enhance the efficiency of the agricultural sector.     

Are specific skills an obstacle to labor market adjustment?

This paper shows that specialized education reduces workers’ mobility and hence their ability to cope with economic changes. We illustrate this point using labor force data from two countries having experienced important macroeconomic turbulence; a large economy with rigid labor markets, Poland, and a small open economy with increased flexibility, Estonia. We find that holding a vocational degree is associated with much longer unemployment duration spells and higher likelihood of leaving activity for older workers. We then build a theoretical framework in which young agents’ careers are heavily determined by the type of initial education, and analyze the transition to a new steady-state after a sectoral demand shift. Quantitative exercises suggest that the over-specialization of the labor force in Poland led to much higher and persistent unemployment compared to Estonia during the period of EU enlargement. Traditional labor market institutions (wage rigidity and employment protection) lead to an increase of the unemployment gap, but to a lesser extent.     

Selecting Your Inflation Targeters: Background and Performance of Monetary Policy Committee Members

Abstract. This paper starts by describing the composition of monetary policy committees (MPCs) in inflation‐targeting and non‐targeting countries. The experience of MPC members on their inflation performance is then compared, opposing inflation targeters with non‐targeters. Our sample covers the major Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries, in the period 1999–2008. Our results first show that MPCs are different in inflation‐targeting (versus non‐targeting) countries. They also reveal that policy‐makers' backgrounds influence inflation, and that the influence of MPCs' experience is much greater in inflation‐targeting countries, while size effects are more important for committees that do not target inflation.     

Clusters as a driving engine for FDI

This paper develops a model that highlights the importance of clusters for attracting foreign direct investment. It shows from a game theoretical perspective how the combination of setting up a cluster and implementing policy reforms will be a key engine for attracting FDI. Based on agglomeration externalities, the paper shows that the very emergence of clusters can make investment so profitable that investors can even afford to tolerate more policy-induced distortions than otherwise. With perfect information, it shows the existence of multiple equilibria, in which some countries attract FDI while others do not. An extension to the context of imperfect information refines the analysis to a unique equilibrium, in which some investors respond to reforms, while others do not. The paper presents case studies to support the findings.