Drowned by numbers? Stabilization properties of an EU-wide unemployment insurance system

The recent crisis has given rise to proposals for the creation of a European unemployment insurance system. We simulate an EU-wide mechanism under various scenarios, varying methods of financing (common or country-specific contribution rates) and triggers for pay-outs (all time or contingent clauses). We analyse the impact of the system using different measures of stabilization under different fiscal multipliers. A system operating during bad times (periods where the increase in unemployment is large) would reduce GDP growth variability but also growth correlation among member countries. Hence, there is a trade-off between stabilization and synchronization of national business cycles.     

Optimal redistributive taxation with both extensive and intensive responses

We study optimal income taxation when labor supply reacts along the intensive and extensive margins. Individuals are heterogeneous across two unobserved dimensions: their skill and disutility of participation. We develop a new method to analytically derive conditions under which optimal marginal tax rates are non-negative everywhere. It is typically optimal to provide a distinct level of transfer to the non-employed and to workers with negligible earnings. Numerical simulations illustrate these properties for the US. We also apply our method to sign output distortions in other adverse selection frameworks with random participation, namely the monopoly nonlinear pricing and the regulatory monopoly problems.     

Time to Slow Down for High-Frequency Trading? Lessons from Artificial Markets

In this paper, we focus on the French cancel order tax implemented on 1 August 2012. We question the effectiveness of the modified tax with no exemptions and we analyze its impact on market quality, measured by liquidity, volatility and efficiency. Additionally, this paper raises the question whether this tax leads to a reduction of high-frequency trading (HFT) activities and a decline in trading volume. Based on our findings we report that introduction of cancel order tax only slightly reduces HFT activities, but it significantly affects market liquidity, increases market volatility and leads to deteriorating market efficiency. We conclude that it is difficult to dissuade investors from entering into unproductive trades and eliminate negative outputs of HFT (such as price manipulations) through tax, without altering the benefits of HFT like liquidity provision and efficient price discovery.     

Decision making and brand choice by older consumers

Older adults constitute a rapidly growing demographic segment, but stereotypes persist about their consumer behavior. The goal of this review was to develop a more considered understanding of age-associated changes in consumer decision making. Our theoretical model suggests that age-associated changes in cognition, affect, and goals interact to make older consumers’ decision-making processes, brand choices, and habits different from those of younger adults. We first review literature on stereotypes about the elderly and then turn to an analysis of age differences in the inputs (cognition, affect, and goals) and the outcomes (decisions, brand choices, and habits) of decision processes.     

Perceived Legitimacy of Executives Bonuses in Time of Global Crisis: A Mapping of Portuguese People’s Views

The present study aimed to explore and map the views of Portuguese laypersons regarding the legitimacy of bonuses for senior executives. Two hundred eight participants, with various levels of training in economics, were presented with a number of concrete scenarios depicting the circumstances in which senior executives have received bonuses of variable amounts, and they were asked to indicate the extent to which such bonuses may be considered as legitimate. The scenarios were created by varying four factors likely to have an impact on people’s views: (a) the extent to which the objectives fixed by the company have been met or not, (b) the global economic context in which the company has performed, (c) the availability of experienced senior executives in the sector under consideration, and (d) the amount of money that has been awarded, in terms of both the euros and multiples of the average worker’s pay. Five qualitatively different personal positions were found. The most common positions were that executive bonuses were either never legitimate (30 %) or not very legitimate (25 %). People without any background in economics were more likely to hold these views than people with a background in economics. The remaining 45 % of the participants supported the awarding of bonus, but their support was conditional, and the main condition was the extent to which the company’s objectives were met. Thus for most participants, the practice of awarding extra pay to senior executives was either (a) never legitimate, or (b) legitimate only when the company’s objectives have been attained, or (c) legitimate only when, even in a time of economic crisis, the company’s objectives have been surpassed.     

Macroeconomic forecasting using penalized regression methods

We study the suitability of applying lasso-type penalized regression techniques to macroe-conomic forecasting with high-dimensional datasets. We consider the performances of lasso-type methods when the true DGP is a factor model, contradicting the sparsity assumptionthat underlies penalized regression methods. We also investigate how the methods handle unit roots and cointegration in the data. In an extensive simulation study we find that penalized regression methods are more robust to mis-specification than factor models, even if the underlying DGP possesses a factor structure. Furthermore, the penalized regression methods can be demonstrated to deliver forecast improvements over traditional approaches when applied to non-stationary data that contain cointegrated variables, despite a deterioration in their selective capabilities. Finally, we also consider an empirical applicationto a large macroeconomic U.S. dataset and demonstrate the competitive performance of penalized regression methods.     

Beyond the labour income tax wedge: the unemployment-reducing effect of tax progressivity

In this paper, we argue that, for a given overall level of labour income taxation, a more progressive tax schedule increases employment. From a theoretical point of view, higher progressivity increases overall employment through a wage moderating effect and also because employment of low-paid workers is more elastic to wages. We test these theoretical predictions on a panel of 21 OECD countries over 1998–2008. Controlling for the burden of taxation at the average wage, our estimates suggest that a more progressive tax schedule reduces the unemployment rate and increases the employment rate. These findings are confirmed when we account for the potential endogeneity of both average taxation and progressivity. Overall, our results suggest that policy-makers should not only focus on the detrimental effects of tax progressivity on in-work effort, but also consider the employment-enhancing effects.     

On a risk model with dependence between interclaim arrivals and claim sizes

We consider an extension to the classical compound Poisson risk model for which the increments of the aggregate claim amount process are independent. In Albrecher and Teugels (2006 Albrecher, H. and Teugels, J. 2006. Exponential behavior in the presence of dependence in risk theory. Journal of Applied Probability, 43(1): 257–273. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), an arbitrary dependence structure among the interclaim time and the subsequent claim size expressed through a copula is considered and they derived asymptotic results for both the finite and infinite-time ruin probabilities. In this paper, we consider a particular dependence structure among the interclaim time and the subsequent claim size and we derive the defective renewal equation satisfied by the expected discounted penalty function. Based on the compound geometric tail representation of the Laplace transform of the time to ruin, we also obtain an explicit expression for this Laplace transform for a large class of claim size distributions. The ruin probability being a special case of the Laplace transform of the time to ruin, explicit expressions are therefore obtained for this particular ruin related quantity. Finally, we measure the impact of the various dependence structures in the risk model on the ruin probability via the comparison of their Lundberg coefficients.