Speculation and corn prices

It is commonly asserted that speculative trading activities are largely behind the high and volatile food commodity price behaviour since 2006. In this article, we revisit this hypothesis by investigating how different speculative measures affect our conclusion on the role of speculation. Four speculative measures are considered, including index trading activities, non-commercial net long positions, Working’s speculative index, and an excessive speculative volume index. These four measures imply different underlying hypotheses about the role of speculation on commodity price movements and encompass most of the measures used in the recent literature on the role of speculation in commodity markets. Using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, we show a mixed impact of speculative trading on corn prices depending on the measure used. While shocks to index trading activities and excess speculation as measured by Working’s T have either zero or negative impact on corn prices, a positive shock to non-commercial net positions or the Tadesse index significantly increases the price of corn. However, the magnitude of the impact is not large, at most about $0.30 per bushel in real terms. Our findings are robust to structural breaks, alternative ordering of variables, and an alternative specification of the model.     

Impact of age on brand awareness sets: a turning point in consumers’ early 60s

Age impacts the brands a consumer knows, i.e., the “awareness set” which critically determines brand consideration and choice. Brands are in between common nouns and proper names but previous psychology research offers contradictory results on the impact of age on knowledge of common nouns versus proper names. Our empirical study on radio stations shows that the direct effect of age on awareness sets is marked by a turning point in consumers’ early 60s, with two contrasted patterns. For long-established brands, age has a direct positive impact up to the turning point but no significant direct impact afterward. For recent brands, there is no direct impact of age before that point but a strongly negative direct impact afterward. Age has also indirect effects through several mediators.     

Hedonic Housing Prices in Paris: An Unbalanced Spatial Lag Pseudo‐Panel Model with Nested Random Effects

This paper estimates a hedonic housing model based on flats sold in the city of Paris over the period 1990–2003. This is done using maximum likelihood estimation, taking into account the nested structure of the data. Paris is historically divided into 20 arrondissements, each divided into four quartiers (quarters), which in turn contain between 15 and 169 blocks (îlot, in French) per quartier. This is an unbalanced pseudo?panel data containing 156,896 transactions. Despite the richness of the data, many neighborhood characteristics are not observed, and we attempt to capture these neighborhood spillover effects using a spatial lag model. Using likelihood ratio tests, we find significant spatial lag effects as well as significant nested random error effects. The empirical results show that the hedonic housing estimates and the corresponding marginal effects are affected by taking into account the nested aspects of the Paris housing data as well as the spatial neighborhood effects.Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The use of surveys among wine growers in vineyards of the middle-Loire Valley (France), in relation to terroir studies

Studies of terroir have been increasingly developed during the last two decades, in different vineyards all around the world. The indigenous knowledge and the know-how of wine growers is an important part of the French terroir concept which must be taken into account in terroir studies. In the middle-Loire Valley (France) results of terroir studies were made readily accessible to all the wine growers through cartographic atlases, including maps of terroir units and their components as well as advisory maps. In this paper, the authors use different kinds of surveys among wine growers for the knowledge of terroir and show the interest of this approach.     

Who Supports the ECB? Evidence from Eurobarometer Survey Data

This paper studies the determinants of the support for the European Central Bank (ECB) in the member countries of the European Monetary Union (EMU) and their evolution from 1999 to 2015. Our contribution is to examine micro‐level sociodemographic characteristics from the Eurobarometer surveys jointly with macroeconomic indicators of trust in a central bank in order to evaluate econometrically their relative importance over time. Pseudo‐panel logit estimates reveal that the former have a dynamically stable, and generally stronger influence taken altogether, when compared with the latter. Interestingly, we find that while expected inflation becomes a positive determinant of trust in the ECB after the global financial crisis (GFC), actual inflation gets no statistical significance. Having taken centre stage in the monetary policy debate in the Euro‐area post‐GFC and especially since 2013, excessive disinflation and risk of deflation attracted strong attention by the public and have consequently affected its perceptions about the ECB. Accordingly, our results emphasise forward lookingness of the EMU population with regard to ‘deflation scares’ in determining trust in the ECB, in addition to disentangling the contributions of the key individual‐level sociodemographic factors, and can duly inform ECB's communication strategy.     

Regulation in the air: price-and-frequency caps

In spite of deregulation on the air-transportation markets, many connections are still operated by a single operator on regional markets, in particular in Europe. Evidence thus calls for some regulation in this industry. There is, however, a great concern for the (possibly negative) consequences of price regulation on the quality of services. We argue that both aspects should be considered jointly and propose a mechanism for the decentralization of the optimal structure of services. The regulatory procedure is based on the sole book-keeping data and requires the regulator to use only an estimate of travellers’ average value of time.     

Technological races and stock market value: evidence from the pharmaceutical industry

We provide estimates of the abnormal stock market returns associated with pharmaceutical firms’ announcements of technological and regulatory successes in drug development. On the basis of these estimates, we find empirical support for two key features of technological race models. First, we observe that leaders in the innovation race record higher abnormal returns than do latecomers when they announce a success. Hence, firms should indeed be racing to complete the innovation process before their rivals. Second, pharmaceutical firms are adversely affected by the technological and regulatory success of their rivals, implying that interfirm spillovers in drug development are not sufficient to offset technological rivalry. Additional results are also produced regarding the impact of competition on R&D racing and the extent of therapeutic competition.     

The pattern and predictors of intentionally inflicted injuries on Greek adults; data from an Emergency Injury Surveillance System (EDISS)

Background Intentional injuries due to violence are both a social and a public health problem in most societies. This study assesses the patterns and some of the sociodemographic determinants of violence-related injuries among Greek adults. Methods Data recorded by the Emergency Department Injury Surveillance System (EDISS) during the two-year period 1996-1997 were used. This database relies on all age injury data collected in the emergency departments of three sentinel hospitals, covering both urban and rural population areas. Results Among 52026 recorded injuries, 1322 (3%) were violence related, excluding self-inflicted injuries, while the majority of injuries (28269) were attributed to home and leisure accidents. Weapons of any type were used only in 5% of violence-related injuries. In comparison to home and leisure injuries, the intentionally inflicted injuries occurred more frequently among men, among those 25-54 years old, and were particularly common among migrants and during late night and early morning hours. Violence-related injuries frequently occur in pubs, restaurants, cafeterias and other places of entertainment. However, 52% of violence-related injuries among women occurred at home. Intentional injuries were generally more severe than unintentional ones. Conclusions We conclude that violence is not a negligible public health problem in the Greek population, but is considerably less serious than in most other developed countries. In particular, firearms-related injuries represent a very small fraction of the generally low incidence of violence-related injuries in this Mediterranean country.     

Optimal Pricing and Price-Cap Regulation in the Postal Sector

This paper studies the optimal price structure in the postal sector when worksharing is available (e.g., for collection, sorting and transportation) and when the operator faces a break-even constraint. Users differ in opportunity and cost to engage in worksharing. We determine the optimal worksharing discount and provide sufficient conditions (on demand functions) under which it exceeds the ECPR level. Furthermore, we show that the optimal prices can be implemented through a global price cap imposed on a weighted average of the prices of all products. The appropriate weights are proportional to the market demand (evaluated at optimal prices) of the corresponding products.