Government size,government debt and globalization

This article empirically investigates the effect of globalization on government size and debt. Using panel heterogeneous cointegration techniques to a panel of developing and developed countries, it finds that globalization reduces government size and debt. In terms of components of globalization, government size is found to increase with trade openness but decreases with financial, social and political globalization. On the other hand, government debt increases with financial and trade openness but decreases with social and political globalization. The evidence is robust to different estimation methods and different samples. Our data also indicate unidirectional causality running from globalization measures to government size and debt.     

Optimal forecast evaluation: fertilizer prices

High fertilizer price volatility makes production planning and inventory management difficult, so accurate fertilizer price forecasts would be beneficial. This article evaluates commercial forecasts for urea and diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices based on forecast accuracy and optimal forecast properties. Most forecasts pass the tests, but forecasts for the US New Orleans urea and the US Gulf DAP markets, in particular, do not and thus show potential to be improved.     

The price effect of allowing non-pharmacy outlets to sell OTC drugs in Korea

By the amendment of the Pharmaceutical Affairs Act in 2012, non-pharmacy outlets (confined to 24-hour convenience stores) in Korea were permitted to sell 13 over-the-counter (OTC) drugs. This article empirically examines the effect of the regulatory reform on OTC drug prices. To do so, we use county-level price data of 7 OTC drugs for the years of 2012 and 2013. Among them, 2 OTC drugs are available at non-pharmacy outlets due to the deregulation, and the remaining 5 are still only available at pharmacies. Employing a difference-in-differences estimation strategy, we find that after the regulatory reform, prices of the 2 OTC drugs increased by only 1.1% while those of the rest 5 increased by 6.5%. This result has implications for the government’s policy of designating non-pharmacy outlets that can sell OTC drugs from the viewpoint of consumer welfare.     

Macroeconomic shocks and stock market returns: the case of Korea

This study examines the effects of macroeconomic shocks on key macro variables, including stock market returns in Korea, using the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. We suggest a three-variable SVAR model incorporating inflation, output growth and stock returns. We adopt a nonzero z-ratio restriction for the long-run identifying assumption to allow for economically meaningful relationships among variables. While our results support the negative (positive) relation of demand (supply) shocks to stock returns, we also find that demand shocks influence stock market variance more significantly than supply shocks do. The sub-period analysis finds that global market fluctuations during the global financial crisis have relatively little effect on Korean stock market performance. We also examine a generalized five-variable model that includes the foreign exchange rate and interest rate, confirming the results from the three-variable case.     

Competition in the Korean Internet Portal Market: Network Effects, Profit, and Market Efficiency

Internet portals serve as platforms for coordinating advertisements, content, and user markets. We model portal structure with South Korean market data to explain network effects and other competition factors. We also analyze network effects on profit and market efficiency. The results indicate a negative network effect from banner advertisements in the user market, which is countered by a network effect from content provision. In the advertising market, the network effect from user demand is positively identified, which explains profit making through increased user visits. Furthermore, we show that network effects due to market concentration result in increases in consumer surplus.     

Social comparison among competing firms

Extending social comparison theory to the context of interfirm competition, we investigate whether and under what conditions firms may benefit by deviating from consumers' views concerning firm comparisons. Based on all of the possible dyadic competitive comparisons among the 26 automakers in the United States, we found that: (1) a focal firm enjoys a greater increase in sales than the target firm when it compares itself with a more reputable target firm, even though consumers do not perceive the focal firm to be comparable to the more reputable firm; and (2) a focal firm enjoys a greater increase in sales than the target firm when it avoids comparison with a less reputable target firm, even though consumers compare the focal firm with the less reputable firm. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Inflation and the finance–growth nexus

This paper re-investigates whether there exist inflation thresholds in the finance–growth linkage. By applying the Caner and Hansen's (2004) instrumental-variable threshold regression approach to the dataset of Levine et al. (2000), we find strong evidence of a nonlinear inflation threshold in the relationship, below which financial development exerts a significantly positive effect on economic growth, while, above which, the growth effect of finance appears to be insignificant. Furthermore, we also find a positive and significant relationship between finance and productivity for inflation rates below the threshold level, but no such relationship is detected for inflation rates above the critical level. This result suggests that finance influences growth mainly through the productivity channel.     

Dynamic effects of trade openness on financial development

This paper employs the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) approach of Pesaran et al. (1999) to study the dynamic effects of trade openness on financial development. The advantage of the PMG estimator over other dynamic panel econometric techniques is that it allows short-run coefficients, speeds of adjustment and error variances to vary across countries, with cross-country homogeneity restrictions only on long-run parameters. Our results spanning 88 countries over 1960–2005 show that a positive long-run relationship between trade openness and financial development coexists with a negative short-run relationship. But when splitting the data into different income or inflation groups, this finding is observed only in relatively low-income countries or high-inflation economies.     

Nonlinear dynamics in exchange rate deviations from the monetary fundamentals: An empirical study

This paper reexamines empirical performance of the monetary exchange rate model with nonlinear dynamics of exchange rate deviation from the monetary fundamentals. First, we apply unit root test of Park and Shintani (2005) to post-Bretton Woods exchange rate data and able to reject the null of unit root deviation from monetary fundamentals against alternative hypothesis of nonlinear stationary process for deutschemark, pound, and Swiss franc. Our empirical results find that exchange rates show high degree of mean-reversion with larger deviation and long periods of overvaluation and undervaluation of dollar. We also find empirical evidence of predictability of the monetary fundamentals at longer horizons.     

FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT ON GROWTH CONVERGENCE

This paper investigates whether the impacts of financial development on growth convergence vary with the stage of real development. We implement this analysis through the instrumental variable threshold regression approach proposed by Caner and Hansen. Our empirical evidence shows that financial intermediary development leads to long‐run convergence in growth of both economic activity and productivity. Moreover, such convergence‐enhancing effects of financial intermediation are stronger for less‐developed countries than for the more industrialized. In addition, the data reveal that stock market development assists growth convergence only in low‐income countries.