Forecast performance of WASDE price projections for U.S. corn

We conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the season‐average price projections for U.S. corn as published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), an important issue given reduced resources and increased program scrutiny within the Federal Government. This study is the first in the literature to evaluate the WASDE corn projections relative to futures adjusted forecasts throughout the forecasting cycle using a lengthy evaluation period (1980/81–2012/13). We find that WASDE projections provide lower RMSEs relative to futures adjusted forecasts for 9 of the 16 forecast periods, 4 of which are statistically different. Encompassing tests show that WASDE projections often provide incremental information not present in the futures adjusted forecasts. Composite forecasts based on futures adjusted forecasts and WASDE projections reduced the RMSEs over all forecast periods by an average 12–16%. Favorable average trading profits may be generated for some forecast months using WASDE projections. Overall, our results suggest that WASDE projections of the U.S. corn season‐average price provide useful information to the market and could enhance the efficiency of the agricultural sector.     

The value of a stochastic information structure

Upon observing a signal, a Bayesian decision maker updates her probability distribution over the state space, chooses an action, and receives a payoff that depends on the state and the action taken. An information structure determines the set of possible signals and the probability of each signal given a state. For a fixed decision problem, the value of an information structure is the maximal expected utility that the decision maker can get when the observed signals are governed by this structure. Thus, every decision problem induces a preference order over information structures according to their value. We characterize preference orders that can be obtained in this way. We also characterize the functions defined over information structures that measure their value.     

多阶段实验室实验中参与者行为调整过程的估测--在一价共同价值拍卖中的应用

许多用多阶段实验数据检验的经济学关系本身是一种动态的关系,理应用动态方法建模。面板数据的时间维度使我们有机会掌握经济行为调整的动态过程。在这样的数据结构下,普通最小二来法、随机影响和固定影响的估测方法导致有偏的和不一致的参数估计。在本文中,我们分析了一系列一价共同价值拍卖(first price common valueauction)实验的数据。我们采用的动态面板数据估计法能作出无偏一致的参数估计。通过研究没有经验和经验丰富的竞价者如何在各自的实验过程中调整竞价策略,我们发现,经验丰富的竞价者会因前期的实际损失调整他们的竞价策略(折现率),但是其他形式的信息反馈对他们没有明显的影响,而无经验竞价者的竞价策略会受各种反馈信息的影响,且往往比经验丰富的竞价者反映更强。最后,经验丰富的和无经验的竞价者都在策略调整中基本忽视以前的经验(竞价策略)。     

One-Shot Public Mediated Talk

We show that any correlation device with rational coefficients can be generated by a mechanism, where each player sends a private message to a mediator who in turn makes a public deterministic announcement. It is then shown that the mechanism can be adapted also to situations with differential information, where the correlation device itself depends on the players' private messages that may vary with their realized types. All the mechanisms suggested are immunized against individual deviations. Therefore, by using them, players can implement any correlated or communication equilibrium.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Number: C72.     

Customer focus helps utility see the light

Florida Power & Light knew it had to transform the way it operated to remain competitive. The key was to understand changing customer needs and build those needs into its planning process.     

Economic impact of industry-sponsored clinical trials of pharmaceutical products in Austria

Abstract

Aims: Modern pharmaceutical product development is a long and complex process associated with significant investments by pharmaceutical companies. The innovative pharmaceutical industry accounts for the vast majority of expenditures in clinical trials of potential new pharmaceuticals and therefore generates economic activity within a country. The aim was to assess the far-reaching economic impact of industry-sponsored clinical-trials (ISCTs) of pharmaceutical products for the healthcare system and the national economy.

Materials and methods: The study approach was based on three analytical steps. First, a survey among 15 pharmaceutical companies in Austria was conducted to evaluate the annual number of ISCTs subdivided according to trial phase, therapeutic areas and associated employees. Second, the monetary value of treatments performed in ISCTs was calculated based on a sample of clinical-trial protocols. Finally, the macroeconomic impact, measured in terms of value-added and jobs created by the conducted ISCTs, was calculated using Input–Output analysis by applying an extended Leontief-model.

Results: The study demonstrated that €116.22 million spent in ISCTs generated a total value added of €144 million, €74 million direct, in 2018. Each year a medical treatment value of €100 million was financed through 463 ISCTs, with an average value of medical treatment of €37,068 per recruited patient. This represents a significant 0.3% of annual current health-expenditures. In summary, each Euro invested by the pharmaceutical industry in ISCTs generates €1.95 for the Austrian economy. ISCTs also created and secured employment in the extent of 2,021 full-time-equivalents, thus resulting in an employment multiplier of 1.66.

Conclusions: In conclusion, conducting clinical-trials by pharmaceutical industry—beside its importance in its own domain—results in tangible benefits and a positive macroeconomic impact that contribute to the sustainability of the Austrian healthcare system by complementing its limited resources. Furthermore, it is a non-negligible factor in locational and industrial policy.     

Health-related quality of life,work productivity and costs related to patients with inflammatory bowel disease in Austria

Abstract

Objective

Inflammatory-Bowel-Disease (IBD) is a lifelong illness with significant impact on health-related quality of life (HRQoL). The disease-burden causes work productivity impairment, such as sick-leave and restriction of leisure time activities. From a societal perspective, productivity loss often contributes significantly to the total costs. The aim of the study is to analyze the impact of disease-burden on work productivity, daily activities, and HRQoL.     

Consumer involvement in research using oral history: ‘What are people's experiences of health and well‐being in Halton?’

The purpose of this paper is to describe a qualitative oral history case study that involved consumers in research and followed a collaborative approach in the north‐west of England. This study had two aims: (1) to increase local voluntary groups research capacity through active involvement in research; and (2) to explore the community's historical perceptions of health and well‐being. The research team included four lay researchers from local voluntary groups supported by an academic researcher. Data collection used semi‐structured interviews based on oral history life stories that focused on health and well‐being. Thematic data analysis and mind maps were used to create a collective narrative. This paper will provide a brief synopsis of the findings from the main themes of health and well‐being, and reflect on the process of consumer involvement in research using oral history. Outputs have included dissemination at a local and national level, increased knowledge and confidence in the research process, and involvement in other related initiatives, such as Local Involvement Networks, partnership working with local libraries and collaboration with the regional archivist.