Improving the accuracy of outlook price forecasts

This study investigates the predictive ability of outlook hog price forecasts released by Iowa State University relative to alternative time‐series and market forecasts. Under root mean squared error (RMSE), the futures market forecast is most accurate at the first and second horizon but less accurate than Iowa outlook and the other forecast methods at the third horizon. In terms of the individual time‐series models, some vector autoregressions (VARs) and Bayesian VARs flexible in specification and estimation and model averaging tend to perform better than Iowa outlook forecasts. Evidence from encompassing tests, more stringent tests of forecast performance, indicates that many price forecasts can add incremental information to the Iowa forecast. Simple combinations of these models and outlook forecasts are able to reduce forecast errors by economically significant levels. Overall, the results indicate that it is possible to provide more accurate forecasts than Iowa outlook at every horizon.     

教育者增加价值的最优奖励策略:理论和来自中国的经验

在过去的三十年中 ,教育改革一直是政策制订者和社会科学家们争论的一个主题。最近的改革计划提出根据学生实际取得的成绩来奖励他们的教师。在本文中我们证明 ,建立在客观和主观绩效评价相结合基础上的激励合同能够减轻由不完美客观度量引起的激励扭曲 (比如应试教育 )。而且 ,当我们结合基于客观绩效评价的显性合同和基于主观绩效评价的隐性合同时 ,由此提供的联合激励随着客观绩效评价的方差递增。我们随后分析来自中国中学教师的评估体系 ,尤其是它对客观和主观绩效评价的同时使用。初步估计表明 ,教师薪酬确实与客观绩效评价和主观绩效评价正相关。我们发现 ,尽管受教育程度和性别并不直接影响薪酬 ,却和晋升的概率显著相关 :那些教育程度高、已婚、男性、工作经验丰富、一周内接触较少学生的教师更有可能是高级职称。     

Embedding environment and sustainability into corporate financial decision-making

The business case for sustainability can be built upon: (i) cost reduction from efficient resource utilisation, (ii) revenue enhancement, (iii) risk management, and (iv) intangible assets. However, executives often adopt a short-term perspective owing to executive compensation, investor pressure, and decision-making criteria tied to fixed financial reporting systems. We propose an integrated conceptual framework, which highlights how firms could embed environment and sustainability into their long-term financial decision-making framework. To give this goal structure, the firm could adopt: (i) longer-term executive compensation plans, (ii) longer-term financial reporting, and (iii) flexible financial decision-making models which embed intangibles.     

Reorganization of Intra‐ASEAN 5 Trade Flows: The ‘China Factor’*

There are claims that China's influence on ASEAN is direct in that she has encouraged more exports to flow into her huge markets and changed trade flows among member countries. Demand and supply are thus deemed to have become more China‐centered. This study therefore explores the plausibility of China as a ‘factor’ that influences bilateral intra‐ASEAN 5 trade flows through demand (exporting country) and supply (importing country). The results imply that China's integration in the region increases the size of the key ASEAN member economies export market. There is also no indication that import sourcing from China by ASEAN 5 countries reduces export expansion within the latter. The results accord with the fact that although China has become an important export destination and an import source for individual ASEAN 5 countries, this has not reduced intra‐ASEAN 5 trade.     

Outsourcing, unemployment and welfare policy

The paper investigates the consequences of outsourcing of labor intensive activities to low-wage economies. This trend challenges the two basic functions of the welfare state, redistribution and social insurance when private unemployment insurance markets are missing. The main results are: (i) outsourcing raises unemployment and labor income risk of unskilled workers; (ii) it increases inequality between high- and low-income groups; and (iii) the gains from outsourcing can be made Pareto improving by using a redistributive linear income tax if redistribution is initially not too large. We finally derive the welfare optimal redistribution and unemployment insurance policies.     

Advertising Evaluation and Measurement Error: The Case of Fluid Milk in Ontario

A key component of any attempt to assess the economic impacts of advertising is the ability to obtain accurate estimates of advertising elasticities or response coefficients. Accurate estimates of advertising response require accurate data. This study compares estimates of advertising elasticities based on two alternative data series. One data series represents actual expenditures on fluid milk advertising as measured by the entity conducting the advertising. The other data series represents estimated advertising expenditures as measured by a commercial tracking firm. Results based on a quarterly econometric model covering the period 1973-84 suggest data obtained from the tracking service produce severely downward-biased estimates of advertising response. The tracking data, moreover, tended to understate the actual level of advertising over the sample period and to misrepresent turning points. Un des facteurs déterminants permettant d'évaluer l'incidence économique de la publicité est la capacityé d'obtenir une estimation précise des élasticités de la publicité ou des coefficients de réaction. Pour estimer avec précision la réponse à la publicité, on a besoin de données précises également. La présente étude compare les estimations de l'élasticite de la publicité obtenues au moyen de deux séries de données. La premiére série portait sur les dépenses réelles de publicité pour le lait de consommation, telles que calculées par l'organisme chargé de la campagne. La seconde représentait les dépenses de publicité prévues par une entreprise d'étude de marché. Les résultats tirés de l'application du modéie économétrique trimestriel à la période de 1973 à 1984 indiquent que les données de l'en-treprise d'étude du marché entraînent une nette sous-estimation de la réaction a la publicité. EHes ont eu aussi tendance à sous-estimer le budget réel consacré à la publicité au cours de la période à l'étude et à mal signaler les points déterminants du cycle.     

A new integral for capacities

A new integral for capacities is introduced and characterized. It differs from the Choquet integral on non-convex capacities. The main feature of the new integral is concavity, which might be interpreted as uncertainty aversion. The integral is extended to fuzzy capacities, which assign subjective expected values to random variables (e.g., portfolios) and may assign subjective probability only to a partial set of events. An equivalence between the minimum over sets of additive capacities (not necessarily probability distributions) and the integral w.r.t. fuzzy capacities is demonstrated. The extension to fuzzy capacities enables one to calculate the integral also in cases where the information available is limited to a few events. I wish to thank Eran Hanany, David Schmeidler, Eilon Solan and especially Yaron Azrieli and the anonymous referee of Economic Theory for their helpful comments.     

THE IMPACT OF FEMALE WORK ON FAMILY INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN THE UNITED STATES: BLACK-WHITE DIFFERENTIALS*

Using data from the 1973 National Survey of Family Growth, the present study analyzes, for blacks and whites separately, the impact of female market activity on the inequality of the income distribution among households. The family life cycle is divided into three stages, according to the presence and age of children: (1) the interval between marriage and the birth of the first child, (2) the child-rearing interval, and (3) a final period which begins when all the children have reached school age. Using the coefficient of variation as an indicator of inequality, the empirical results show that in period 1, the contribution of white working wives has a large equalizing impact, while that of their black counterparts results in a slight increase in dispersion. In the child-rearing and post child-rearing stages, the labor supply of mothers decreases family income inequality by a small amount for both black and white households. A decomposition of the squared coefficient of variation of family income is presented to aid in the interpretation of these findings.     

The Transitioning of Marketing Practices from Segment to Customer-Centric Marketing in the African Business Context: Toward a Theoretical Research Framework

ABSTRACT

Although marketing has long been posited to be shifting from segment marketing to customer-centric marketing, there is little theoretical insight into the status of such transformation, especially in emerging African economies. Therefore, this paper develops an integrated theoretical framework for assessing (a) the extent to which firms in African economies use the segment marketing mix (4Ps) versus the customer-centric marketing mix (4As) as well as (b) their antecedents and performance outcomes. Propositions drawn from qualitative data and theoretical tenets in strategic management and in institutional theory are offered to guide systematic empirical research.     

Mature and Emerging Organic Markets: Modelling Consumer Attitude and Behaviour With Partial Least Square Approach

Although the organic food sector has been researched for around 20 years, still little is known about consumer behaviour when comparing developed and emerging organic markets. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the determinants of organic food consumption in a mature (Germany) and an emerging (Chile) organic market using a model based on the theory of planned behaviour and partial least squares for parameters estimation. The reported results have implications for decision makers in both countries. The use of altruistic arguments in organic food marketing is a key aspect to increase organic food demand in both countries. However, egoistic motives might also gain importance in Chile, as they already have in Germany. In both countries, the barriers for organic food consumption have to be addressed with great attention—a lack of information and availability, especially in Chile, and scepticism about organic food in Germany.