Computerized Delphi: An Application to Quota Value Determination in the Quebec Dairy Industry

In an effort to develop a substitute for the consensus panel, a Delphi experiment was conducted based on five simulated benchmark dairy farms in Quebec and communicated to an expert farmer panel by means of a microcomputer model. Farmers were asked to make decisions about quota purchase or sale at alternative quota prices given the detailed data base in the computer model. The results in terms of the convergence analysis, analysis of variance, estimation of fluid quota demand, supply and the equilibrium price are realistic. The method appears to be free from the danger of possible manipulation by individual panelists and hence a good way of generating unbiased information.
Pour essayer de développer un substitut pour le panneau à majorité simple, une expérience "Delphi" a été conduite à partir des données fournies par une simulation de cinq fermes laitierès typiques et communiquée à un panneau agricole au moyen d'un modéle micro-ordinateur. On a demandé aux fermiers de faire des décisions sur l'achat ou la vente d'un contingent à des prix alternatifs pour le contingent étant donnée la base detaillée des données contenue dans le modèle d'ordinateur. Les résultats quant à l'analyse par convergence, l'analyse des variations, l'évaluation de la demande des contingents de fluide, l'offre et l'équilibre des prix sont réalistes. La méthode semble être libre du danger de manipulation possible par un individu dans les panneaux et en conséquence est un bon moyen de produire de l'information objective.     

Technical efficiency of high technology medicine

Intensive care units (ICUs) are classic examples of high technology medicine. The ICU has become an essential step in the clinical management of patients passing through a phase of critical illness, However, the costs are extremely h9gh (1% of GNP in the USA), whereas it has not ben adeqyately demonstrated that routine admission to intensive care is associated with an increase in survival rate and a decrease in morbidity. Consequently, intensive care is a logical arena in which to encourage more efficient use. The paper focuses on determinates of the technical efficiency of the ICU. Technical efficiency can only be ensured when the ICU is conceived as a responsibility centre where inputs, throughputs and outputs are measured. The reaponsbility centre in characterized by management control, which is dependent on reliable information regarding incentives and constraints of ICU performance. On the basis of the medical and economic literature, conjectures are made on determinants of ICU performance. In addition, some results are presented of a feasibility study commissional by the Netherlands Ministry of Health.     

Does IFRS 10 on Consolidated Financial Statements Abandon Accepted Economic Principles?

The 2007 global financial crisis revealed a deficiency in the financial reporting of off‐balance‐sheet vehicles. To better reflect risks associated with such items, International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 10 provided new principles for determining an investor's control of an investee for the purpose of preparing consolidated financial statements. We show that an applicative example appearing under the new guidelines contradicts the conclusion drawn from widely accepted power indices: the Shapley‐Shubik value and the Banzhaf index. Our study adds to the literature aiming to incorporate methodological economic thought into accounting principles.     

Early-Life Circumstances Predict Measures of Trust among Adults: Evidence from Hunger Episodes in Post-War Germany

Can a major shock in childhood permanently shape trust? We consider a hunger episode in Germany after World War II, and we construct a measure of hunger exposure from official data on caloric rations set monthly by the occupying forces, providing regional and temporal variations. We correlate hunger exposure with measures of trust using data from a nationally representative sample of the German population. We show that individuals exposed to low caloric rations in childhood have significantly lower levels of trust as adults. This finding highlights that early-life experiences can have long-term effects in domains other than health, where such effects are well documented.     

Transparency and incentives among peers

This article studies the effect of transparency among peers on the principal's cost of providing incentives. Using directed graphs to represent peer information, we show that under complementarity the cost of providing incentives is decreasing with the level of transparency within the organization. We also investigate the role of the architecture of the information in boosting incentives. In arguing that substitution impedes the benefits of transparency, we will compare function‐based teams with process‐based teams, showing that the latter are more effective in providing incentives.     

Combinatorial agency

We study a combinatorial variant of the classical principal-agent model. In our setting a principal wishes to incentivize a team of strategic agents to exert costly effort on his behalf. Agents? actions are hidden and the principal observes only the outcome of the team, which depends stochastically on the complex combinations of the efforts by the agents. The principal seeks the mechanism that maximizes the principal?s net revenue given an equilibrium behavior of the agents. We investigate the structure of the optimal mechanism for various production technologies as the principal?s value from the project varies. In doing so we quantify the gap between the first-best and second-best solutions. Our results highlight the qualitative and quantitative differences between production technologies that exhibit complementarities and substitutabilities between the agents? actions. In comparing the first best with the second best we highlight the role of effort monitoring by the principal. As we shall see, the benefit from monitoring crucially depends on the underlying technology, with the two polar cases being perfect substitution and perfect complementarity.     

Agricultural land use in the era of climate change: The challenge of finding ‘Fit for Purpose’ data

The paper examines drivers of change in agricultural land use in order to identify data requirements and assess data suitability. In order to assess the fitness for purpose of available data, the paper provides an overview of the sources of data for agriculture and land use in the UK, in both a contemporary and historical context. It provides a brief assessment of the state of scientific knowledge on the analysis of land use change, combined with a consideration of some of the possible advances promised by the new land use science.