Meaningful Measures: Indicators on Progress, Progress on Indicators

This article reviews the international debate on statistical indicators. It describes historical backgrounds, as well as the present chaotic situation. It discusses what statistical indicators are and what they are for, as well as criteria for the choice of indicators, designed to monitor the achievement of economic, social, demographic, environmental and other goals set by United Nations conferences. Some suggestions for future work are made.     

Women and Minorities in Introductory Economics Textbooks: 1974 to 1984

The authors conducted a painstaking review of widely used economics textbooks to determine if or how issues relating to race and gender are treated. In doing so, the authors also shed light on the nature of the treatment of these issues.     

Cash-Flow Valuation and Value at Risk

The cash-flow valuation method (CFVM) has been developed in Canada for the valuation of insurance company annuity products. Its range of application is expected to be extended shortly to the valuation of most other life insurance company products. The CFVM is based on the use of “best-guess” assumptions, supplemented by specific provisions for adverse deviations. In this paper, special attention is paid to the calculation of the provision for adverse deviations with respect to the interest rate risk. We show that the determination of this provision is the analog for life insurance and annuity policy liabilities of the calculation by banks of Value at Risk (VaR) with respect to portfolios of securities held for trading.     

Federal and Foreign Trade Deficits and the Future of the U.S. Economy

The author traces the course of the economy during the past few years, raising questions about its future course. Unless drastic (and seemingly unlikely) actions are taken, Due predicts the resumption of inflation, a depression, or both.     

Book review

Tourism Marketing. By Salah Wahab, Jack Crampon, and L. Rothfield. London, England: Tourism International, 1976. 273 pp. U.S. $16.00

Tourism in the Bahamas and Bermuda: Two Case Studies. By Brian H. Archer. Bangor, Wales: University of Wales Press, 1977. Pp. ix, 87. £3.25

Park Planning Handbook: Fundamentals of Physical Planning for Parks and Recreation Areas. By Monty L. Christiansen. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1977. Pp. xiv, 413. Hardcover: $18.95

Educating for Leisure‐Centered Living. By Charles K. Bright‐bill and Tony A. Mobley. (2nd Edition—Revised). New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1977. Pp. viii, 128. Paperback: $4.95

Private and Commercial Recreation: A Text and Reference. By Arlin F. Epperson. New York: John Wiley & Sons Publishing Company, Inc., 1977. Pp. 385. Hardcover: $15.95

The Economic Impact of Parks. A report prepared for the Federal/Provincial Parks Conference. By the Canadian Outdoor Recreation Research Committee. Toronto: Ontario Research Council on Leisure, 1975. Pp. 107. $4.50

A Model for Planning and Managing National Parks. By Laurence Prosser. Center of Leisure Studies, University of Oregon, 1977. Pp. 456. $25.00

Delivery of Community Leisure Services: An Holistic Approach. By James F. Murphy and Dennis R. Howard. Philadelphia: Lea & Febiger, 1977. Pp. vii, 219. Paperback: $9.75

Recreation Leadership. 3rd edition. By Maryhelen Vannier. Philadelphia: Lea & Febiger, 1977. Pp. 387. Hardcover: $12.50

Leisure: An Introduction. Edited by Hilmi Ibrahim and Fred Martin. Los Alamitos: Hwong Publishing Company, 1977. Pp. 360

Outdoor Recreation in America: Trends, Problems and Opportunities. 3rd edition. By Clayne R. Jensen. Minneapolis: Burgess Publishing Company, 1977. Pp. 269. Hardcover: $12.95

A Research Study into Provision for Recreation in the Highlands and Islands: Phase 1—Areas Affected by Oil‐Related Development. Research Reports 22, 23, and 31. Tourism and Recreation Research Unit, University of Edinburgh, Scotland, 1976 and 1977. Pp. 339, 411, and 145.

Research Study into Provision for Recreation in the Highlands and Islands: Phase 2—Regional Perspective: A Commentary by J. A. Long, J. T. Coppock, and B. S. Duffield. Research Report 37. Tourism and Recreation Research Unit, University of Edinburgh, Scotland, 1978. 110 pp.

The Environmental Impact of Outdoor Recreation. By Geoffrey Wall and Cynthia Wright. Waterloo, Ontario, Canada: Department of Geography Publication Series, Faculty of Environmental Studies. 1977, 69 pp. $5.00.

Avocational Counseling Manual—A Complete Guide to Leisure Guidance. By Robert Overs, Sharon Taylor, and Catherine Adkins. Washington, D.C.: Hawkins and Associates, Inc., 1977, 203 pp.

Leisure and Recreation: Introduction and Overview. By Clayne R. Jensen. Philadelphia: Lea & Febiger, 1977, 295 pp. Paperback $13.50.

The Joy of Sport. By Michael Novak. New York: Basic Books, 1976. Pp. 358. $10.95     

Property–Liability Insurer Reserve Error: Motive,Manipulation, or Mistake

We use two reserve error definitions found in the literature to investigate the joint impact of previously studied incentives on the magnitude of reserve error. We find many prior conclusions are dependent upon the restricted setting in which the hypotheses are tested and on the definition of the reserve error. We find strong evidence that financially weak insurers underreserve to a greater extent than other insurers. However, our evidence casts doubt on the conclusion that insurers manipulate reserves to avoid solvency monitoring. We also find insurers increase reserves for tax purposes and to reduce the impact of regulatory rate suppression.     

A Regime-Switching Model of Long-Term Stock Returns

Abstract

In this paper I first define the regime-switching lognormal model. Monthly data from the Standard and Poor’s 500 and the Toronto Stock Exchange 300 indices are used to fit the model parameters, using maximum likelihood estimation. The fit of the regime-switching model to the data is compared with other common econometric models, including the generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic model. The distribution function of the regime-switching model is derived. Prices of European options using the regime-switching model are derived and implied volatilities explored. Finally, an example of the application of the model to maturity guarantees under equity-linked insurance is presented. Equations for quantile and conditional tail expectation (Tail-VaR) risk measures are derived, and a numerical example compares the regime-switching lognormal model results with those using the more traditional lognormal stock return model.     

A productivity study of the Norwegian building industry

Slow productivity growth in the building and construction industry is often put forward as the cause of rising building costs. In view of the importance of the building sector in the national economy, factual empirical knowledge is hard to come by. The few studies found are usually carried out on a sectoral level and based on time-series data. However, to come to grips with the real causes for slow productivity growth, one has to analyze at the microlevel of actual decision making. Our study is based on establishment data for 1986. The method of analysis is the deterministic frontier approach. The efficiency distributions show large variations with average structural efficiency about 20 percent. Thus, there is significant scope for productivity improvement if average performance can catch up with best practice.The refereeing process of this article was handled through T.G. Cowing.