Risks and threats to civilization, humankind, and the earth

This paper is a brief look at a wide range of risks that are said to present great threats to humankind. It was stimulated by several interacting factors. First, too many books and articles about astrophysical catastrophes, in the scientific and semi-scientific press, give relatively little attention to their timeframe or the measures to anticipate and prepare for them. Second, and most important, is that the overblown effects of 9/11 have distorted the United States of America's perspective and agenda on catastrophes. The result is that billions of dollars have been wasted and attention turned away from threats that could be truly catastrophic for the United States and, in many cases, for the rest of the world. Third, are books that have become popular by raising the threat that what will happen to us will be similar to what happened to earlier societies such as the Maya and the Easter Islanders. Most notably among these is Jared Diamond's Collapse [Jared Diamond, Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed, Penguin Group, 2005]. The failure in these doomsday arguments is to overlook the greater sophistication, knowledge, awareness, monitoring and preparation currently in the United States and in other parts of the globe. The institutional structure and scientific knowledge today would either prevent or deal with the kind of socio-economic decline anticipated by the “collapse” arguments. In contrast several geophysical and celestial risks do imply global catastrophe. The value of this paper is as broad background to the specific scenario papers that follow. While it leans heavily on the work of others, it offers three new features for the analysis of any extreme risk. First is a scale of devastation, based on deaths. Second is a comprehensive time frame—now to the end of the Earth. Third is an outline of general questions that must be addressed for any risk, however large or small, if it is to provide insight into policy choices and promote systemic thinking.     

The effect of earnings quality and country-level institutions on the value relevance of earnings

This study investigates the relationship between the value relevance of earnings and earnings quality across countries. We find that there is a stronger relationship between earnings quality and the value relevance of earnings in countries with high investor protection than in countries with weak investor protection. We also find that the association between the value relevance of earnings and earnings quality is higher when a country’s information environment is less opaque. Overall, our study documents evidence on international differences in the ability of stock prices to capture useful accounting information, consistent with the notion that the returns-earnings association reflects not only the quality of accounting earnings but also the informativeness of stock prices.     

Bias in estimates of discrimination and default in mortgage lending: The effects of simultaneity and self-selection

The common practices of estimating single-equation models of mortgage rejection to test for discrimination in mortgage markets or single-equation ex ante mortgage default equations to validate underwriting criteria produce biased and inconsistent parameter estimates. This is due to problems of simultaneous equations bias which arise because, in a world of imperfect information, mortgage terms are not exogenous to the rejection or default decision. In addition, mortgage default estimates are also subject to selection bias. Monte Carlo experiments are used to study the nature and extent of likely bias in single-equation estimation results. We find that rejection equation estimates indicate discrimination when none exists and that estimated coefficients of mortgage terms, such as the loan-to-value ratio, are also subject to significant bias in both rejection and default equations.     

Entrepreneurial Hustle: Navigating Uncertainty and Enrolling Venture Stakeholders through Urgent and Unorthodox Action

Entrepreneurs need to act under conditions of uncertainty and resource constraints to bring new, often-unrecognizable products to market and convince an unknown set of stakeholders to support their endeavours. The type of action entrepreneurs take to navigate uncertain entrepreneurial contexts is underspecified. We analysed 48 interviews with entrepreneurs to inductively identify an action-oriented construct we labelled as entrepreneurial hustle – an entrepreneur’s urgent, unorthodox actions that are intended to be useful in addressing immediate challenges and opportunities under conditions of uncertainty. In a follow-up study, we use an experimental vignette approach to assess the impact of an entrepreneur’s hustle on venture stakeholders. Findings suggest that entrepreneurial hustle positively influences stakeholder perceptions of the entrepreneur’s leadership effectiveness and a venture’s legitimacy, mediated by perceptions of the entrepreneur’s ability-based trustworthiness. We conclude that entrepreneurial hustle is a fundamental behaviour that enables entrepreneurs to enrol new venture stakeholders and lead their entrepreneurial efforts.     

Immigration: then,now, and in the future

The author examines recent changes in immigration flows to the United States. Consideration is given to the increase in Caribbean, Chinese, Indian, and Muslim immigration, which he attributes to today's lower costs of air travel. The negative impact of the ability to return home easily and cheaply on migrants' desire to fully acculturate into U.S. society is noted. Mention is made of the need for new international migration policies to meet the needs of guest workers and consultants.     

The real exchange rate,regime changes and volatility shifts

We make use of a data-set with both long span and high frequency to test for purchasing power parity (PPP) while allowing for a structural shift in the volatility of the Mexico–US bilateral real exchange rate (RER). The Kim, Leybourne and Newbold (2002) unit root test, robust to changes in the innovation variance, indicates mean stationarity of the monthly RER, and hence evidence of PPP, for the full sample, 1930–2012, and various subsamples. The persistence of deviations of the real rate from its PPP level as measured by half-lives ranges from 1.37 to 2.41 years.     

Resource based relative value scale: a new challenge and opportunity for health care cost management

Beginning in 1992, the use of resource based relative value scale (RBRVS) will greatly change the way physicians are reimbursed for services to Medicare patients. This new system will also have implications for trust funds and corporate providers of health care benefits.     

Do the Merits Matter More? The Impact of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act

This article examines the effect of the Private Securities LitigationReform Act of 1995 (PSLRA) on stockholder lawsuits. We explorethe role of restatements, earnings forecasts, and insider tradingin the filing and resolution of lawsuits for a sample of hightechnology firms. Consistent with our predictions, there isa post-PSLRA shift away from litigation based on forward-lookingearnings disclosures. Conversely, there is a significantly greatercorrelation between litigation and both earnings restatementsand abnormal insider selling after the PSLRA. Finally, we finda post-PSLRA increase in the likelihood of settlement for casesinvolving earnings restatements.