Migrants’ Remittances and Financial Development: Macro‐ and Micro‐Level Evidence of a Perverse Relationship

Financial development is commonly identified as an important condition for fostering investment and economic growth. It is also believed that migrants’ remittances stimulate financial development in the receiving economy, contributing indirectly to economic growth. We explore the relationship between remittances and financial development using macro‐ and micro‐level data. From cross‐country panel data, we find evidence of a negative relationship between remittances and financial deepening in developing countries. Using household survey data from a study of migrants’ remittances in two CIS countries, Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan, we also investigate the relationship between remittances, financial intermediation and ‘financial literacy’ among remittance‐receiving households. While we find some evidence of a positive, albeit weak, relationship for Kyrgyzstan, in Azerbaijan, the relatively more financially developed economy, we uncover a strong perverse relationship. Remittances appear to deter bank intermediation and use of formal banking services. Possible reasons are explored and areas for further investigation identified.     

A Bayesian Approach to Improve Estimate at Completion in Earned Value Management

Forecasting represents a core project management process. Estimates at completion in terms of cost and schedule provide essential data and advice to the project team in order to lead and control the project and implement suitable corrective measures. In order to improve the forecasting process, a Bayesian model has been developed within the earned value management framework aiming to calculate a confidence interval for the estimates of both cost and schedule at the completion of the project. The model is based on the integration of data records and qualitative knowledge provided by experts. The model has been tested in an oil and gas project.     

The effect of weather on consumer spending

There has been a great deal of anecdotal evidence to suggest that weather affects consumer decision making. In this paper, we provide empirical evidence to explain how the weather affects consumer spending and we detail the psychological mechanism that underlies this phenomenon. Specifically, we propose that the effect of weather – and, in particular, sunlight – on consumer spending is mediated by negative affect. That is, as exposure to sunlight increases, negative affect decreases and consumer spending tends to increase. We find strong support for this prediction across a series of three mixed methods studies in both the lab and the field.     

When does leverage hurt productivity growth? A firm-level analysis

In the wake of the global financial crisis, several macroeconomic contributions have highlighted the risks of excessive credit expansion. In particular, too much finance can have a negative impact on growth. We examine the microeconomic foundations of this argument, positing a non-monotonic relationship between leverage and firm-level productivity growth in the spirit of the trade-off theory of capital structure. A threshold regression model estimated on a sample of Central and Eastern European countries confirms that TFP growth increases with leverage until the latter reaches a critical threshold beyond which leverage lowers TFP growth. This estimate can provide guidance to firms and policy makers on identifying “excessive” leverage. We find similar non-monotonic relationships between leverage and proxies for firm value. Our results are a first step in bridging the gap between the literature on optimal capital structure and the wider macro literature on the finance-growth nexus.     

Ascending auctions for multiple objects: the case for the Japanese design

Summary. We consider two ascending auctions for multiple objects, namely, an English and a Japanese auction, and derive a perfect Bayesian equilibrium of the Japanese auction by exploiting its strategic equivalence with the survival auction, which consists of a finite sequence of sealed-bid auctions. Thus an equilibrium of a continuous time game is derived by means of backward induction in finitely many steps. We then show that all equilibria of the Japanese auction induce equilibria of the English auction, but that many collusive or signaling equilibria of the English auction do not have a counterpart in the Japanese auction.Received: 2 September 2004, Revised: 20 April 2005, JEL Classification Numbers: C72, D44.Fabrizio Germano: Correspondence toWe are indebted to Philippe Jehiel for useful discussions and to Nicolas Vieille for suggestions in the proof of Proposition 2; we also thank seminar audiences in Athens, Basel, Beer-Sheva, Berlin, Brussels, Cambridge, Edinburgh, Exeter, Lausanne, Lisbon, London, Louvain-la-Neuve, Namur and Tel Aviv. Germano acknowledges financial support from Euopean Commission, TMR Network Grant ERBFMRXCT0055, “Cooperation and Information” as well from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology, Grants SEC2001-0792, SEJ2004-06319, and in form of a Ramon y Cajal Fellowship. Lovo is member of GREGHEC, unité CNRS, FRE-2810. The support of the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) is also gratefully acknowledged. The work was part of the programme of the ESRC Research for Economic Learning and Social Evolution.     

The Geographical Dimension of the Development Effects of Natural Resources

We study the contribution of natural resource intensity to long-term development along different dimensions: per-capita income, institutional quality, and education. We allow natural resources to affect these dimensions differently in different regions of the world. The evidence suggests that natural resources are generally a positive driver of development, but in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) their contribution is almost negligible, if not even negative. We explain these cross-regional differences with the fact that in SSA more than anywhere else large resource endowments are combined with a particularly bad disease environment. Some historical evidence and formal econometric results support this hypothesis.     

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Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Su un problema di teoria dell'utilità d'interesse in campo assicurativo

Si studia il problema della quota ottima di rischio che un individuo ha convenienza ad assumere, o ad assicurare, in relazione alla propria funzione di utilità; con particolare riguardo al caso in cui tale utilità sia rappresentata da una funzione esponenziale.The optimal risk fraction to be assumed by an individual acting following the expected utility principle is studied.Special attention is devoted to the case of exponential utility function.