Temporal mixture ensemble models for probabilistic forecasting of intraday cryptocurrency volume

Decisions in Economics and Finance - We study the problem of the intraday short-term volume forecasting in cryptocurrency multi-markets. The predictions are built by using transaction and order...     

Opting Out,Collective Contracts and Labour Flexibility: Firm-Level Evidence for The Italian Case

This article analyses the role of deviations from higher level collective agreements adopted in firm-level bargaining to regain higher labour mobility, net positive employment effects and a resurgence of labour productivity. Using Italian firm-level data, after performing preliminary pooled ordinary least squares and fixed effects estimates, we adopt a difference-in-difference approach combined with a propensity score matching. All the estimations show that opting out clauses notably increases both hiring and separations, but without significant variations in terms of net employment. In addition, no significant labour productivity gains are obtained. The only significant change concerns the increase in the share of temporary workers.     

International Development Strategies of Luxury-goods Players in China

The aim of this paper is to study and analyse the intemationalisation strategies chosen by the main luxury-goods players in the Chinese market, demonstrating the business intemationalisation processes. The research questions are： ttow luxury companies have developed distribution strategies in the Chinese markets？ What are the main formats of distribution for the Chinese markets？ Are there any differences in the internationalization process between the main players of the luxury markets and the smaller ones？ The methodology is based on the analysis on multiple-case ~.nalysis on a sample of luxury-goods companies and identifies and compares the different strategies used by the players analysed. The research process starts from identifying and selecting the most well-known companies operating in the luxury branded sector, which have established a presence in the Chinese market with their own brand, collecting secondary data for the selected companies （website, corporate profile, articles on websites and in trade magazines and interviews with the management）, analysing the data collected and interpreting the main results to have emerged from the research. The main findings and conclusions are that the route to development in the Chinese market taken by the players in the luxury-goods sector, historically undertaken by delocalising production operations, has in recent years begun to accelerate with new forms in play, principally linked to distribution. The Chinese market tbr luxury brands is ever more an outlet market rather than a production hub. The ability to create brand awareness will become a key factor for successful consolidation of the competitive position in this market, an operation that can only be performed through distribution. Moreover, Chinese high-end consumers are becoming ever more demanding, seeking out an ever more sophisticated shopping experience. Just as happening in other markets, opening directly operated stores is a strategic choice for reaching and convincing end-consumers, sinc     

Customers’ judgments and misjudgments of corporate responsibility communication: A cross‐country investigation of the effects on confidence and trust within the banking sector

Customers’ judgment of corporate responsibility (CR) communication and the effect on confidence and trust as interlinked paradigms are intriguing areas of investigation from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. This research aims to clarify the nature of effective CR communication toward customers by identifying situations of over‐ and undercommunication of CR that might cause misjudgments and therefore lower the level of confidence among customers. The study also provides insights to better explain the link between confidence and trust related to customers’ perceptions of CR communication and compares different judgments and misjudgments regarding the banking industries in Italy and the United Kingdom. The study adopts real and fictitious bank case studies to conduct focus groups investigations of 160 millennial customers’ perceptions of CR communication and how it affects their level of confidence. The findings highlight the role of trust in making independent judgments on CR communications. Some similarities and slight differences in the impact of CR communication on confidence emerge between the countries and greatly depend on the customers’ level of trust in real banks and the influence of the industry effect characterizing the banking sector. This study provides fertile ground for future research into the implementation of a more effective and balanced CR communication strategy to increase customers’ confidence and into the understanding of which communication drivers, apparently independent of CR, affect trust in the long term.     

When legacy carriers converge with low-cost carriers: Exploring the fusion of European airline business models through a case-based analysis

The paper makes uses of cognitive mappings developed from personal interviews with a number of European airline executives to examine the differences in managerial attitudes of low-cost and transitional carriers. In particular it explores the extent to which there is a convergence of views regarding the ways various airline models will develop in the future.     

Inequality and growth: the perverse relation between the productive and the non-productive assets of the economy

The explosion generated by the global financial crisis in 2008 and its transmission to the real economies have been interpreted as calling for new kinds of regulation of the banking and the financial systems that would have allowed re-establishing a virtuous relation between the real and the financial sectors of the economy. In this paper we maintain a different view, that the financial crisis and the ensuing real crisis have roots in the strong increase in income inequality that has been taking place in the Western world in the last thirty years or so. This has created an all around aggregate demand deficiency crisis that has strongly reduced prospects and opportunities for investments in productive capacities and shifted resources toward other uses, thus feeding a perverse relation between the productive and the non-productive assets of the economy. In this context the way out of the crisis is re-establishing the right distributive conditions, which cannot be obtained by a policy aimed at relieving the weight of private or public debts but calls for a redistribution through taxes on the incomes of non-productive sectors, a fine tuning that should prevent excessive taxations transforming positive into negative effects.     

Stagflationary Effects of Stabilization Programs in Reforming Socialist Countries: Enterprise-Side and Household-Side Factors

Dismantling subsidies could give rise to serious macroeconomicdifficulties in the short run. This article explores a viewbased on the enterprise sector as a central source and mainchannel of the stagflation phenomenon, using as an example thestagflation that followed the 1990 stabilization program inPoland. The stagflation phenomenon is linked to features ofthe financial market that are somewhat peculiar to reformingsocialist economies: the weak credit links between householdsand enterprises, and the existence of large interenterprisedebt. The policy implications of the enterprise-side view includemore explicit consideration of initial conditions in the creditmarket, implementation of privatization schemes, and the developmentof a domestic banking system.     

Weathering the Storm: The Impact of the East Asian Crisis on Farm Households in Indonesia and Thailand

This article assesses the impact of the East Asian financialcrisis on farm households in two of the region's most affectedcountries. Indonesia and Thailand, using detailed household-levelsurvey data collected before and after the crisis began. Althoughthe nature of the shocks in the two countries were similar,the impact on farmers' income (particularly on distribution)was quite different. In Thailand, poor farmers bore the bruntof the crisis, in part because of their greater reliance onthe urban economy, than did poor farmers in Indonesia. Urban-rurallinks are much weaker in Indonesia. Farmers in both countries,particularly those specializing in export crops, benefited fromthe currency devaluation. Although there is some evidence thatthe productivity of the smallest landholders declined over theperiod in question, it is difficult to attribute this directlyto the financial crisis. At least in Thailand, a rural creditcrunch does not seem to have materialized.      

Stay in or get out the Janus? The maintenance of multiplex relationships between buyers and sellers

Buyers and sellers interact in different ways. They conduct economic transactions but often also engage in social exchanges; they compete to appropriate the value generated throughout the pipeline but often also collaborate in mutual value creation. Increasingly, they show patterns of repeated interaction rather than engaging in single transactions.Most past research investigated interaction modalities within buyer-seller relationships through an ‘or-or’ lens, and considered one modality as prevailing within the relationship at a given moment.In this study, we will develop an ‘and-and’ logic, opening the mainstream view of relationship maintenance to social theories on the structure of economic action and the strategy view of coopetition. We will further examine the implications of dualities and complementarities within buyer-seller relationships in respect of their maintenance over time.     

The role of volume in order book dynamics: a multivariate Hawkes process analysis

We show that multivariate Hawkes processes coupled with the nonparametric estimation procedure first proposed in Bacry and Muzy [IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory, 2016, 62, 2184–2202] can be successfully used to study complex interactions between the time of arrival of orders and their size observed in a limit order book market. We apply this methodology to high-frequency order book data of futures traded at EUREX. Specifically, we demonstrate how this approach is amenable not only to analyse interplay between different order types (market orders, limit orders, cancellations) but also to include other relevant quantities, such as the order size, into the analysis, showing also that simple models assuming the independence between volume and time are not suitable to describe the data.