Modelling systemic price cojumps with Hawkes factor models

Instabilities in the price dynamics of a large number of financial assets are a clear sign of systemic events. By investigating portfolios of highly liquid stocks, we find that there are a large number of high-frequency cojumps. We show that the dynamics of these jumps is described neither by a multivariate Poisson nor by a multivariate Hawkes model. We introduce a Hawkes one-factor model which is able to capture simultaneously the time clustering of jumps and the high synchronization of jumps across assets.     

LeNS China:A Chinese learning network on sustainability for the development and diffusion of teaching materials and tools on design for sustainability

It is a shared opinion that sustainable development requires a system discontinuity, meaning that radical changes in the way we produce and consume are needed. Within this framework there is an emerging understanding that an important contribution to this change can be directly linked to decisions taken in the design phase of products, services and systems. Design schools have therefore to be able to provide design students with a broad knowledge and effective Design for Sustainability tools, in order to enable a new generation of designers in playing an active role in re-orienting our consumption and production patterns. This paper presents the intermediate results of the LeNS China, the Learning Network on Sustainability of Chinese design Higher Education Institutions aiming at curricula development on Design for Sustainability. The project is a regeneration of the LeNS Asian-European multi-polar network project financed by the European Commission. LeNS China is taking in consideration the local needs, interests and opportunities could represent a significant enabling platform capable to sensitise, support and empower a new generation of Chinese design educators, designers and entrepreneurs to reach design practice throughout an open collaborative learning approach. The paper will firstly introduce the LeNS project and its ethos, and then the LeNS China network will be described in terms of the state of the art of design for sustainability and its education in China, the scope and the objective, the results achieved so far and the next steps.     

On Combining Partial and Incompatible Information in E-negotiation and E-arbitration

The complexity of the problems to be addressed in an e-democracy framework and the variety of involved stakeholders, with different backgrounds, views and access to information sources, lead us to consider the case in which an e-negotiation should be performed among subjects who have partial, sometimes incompatible, information and can hardly gather to discuss issues together, under the supervision of a facilitator. We propose a statistical method which addresses the issue of partial and incompatible information, merging it and then using it to get a final decision, possibly in an automatic way, through processes of e-negotiation and e-arbitration.      

Growth with Unused Capacity and Endogenous Capital Depreciation

The paper contributes to the debate on growth and distribution in a non‐mainstream perspective. It looks at the role that capacity utilization plays in the process of growth under the hypothesis that the rate of capital depreciation is a function of the degree of capacity utilization. Our hypothesis implies results partly different from those obtained by other models in which capacity utilization plays a key role. In particular, a varying rate of depreciation affects the conditions under which distributional changes in favor of wages affect the rate of growth positively.     

The role of social identification and hedonism in affecting tourist re-patronizing behaviours: The case of an Italian festival

Since the 1990s Europe and other continents have been organising a significantly larger number of festivals with the objective of stimulating tourism and exploiting potential economic opportunities. The prominence of these events has led to intense competition between festivals in attracting visitors and it has become important to analyse factors which might influence attendees’ retention. Drawing on existing literature on retail and service sectors, this study aims to identify the role played by emotions, hedonism, satisfaction, and social identification in mediating the effects of environmental factors on attendees’ re-patronizing intention. This study includes an on-site survey of 449 visitors attending an Italian festival gaining in popularity, and analyses data using a structural equations model. Results suggest that hedonism and social identification are key-facilitators between environmental cues and attendees’ re-patronizing intention.     

Revisiting the Effects of Remittances on Bank Credit: A Macro Perspective

We investigate the effect of remittances on bank credit in developing countries. Understanding this link is important in view of the growing relevance of remittances as a source of external finance and of the beneficial impact that financial intermediation is likely to have on economic growth. Our contribution is twofold. First, we present a theoretical model of bank credit in a hypothetical remittances‐receiving country where: (1) the banking sector is imperfectly competitive; and (2) bank rates change infrequently because of the presence of adjustment costs. We show that in equilibrium, the relationship between remittances and bank‐credit is likely to be non‐linear. Second, we look at the evidence using a panel data set for a large group of developing and emerging economies over the period 1970–2009. We find that at initially low levels of remittances, an increase in remittances reduces the volume of credit extended by banks. However, at sufficiently high levels of remittances, the effect becomes positive. The turning point of the relationship occurs at a level of remittances of about 2.5% of GDP, which would imply that approximately 50% of our sample lies to each side of this threshold.     

The distributive effects of institutional quality when government stability is endogenous

Redistribution is the strategic response of the incumbent to a decrease in its survival probability resulting from weak institutions and growing income inequalities. The purpose of the paper is to test empirically the validity of this conjecture. System and single equation estimations provide a consistent picture: (i) bad institutions increase income inequality, while more redistribution reduces income inequality; (ii) greater inequality increases the probability of government termination; and (iii) a higher probability of termination increases the extent of redistribution. Overall, there is strong evidence in support of the proposed conjecture.     

Evaluating innovation and labour market relationships: the case of Italy

In this paper the link between labour market flexibility andinnovation is analysed paying particular attention to the differenttechnological regimes of economic activities and the differentgeographical areas of the Italian economy. A dynamic panel dataspecification is used to assess the endogenous relationshipbetween patents, included as a proxy for innovation, and jobturnover and wages, which represent labour market indicators.Our results show that higher job turnover only has a significantand negative impact on patent activities in regional sectorsof Northern Italy, while blue and white collar wages have beengenerally found to have a positive and significant impact oninnovation.     

Growth and Crisis in Transition: A Comparative Perspective

The paper provides an empirical analysis of the growth performance of transition countries in a comparative perspective, separating episodes of crises from those of growth. Performance is measured by the output response following recessions, by the capacity to rebound, as well as the depth and length of the crisis rather than average rates of growth that aggregate periods of recessions and periods of growth. Results highlight that the post‐recession performance in Central and Eastern Europe resembles that of emerging and developing countries in the aftermath of banking and financial crises, often following significant liberalizations. In contrast, the post‐crisis performance of CIS countries resembles the output response observed during episodes of civil wars, and remains significantly different from the normal response of an average market country. Moreover, performance depends on economic reforms and especially on the complementarities among different reforms.