Niedrige Zinsen — gesamtwirtschaftliche Ursachen und Folgen

Due to the financial crises from 2008 to 2012, unconventional monetary policy caused an environment of record low interest rates around the world. Maintaining the low interest rate policy might be reasonable for the ECB in the short run in order to fight the fragmentation of the financial market and the risk of defl ation in the Eurozone. Some authors argue that permanently low interest rates lead to wrong incentives in the financial market for debtors and creditors alike. They fear potential risks for fiscal policy and financial stability in Germany and recommend macroprudential measures beyond the Basel III framework and a beginning exit of the ECB from its unconventional monetary policy. Others warn against overburdening monetary policy. They find rather that effective financial market regulation and proper fiscal rules and institutions are required to secure financial market stability and the sustainability of public debt and that a premature exit from accommodating monetary policies would do more harm than good. They argue that monetary policy alone will not solve Europe’s problems. The differing recommendations are mainly based on differing assessments of the European business cycle.     

Market implied future earnings and analysts’ forecasts

This study provides evidence on market implied future earnings based on the residual income valuation (RIV) framework and compares these earnings with analyst earnings forecasts for accuracy (absolute forecast error) and bias (signed forecast error). Prior research shows that current stock price reflects future earnings and that analyst forecasts are biased. Thus, how price-based imputed forecasts compare with analyst forecasts is interesting. Using different cost of capital estimates, we use the price-earnings relation and impute firms’ future annual earnings from three residual income (RI) models for up to 5 years. Relative to I/B/E/S analyst forecasts, imputed forecasts from the RI models are less or no more biased when cost of capital is low (equal to a risk-free rate or slightly higher). Analysts slightly outperform these RI models in terms of accuracy for immediate future (1 or 2) years in the forecast horizon but the opposite is true for more distant future years when cost of capital is low. A regression analysis shows that, in explaining future earnings changes, analyst forecasts relative to imputed forecasts do not impound a significant amount of earnings information embedded in current price. In additional tests, we impute future long-term earnings growth rates and find that they are more accurate and less biased than I/B/E/S analyst long-term earnings growth forecasts. Together, the results suggest that the RIV framework can be used to impute a firm’s future earnings that are high in accuracy and low in bias, especially for distant future years.     

Uncertainty of Governmental Relief and the Crowding out of Flood Insurance

This paper discusses the problem of crowding out of insurance by co-existing governmental relief programs—the so-called ‘charity hazard’—in the context of different institutional schemes of governmental disaster relief in Austria and Germany. We test empirically whether an assured partial relief scheme (as in Austria) drives a stronger crowding out of private insurance than a scheme promising full relief which is subject to ad-hoc political decision making (as in Germany). Our general finding is that the institutional design of governmental relief programs significantly affects the demand for private natural hazard insurance.     

An empirical study of the usefulness of human resources turnover costs in australian accounting firms

This paper reports the results of a laboratory experiment designed to evaluate the usefulness of applying Human Resources Accounting (HRA) to the problem of labour turnover management decision making in a sample of Australian accounting firms. Useful was defined as a reduction in uncertainty and an increase in relevance and sufficiency. Using a pretest-post-test research design, 57 volunteer accountants responsible for personnel decisions were individually administered (1) a two-part pilot tested case study with and without Human Resources Turnover Costs (HRTC); (2) a questionnaire which measured subjects' response to levels of uncertainty, relevance and sufficiency of the information. Three specific hypotheses tested warranted the conclusion that HRTC information significantly reduced accountants' levels of uncertainty and increased their levels of relevance and sufficiency.     

Auditors' behaviour in an audit conflict situation: A research note on the role of locus of control and ethical reasoning

This study investigates the interaction effects of locus of control, a personality variable, and ethical reasoning on the behaviour of auditors in an audit conflict situation. Eighty experienced auditors from a sample of Big Six and Non-Big Six CPA firms in Hong Kong were provided with a case study involving an audit conflict situation and were asked to state the extent to which they would accede to the client's request. Subjects were also administered Rotter's Locus of Control Scale and the Denning Issues Test (DIT) to measure ethical reasoning. Analyses of the data using multiple regression found that ethical reasoning moderated the relationship between locus of control and the auditors' responses to accede to client's request in an audit conflict situation. An implication of these results is that the explicit recognition of both locus of control and ethical reasoning provides a better explanation for differences in auditors' ethical decision making.     

An Analysis of Joint Effects of Investment Opportunity Set,Free Cash Flows and Size on Corporate Debt Policy

This study, based on a sample of 1869 observations from 1989 to 1993 for non-regulated U.S. firms, examines the association between investment opportunity set (IOS), free cash flows (FCF) and debt, and also tests whether firm size acts as a moderating variable on this association. The results show that there is a significantly positive association between FCF and debt for low IOS firms, which provide support to Jensen's (1986) control hypothesis. The results also show that the positive association between debt and high FCF for low IOS firms is more pronounced for large firms, suggesting that the firm size serves as a moderating variable on the association.     

An Analysis of Hong Kong Auditors' Perceptions of the Importance of Selected Red Flag Factors in Risk Assessment

This study examined auditors' perceptions of the relative level of risk of fraud and material irregularities associated with the presence of six red flag factors and also evaluated the quality of auditors' judgements. The study was conducted in two stages. In the first stage, subjects were asked to rank the importance of 15 factors that proxy the existence of material misstatements. Based on the responses to this questionnaire, 6 of the most important factors were identified and included in the second stage, a lens model experiment. In the lens model experiment, 30 experienced auditors from a cross-section of Big 6 firms were used as subjects in a repeated-measures ANOVA design. Results showed that misstatements in prior audits and indicators of going-concern problems were perceived to be the most significant factors in alerting auditors to the risk of fraud and material irregularities. In making these judgements, auditors demonstrated a relatively high level of consensus and consistency. However, the two most important factors in the lens model experiment are not the same as the results of the first survey suggesting that the first group of respondents, faced with a simple questionnaire, used heuristics in their decision making. The results have implications for audit practice.     

Trade Openness and Monetary Policy in Ghana

The study employed a Structural VAR model, using monthly time series data from 2002 to 2017 to assess the relationship between trade openness and effectiveness of monetary policy in Ghana. The empirical results revealed that as the degree of trade openness increases, monetary policy becomes more effective in reducing the rate of inflation. However, monetary policy is less effective to reduce the output gap. Therefore, the results suggest that monetary policy authorities must take into account the level of trade openness whenever they are formulating monetary policy.