Analyst herding and firm-level investor sentiment

Financial Markets and Portfolio Management - This study examines the effect of firm-level investor sentiment derived from news articles and Twitter media content on analyst herding. The results...     

Relative wage concern: the missing piece in the contract multiplier?

Recent research has cast serious doubts on the explanatory power of staggered wage/price setting to account for both output and inflation persistence following money shocks. This paper extends a dynamic general equilibrium model with wage staggering by incorporating relative wage concern on the part of workers. In sharp contrast to previous analyses, in this model both output and inflation dynamics exhibit substantial persistence. Moreover, persistence results hold for a wide range of parameterisations. Our results suggest that relative wage concern may be the missing piece in the money shock persistence puzzle.     

Reopening the convergence debate: A new look at cross-country growth empirics

There are two sources of inconsistency in existing cross-country empirical work on growth: correlated individual effects and endogenous explanatory variables. We estimate a variety of cross-country growth regressions using a generalized method of moments estimator that eliminates both problems. In one application, we find that per capita incomes converge to their steady-state levels at a rate of approximately 10 percent per year. This result stands in sharp contrast to the current consensus, which places the convergence rate at 2 percent. We discuss the theoretical implications of this finding. In another application, we perform a test of the Solow model. Again, contrary to prior reults, we reject both the standard and the augmented version of the model.     

TESTING THE INDUCED INNOVATION HYPOTHESIS USING COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS

This paper deals with some of the problems involved in testing the hypothesis that factor price movements tend to influence the type of technological innovations which are developed and adopted, known as the Induced Innovation Hypothesis. Previous methods to perform this test are briefly reviewed and their limitations are discussed. A testing procedure which is based on the use of cointegration analysis is proposed and its advantages outlined. Finally, one application of the method is made, providing little support for the Induced Innovation Hypothesis in the case of US Agriculture (1948–83).     

Common value auctions with independent types

In this paper I consider a common value model, with independent types, where the ex-post value of the good is influenced by the bidders' information at the auction stage. The seller cannot fully extract the surplus. In a symmetric model the optimal mechanism can be implemented through first price, second price, or English auctions; but not through a Dutch auction. Other properties of the optimal auctions are that the seller's reservation price is endogenous, and that in sealed bid auctions the price may exceed the value of the object (winner's curse).     

The half-truth of first-mover advantage

Many executives take for granted that the first company in a new product category gets an unbeatable head start and reaps long-lasting benefits. But that doesn't always happen. The authors of this article discovered that much depends on the pace at which the category's technology is changing and the speed at which the market is evolving. By analyzing these two factors, companies can improve their odds of succeeding as first movers with the resources they possess. Gradual evolution in both the technology and the market provides a first mover with the best conditions for creating a dominant position that is long lasting (Hoover in the vacuum cleaner industry is a good example). In such calm waters, a company can defend its advantages even without exceptional skills or extensive financial resources. When the market is changing rapidly and the product isn't, a first entrant with extensive resources can obtain a long-lasting advantage (as Sony did with its Walkman personal stereo); a company with only limited resources probably must settle for a short-term benefit. When the market is static but the product is changing constantly, first-mover advantages of either kind--durable or short-lived--are unlikely. Only companies with very deep pockets can survive (think of Sony and the digital cameras it pioneered). Rapid churn in both the technology and the market creates the worst conditions. But if companies have an acute sense of when to exit-as Netscape demonstrated when it agreed to be acquired by AOL-a worthwhile short-term gain is possible. Before venturing into a newly forming market, you need to analyze the environment, assess your resources, then determine which type offirst-mover advantage is most achievable. Once you've gone into the water, you have no choice but to swim.     

GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM WITH CONSTANT RELATIVE RISK AVERSION AND VASICEK INTEREST RATES1

We consider a pure exchange economy consisting of a single risky asset whose dividend drift rate is modeled as an Omstein-Uhlenbeck process, and a representative agent with power-utility who, in equilibrium, consumes the dividend paid by the risky asset. Endogenously determined interest rates are found to be of the Vasicek (1977) type the mean and variance of the equilibrium stock price are stochastic and have mean-reverting components A closed-form solution for a standard call option is determined for the case of log-utility. Equilibrium values have interesting implications for the equity premium puzzle observed by Mehra and Prescott (1985)