Decision support system to design feasible high-frequency Motorways of the Sea: A new perspective for public commitment

ABSTRACT

The implementation of Motorways of the Sea (MoS) within the framework of European Union aid programs experiences a period of relative stagnation. This article analyzes the suitability of current short-term nonrepayable subsidy policy and develops a decision support system (DSS) that allows a medium- and long-term feasibility analysis of MoS proposals. One significant conclusion drawn from the application of the proposed DSS to a prototypical high-frequency MoS provides that the period of initial losses prior to achievement of both modal shift and accounting profits might last 10 years. Moreover, the entire duration of the period that includes prior objectives as well as the recovering of initial losses might reach 25 years. Therefore, existing schemes of public–private collaboration should be redefined. To this end, the proposed DSS also contributes to envisioning a spectrum of possibilities for private–public collaborations schemes, as opposed to public–private dichotomy of partnerships.     

Portfolios in the Ibex 35 before and after the Global Financial Crisis

In this article, we present an analysis of the effectiveness of various portfolio optimization strategies applied to the stocks included in the Spanish Ibex 35 index, for a period of 14 years, from 2001 until 2014. The period under study includes episodes of volatility and instability in financial markets, incorporating the Global Financial Crisis and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis. This implies a challenge in portfolio optimization strategies since the methodologies are restricted to the assignment of positive weights. We have taken for asset allocation the daily returns with an estimation window equal to 1 year and we hold portfolio assets for another year. This article attempts to influence the discussion over whether the naive diversification proves to be an effective strategy as opposed to portfolio optimization models. For that, we evaluate the out-of-sample performance of 15 strategies for asset allocation in the Ibex 35, before and after of the Global Financial Crisis. Our results suggest that a large number of strategies outperform to the 1/N rule and to the Ibex 35 index in terms of return, Sharpe ratio and lower VaR and CVaR. The mean-variance portfolio of Markowitz with short-sale constraints is the only strategy that renders a Sharpe ratio statistically different from Ibex 35 index in the 2001–2007 and 2008–2014 time periods.     

Determinants of CSR Reporting and Assurance: An Analysis of Top Cooperative and Mutual Organisations

Corporate social responsibility (CSR) has greatly influenced business communication. CSR reporting has become the main tool through which organisations worldwide communicate their economic, social and environmental performance. Just as this practice is consolidated, the need for credible information in this area is critical. As a result, some companies subject their CSR reports to an assurance process. Several studies have analysed CSR reporting and assurance among stock companies, but few authors have developed a non‐stock firm perspective. Given the shortage of prior research, we analyse these practices, focusing on cooperative and mutual organisations because, as social enterprises, they have a special link with CSR, and they represent another kind of firm with different transaction costs. By combining statistical and content analysis methods, we aim to identify the determinants that influence the adoption of CSR reporting and assurance, the choice of assuror and the quality of assurance statements. The findings reveal that size is positively but non‐linearly related to reporting, while country and sector significantly affect the adoption of reporting and assurance. Assurance statements substantially differ across providers and their quality depends on size, sector and assuror, exhibiting interactions between size and assuror and between sector and assuror.     

Orthogonal expansions for the generalized Cramér-von Mises statistics

We provide a new proof for the representation of Cramér-von Mises statistics under (known) gamma and normal distributions. The new method uses orthogonal polynomials and provides an explicit form of the statistics from which the asymptotic distribution can be calculated.Acknowledgements This research was partially supported by FQM-331, FQM-270, BMF 2001-2378 and BMF2002-04525-C02-02. The authors are thankful to the referees for their suggestions and helpful comments.     

Causes and consequences of exports' channel integration

This paper investigates the decision to export with a proprietary exports channel by Spanish manufacturing firms. The research focuses on the effects of organizational capabilities versus scale economies on the vertical integration decision, and postulates a system of two simultaneous equations to properly evaluate the influence of a proprietary exports channel on the volume of exports. The results show that scale economies are more relevant than organizational capabilities in the decision to vertically integrate, and that, when properly evaluated, the exports mode does not influence the level of exports. The first author acknowledges financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Education (CICYT SEC97-1368) and Comunidad de Madrid (06/0067/98). Previous versions of this paper have been presented at the 24th EARIE Conference in Leuven (Belgium), XIII Jornadas de Economía Industrial in Madrid (Spain). The authors want to thank two anonymous referees for their comments and suggestions, although any remaining mistake is our own responsibility.     

Shaping long-run expectations in problems of coordination

When far-sighted agents may adjust their behavior only gradually, the issue of equilibrium selection becomes one of tension between history and expectations. This paper analyzes whether, in this context, a government policy maker may intervene successfully and redirect expectations away from the inertia of undesired history. The possibilities and limitations of such an approach to `expectation management' are studied within a game-theoretic framework which involves both the government and the population.     

Water markets design and evidence from experimental economics

Market mechanisms are gaining increasing acceptance all over the world as a way of making more efficient use of scarce water resources. Designing regulatory frameworks that ensure both inter- and intra-temporal efficient allocations is a daunting task, especially if supply is stochastic and there is ample storage capacity. In addition to defining tradable rights, specific provisions must regulate the use of reservoirs. Commonly, water statutes include provisions that establish asymmetries regarding the allocation of water, and market restrictions that ban water trading across different users. In this article, we use data collected in a laboratory to test two specific market regulations included in the 1999 Water reform in Spain. First, junior right holders are not allowed to buy water from senior users. Second, the law does not explicitly define water rights over units left in reservoirs for the following season. Results suggest that trading restrictions among water right holders lead to welfare losses for senior users. It is shown that removing this restriction would increase senior right holders’ benefits, without reducing those of junior users. Results show that defining water rights over saved units across periods would increase the average stock levels of reservoirs, and reduce market price instability. The lessons learned from the Spanish experience are applicable to settings characterized by unstable natural water supply and the availability of large storage facilities.      

Competitive equilibrium hyperinflation under rational expectations

This paper shows that a competitive equilibrium model, where a representative agent maximizes welfare, expectations are rational and markets are in equilibrium can account for several hyperinflation stylized facts. The theory is built by combining two hypotheses, namely, a fiscal crisis that requires printing money to finance an increasing public deficit and a predicted change in an unsustainable fiscal regime.We thank an anonymous referee for very helpful comments. A. B. Cunha acknowledges financial support from the Brazilian Council of Science and Technology (CNPq).     

On the comparison of Schwartz and Smith’s two- and three-factor models on commodity prices

Since Schwartz and Smith (2000) published their study on two-factor model on commodity prices, many studies have used this model and others have extended it. The authors also proposed the three-factor model due to the poor fitting of the two-factor one on long-term futures prices. At that time the authors had only long-term prices from a private source to calibrate, test and compare these models. No public data on long-term future contracts were available. On the other hand, during the last decade the commodity prices soared as did the liquidity of long-term contracts. This means that the interest of the agents in the management of their risk on long-term positions increased the same way and this is the motivation for this study. In this article, we revisit the comparison between two- and three-factor models using public data for short- and long-term contracts (we use up to the 67-month-ahead contract). We also provide a detailed derivation of the three-factor model differently from that of the original article. Following the original article of Schwartz and Smith, we used oil futures prices traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange to calibrate the model. The results show a better fit of the three-factor model for the term structure of prices and volatilities mainly for long maturities contracts, while the two-factor model in most portions of the curve underestimates the risk premiums. This type of analysis is important not only for daily agents negotiating the physical commodities through long-term contracts but also for investment decisions on development of real projects.     

Supermarket Entry and the Survival of Small Stores

We analyze the effect of supermarket entry on the exit of small stores in the food retailing sector in Montevideo between 1998 and 2007. We use detailed geographical information to identify the link between supermarket entry and the exit of nearby small stores. Entry of supermarkets using small- to medium-size formats creates a competitive threat for the existing small stores, decreasing their probability of survival. The result is robust to several model specifications and varying definitions of what constitutes a supermarket. The impact of supermarket entry is unequivocal for groceries, bakeries, fresh pasta shops, and butcher shops.