人民币汇率变动与我国劳动力就业

随着人民币汇率逐步走高,汇率与我国劳动力就业之间的关系也引起学界更多的关注。研究表明,人民币汇率走高将会加大我国劳动力就业的压力,但这种影响是由国际贸易、国际投资以及消费模式间接传导出来的,并因为国际贸易、国际投资与消费之间的互动关系,而进一步加大。应将稳定就业甚至适度扩大就业作为我们调整人民币汇率的一个利益出发点,从三个中间变量着手,尽可能降低人民币升值所带来的就业负效应。     

创新型城市的概念、构成要素及发展战略

本文界定了创新型城市的内涵,在充分借鉴世界先进创新型城市的发展经验基础上,分析城市创新体系的构成要素,提出区域一体化联动和差异化发展战略。     

Performance Measures in Dose-Finding Experiments

In the first phase of pharmaceutical development, and assuming that the probability of positive response increases with dose, the main statistical goal is to estimate a percentile of the dose–response function for a given target value $\mathrm{\Gamma }$. We compare the Maximum Likelihood and centred isotonic regression estimators of the target dose and we discuss several performance criteria to assess inferential precision, the amount of toxicity exposure and the trade-off between them for a set of some exemplary adaptive designs. We compare these designs using graphical tools. Several scenarios are considered using simulation, including the use of several start-up rules, the change of slope of the dose-toxicity function at the target dose and also different theoretical models, as logistic, normal or skew-normal distribution functions.     

Packs,Troops and Herds: Prosocial Cooperatives and Innovation in the New Normal

Prosocial organizations are emerging to tackle the effects of a New Normal. As they navigate its fragile and liquid institutional membranes, they prioritize cooperative forms of governance. These forms allow for collaboration and democratic decision-making necessary for the development of innovative solutions in this new context. At the same time, the high coordination costs of cooperatives lead to significant market pressures. Therefore, understanding when and under what conditions these new cooperatives innovate and strive is important as it provides insight into whether and how these ventures can become a viable alternative in this changing landscape. Using configurational analyses of organizational enablers leading to innovation in 40 entrepreneurial cooperatives, we identify three approaches: Attentive Pack, Eclectic Troop, and Wandering Herd, showing that innovative outcomes can indeed emerge under traditional cooperative features emphasizing collectivism. However, the pursuit of higher novelty requires a shift to more individualistic, business-as-usual, approaches. The New Normal does indeed enhance entrepreneurial activity, but of a different kind comprising novel sets of antecedents and outcomes, which we show can easily become the new dominant form of venturing required in this new context.     

Identifying the Transition from Efficient-Market to Herding Behavior: Using a Method from Econophysics

We test whether “detrended fluctuation analysis” (DFA)—an econophysics method—identifies the transition from efficient-market trading to herding behavior and the rise of the NASDAQ dot.com stock market bubble. DFA divides a time series into “segments” of varying lengths and then tests whether power-law distributions exist within the segments. A power-law distribution of stock-price changes within a segment indicates herding behavior and the start of the dot.com bubble. The clarity of the transition indication depends on both segment lengths and segment starting dates. Our findings show that DFA can be used to identify the beginning of stock-market bubbles but not the beginning of crashes.     

Regime-switching purchasing power parity in Latin America: Monte Carlo unit root tests with dynamic conditional score

We suggest a Monte Carlo simulation-based unit root test of the purchasing power parity theory for Latin American countries. Under the null hypothesis, we use a Markov regime-switching (MS) model with unit root in the conditional location and MS volatility dynamics. Under the alternative hypothesis, the proposed test incorporates Markov regime-switching autoregressive moving average (MS-ARMA) plus MS volatility dynamics. Under both the null and alternative hypotheses, one of the volatility models estimated is Beta-t-EGARCH, which is a recent dynamic conditional score volatility model. We use data on real effective exchange rate time series for 14 Latin American countries. For each country, we estimate by Monte Carlo simulation the critical values of the unit root test. We provide an economic discussion of the unit root test results and also study the robustness of MS-ARMA plus MS volatility with respect to smooth transition autoregressive models with Fourier function.     

Persistence,mean reversion and non-linearities in the US housing prices over 1830–2013

The objective of this study is to provide a direct estimate of the degree of persistence of measures of nominal and real house prices for the US economy, covering the longest possible annual sample of data, namely 1830–2013. The estimation of the degree of persistence accommodates for non-linear (deterministic) trends using Chebyshev polynomials in time. In general, the results show a high degree of persistence in the series along with a component of non-linear behaviour. In general, if we assume uncorrelated errors, non-linearities are observed in both nominal and real prices, but this hypothesis is rejected in favour of linear models for the log-transformation of the data. However, if autocorrelated errors are permitted, non-linearities are observed in all cases, and mean reversion is found in the case of logged prices, though given the wide confidence intervals, the unit root null hypothesis cannot be rejected in these cases.     

The dynamics and revealed preference of status-quo optimality

Summary In a preceding companion paper, a static model of individual decision making was proposed that, due to imprecise perceptions, induces simple and inertial behavior at equilibrium (status-quo optimal) points. This paper addresses two complementary issues. Firstly, it studies the learning dynamics induced by the model and shows that its well-defined limit behavior ranges from status-quo optimal to fully optimal, depending on the underlying features of the problem. Secondly, the paper characterizes the behavioral implications of the model and compares them with those derived from standard decision-theoretic frameworks. Specifically, it is shown that, from a Revealed-Preference perspective, status-quo optimal behavior may be identified with that rationalizable by an acyclic preference relation, possibly intransitive.     

事业单位办公室档案日常管理与应用

近年来,随着档案宣传工作的进展,人们对档案工作重要性的认识普遍有一定的提高,但提高的幅度有限,这其中主要原因是宣传力度还不够。为了加强事业单位档案的管理工作,促进档案管理的规范化、标准化,更好地为社会发展和经济建设服务我们应进一步加大档案工作的宣传力度,广泛开展档案法律法规的宣传教育活动。