The Transmission of Sustained Growth through the Terms of Trade in an Endogenous Growth Model

This paper develops a two‐country model of endogenous growth and international trade in intermediate goods. In autarky just one of the economies enjoys sustained growth. The trade situation may be characterized by complete specialization of both countries, or by incomplete specialization of the growing economy. In either case, trade transmits perpetual growth to the stagnant economy because of the permanent improvements in its terms of trade. The existence of a non‐reproducible factor in the growing economy is crucial to ensure propagation of growth. Moreover, under incomplete specialization countries converge in per capita income. This result relies on two assumptions. First, there must be a large enough share of world income to pay for the input in which the stagnant economy has comparative advantage. Second, all technologies producing intermediate goods should be equally intensive in the non‐reproducible factor.     

Portfolios in the Ibex 35 before and after the Global Financial Crisis

In this article, we present an analysis of the effectiveness of various portfolio optimization strategies applied to the stocks included in the Spanish Ibex 35 index, for a period of 14 years, from 2001 until 2014. The period under study includes episodes of volatility and instability in financial markets, incorporating the Global Financial Crisis and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis. This implies a challenge in portfolio optimization strategies since the methodologies are restricted to the assignment of positive weights. We have taken for asset allocation the daily returns with an estimation window equal to 1 year and we hold portfolio assets for another year. This article attempts to influence the discussion over whether the naive diversification proves to be an effective strategy as opposed to portfolio optimization models. For that, we evaluate the out-of-sample performance of 15 strategies for asset allocation in the Ibex 35, before and after of the Global Financial Crisis. Our results suggest that a large number of strategies outperform to the 1/N rule and to the Ibex 35 index in terms of return, Sharpe ratio and lower VaR and CVaR. The mean-variance portfolio of Markowitz with short-sale constraints is the only strategy that renders a Sharpe ratio statistically different from Ibex 35 index in the 2001–2007 and 2008–2014 time periods.     

Shaping long-run expectations in problems of coordination

When far-sighted agents may adjust their behavior only gradually, the issue of equilibrium selection becomes one of tension between history and expectations. This paper analyzes whether, in this context, a government policy maker may intervene successfully and redirect expectations away from the inertia of undesired history. The possibilities and limitations of such an approach to `expectation management' are studied within a game-theoretic framework which involves both the government and the population.     

U-Convolutional model for spatio-temporal wind speed forecasting

The increasing penetration of intermittent renewable energy in power systems brings operational challenges. One way of supporting them is by enhancing the predictability of renewables through accurate forecasting. Convolutional Neural Networks (Convnets) provide a successful technique for processing space-structured multi-dimensional data. In our work, we propose the U-Convolutional model to predict hourly wind speeds for a single location using spatio-temporal data with multiple explanatory variables as an input. The U-Convolutional model is composed of a U-Net part, which synthesizes input information, and a Convnet part, which maps the synthesized data into a single-site wind prediction. We compare our approach with advanced Convnets, a fully connected neural network, and univariate models. We use time series from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis as datasets and select temperature and u- and v-components of wind as explanatory variables. The proposed models are evaluated at multiple locations (totaling 181 target series) and multiple forecasting horizons. The results indicate that our proposal is promising for spatio-temporal wind speed prediction, with results that show competitive performance on both time horizons for all datasets.     

Low carbon procurement: An emerging agenda

The importance of climate change is shaping public policy internationally at several levels with much of the effort aimed at reducing the amount of carbon emissions released to the atmosphere through anthropogenic activity. Public procurement is a key financial mechanism available to governments to drive policy change and because of its scale can be also one of the most effective. During the past decade Low Carbon Procurement (LCP) has emerged as focal policy agenda in the UK and other countries. However, the implementation of LCP requires improved definition by governments and a greater understanding of Carbon Management tools and concepts such as Lifecycle Analysis on the part of procurement chiefs. Focusing on public procurement in the UK within the context of international policy development, this paper develops a working definition and model for LCP to guide future discussions on policy and practice. The paper presents an agenda of expected challenges for the implementation of LCP, including problems associated with weighing trade-offs between carbon and wider environmental or sustainability objectives, use of carbon tools and methodologies. The paper concludes by identifying key directions for further LCP research.     

An Empowerment Model of Youth Financial Behavior

The current study examines the antecedents of youth financial behavior. By grounding the conceptual framework on empowerment theory, we argue that in addition to financial knowledge other elements such as intrapersonal (e.g., locus of control and motivation) and interactional elements (e.g., parental financial teaching and behavior) also impact youth financial behavior. To test the hypotheses, structural equation modeling is used on a data set of youth from Western Canada. The results indicate that external locus of control has the highest total effect on youth financial behavior followed by parental influence and motivation. Findings are validated by performing several robustness checks and multigroup analysis. Organizations trying to influence youth financial behavior should broaden the understanding of empowerment to include personal worldview, motivation, as well as social surroundings.