Non-causality: The role of the omitted variables

In this paper a proof is offered that if a variable Y₃ does not cause a variable Y₁ in the bivariate system (Y₁, Y₃) and Y₃ causes a variable Y₁ in higher-order system (Y₁, Y₂, Y₃), then the omitted variable Y₂ must cause the variable Y₁ in the bivariate system (Y₁, Y₂) and in the trivariate system (Y₁, Y₂, Y₃).     

Selecting structural innovations in DSGE models

Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are typically estimated assuming the existence of certain structural shocks that drive macroeconomic fluctuations. We analyze the consequences of estimating shocks that are “nonexistent” and propose a method to select the economic shocks driving macroeconomic uncertainty. Forcing these nonexisting shocks in estimation produces a downward bias in the estimated internal persistence of the model. We show how these distortions can be reduced by using priors for standard deviations whose support includes zero. The method allows us to accurately select shocks and estimate model parameters with high precision. We revisit the empirical evidence on an industry standard medium‐scale DSGE model and find that government and price markup shocks are innovations that do not generate statistically significant dynamics.     

Sovereign defaults and liquidity crises

Sovereign debt crises in emerging markets are usually associated with liquidity and banking crises. The conventional view is that the domestic turmoil is the consequence of foreign retaliation, although there is no clear empirical evidence on “classic” default penalties. This paper emphasizes, instead, a direct link between sovereign defaults and liquidity crises building on two natural assumptions: (i) government bonds represent a source of liquidity for the domestic private sector and (ii) the government cannot discriminate between domestic and foreign creditors in the event of default. In this context, external debt emerges even in the absence of classic penalties, and government default is countercyclical, triggers a liquidity crunch, and amplifies output volatility. In addition, a reform that involves a substitution of government bonds with privately-sourced liquidity instruments could backfire by restricting governments' access to foreign credit.     

The role of ownership structure in integrated reporting policies

Integrated reporting (IR) is used to demonstrate a firm's capacity to create value in the short, medium, and long term. It can better represent existing relationships between the company and its stakeholders, with a particular focus on investors. Attention to IR has grown considerably in recent years. However, studies on the determinants of IR quality are still limited. This study aims to bridge this literature gap by being the first study to analyse the role of ownership structure in IR context. To this end, it uses agency theory and is based on a sample of 152 international companies that have adopted IR. The results indicate a positive effect of institutional ownership and a negative effect of ownership concentration, managerial ownership and state ownership on the quality of integrated reports. These results are also consistent with the level of alignment of integrated reports with the <IR> framework. To our knowledge, this is the first study that analyses the role of ownership structure in the IR policies.     

Forecasting high resolution electricity demand data with additive models including smooth and jagged components

Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is a fundamental instrument in the efficient operational management and planning of electric utilities. Emerging smart grid technologies pose new challenges and opportunities. Although load forecasting at the aggregate level has been extensively studied, electrical load forecasting at fine-grained geographical scales of households is more challenging. Among existing approaches, semi-parametric generalized additive models (GAM) have been increasingly popular due to their accuracy, flexibility, and interpretability. Their applicability is justified when forecasting is addressed at higher levels of aggregation, since the aggregated load pattern contains relatively smooth additive components. High resolution data are highly volatile, forecasting the average load using GAM models with smooth components does not provide meaningful information about the future demand. Instead, we need to incorporate irregular and volatile effects to enhance the forecast accuracy. We focus on the analysis of such hybrid additive models applied on smart meters data and show that it leads to improvement of the forecasting performances of classical additive models at low aggregation levels.     

Project analysis using a linear approach (P.A.U.L.A.)

We define a general model (called PAULA) for the valuation, optimal management and selection among mutually exclusive safe projects. By exploiting the formal and financial features of the associated linear problems (primal and dual), we put forward two proposals to define an optimal internal financial law (IFL). They may be used to reduce the multiplicity of the IFLs and to avoid economically arbitrary outcomes.Research projectsCariplo andMurst.     

Cointegration and distance between differenced processes

In this note, it is argued that cointegration augments the distance between the differenced series. If two series, x _t and y _t , are integrated of order one and cointegrated and v _t and w _t are integrated of order one but not cointegrated then, under certain conditions, the distance between ??x _t and ??y _t is more than the distance between ??v _t and ??w _t .     

How images about emerging economies influence the willingness to accept expatriate assignments

Countries’ image is a multifaceted construct. Its symbolic dimensions have shown to play an important role both on consumer behavior and on the attraction that organizations can have during the recruitment process. This paper offers a comprehensive model of international mobility decisions encompassing the antecedents and consequences of perceptions about emerging economies, proposing that country image depends on individuals’ background and social identities. In this context, countries’ evaluations can play a major role on influencing the willingness to accept expatriate job offers. We used a within-subject design asking for opinions about hypothetical job offers on six particular host countries: Algeria, Democratic Republic of Congo, Argentina, Chile, Angola and Mozambique. Survey results from more than 500 engineers, (125 French nationals, 121 Spanish and 131 Portuguese, with the remaining 138 coming from 42 different countries, yet working in 1 of the 3 above-mentioned European countries), evidence, that language proficiency influences the evaluation of specific expatriate locations. Our results also convey the critical role of the perceived level of safety and cultural attraction in predicting the willingness to accept expatriate job offers. We conclude by discussing the theoretical and practical implications for human resource management.     

Can aggregation explain the persistence of inflation?

An aggregation exercise is proposed that aims at investigating whether the fast average adjustments of the disaggregate inflation series of the euro area CPI is coherent with the slow adjustment of euro area aggregate inflation. Estimating a dynamic factor model for 404 inflation sub-indices of the euro area CPI allows to decompose the dynamics of inflation sub-indices into a part due to a common macroeconomic shock and to sector specific idiosyncratic shocks. Although idiosyncratic shocks dominate the variance of sectoral prices, one common factor appears to be the main driver of aggregate dynamics. In addition, the heterogenous propagation of this common shock across sectoral inflation rates, and in particular its slow propagation to inflation rates of services, generates the persistence of aggregate inflation. We conclude that the aggregation mechanism explains a significant amount of aggregate inflation persistence.     

New development: Managing the Covid-19 pandemic—from a hospital-centred model of care to a community co-production approach

ABSTRACT

Covid-19 is not only a crisis of intensive care but a social and humanitarian crisis. Until mass vaccination is undertaken, control of contagion will rely on responsible behaviour by citizens. Strategies for fighting Covid-19 in different regions of Italy have shown that an area-specific approach, not just hospital-focused, pays off. This article proposes a community co-production approach, in the light of discussions with politicians and key health decision-makers and actors.