Die statistischen Gesetze des Gleichgewichtes nach Henry Schultz

Ohne ZusammenfassungAus dem Italienischen übersetzt von Oskar Morgenstern, Wien.     

THE DEPENDENCE STRUCTURE OF RUNNING MAXIMA AND MINIMA: RESULTS AND OPTION PRICING APPLICATIONS

We provide general results for the dependence structure of running maxima (minima) of sets of variables in a model based on (i) Markov dynamics; (ii) no Granger causality; (iii) cross-section dependence. At the time series level, we derive recursive formulas for running minima and maxima. These formulas enable to use a bootstrapping technique to recursively recover the pricing kernels of barrier options from those of the corresponding European options. We also show that the dependence formulas for running maxima (minima) are completely defined from the copula function representing dependence among levels at the terminal date. The result is applied to multivariate discrete barrier digital products. Barrier Altiplanos are simply priced by (i) bootstrapping the price of univariate barrier products; (ii) evaluating a European Altiplano with these values.     

Trade credit versus bank credit: a simultaneous analysis in European SMEs

Small Business Economics - Trade credit and bank credit constitute two of the most important external sources of finance for small firms. The purpose of this paper, first and foremost, is to...     

Managing brand extension via licensing: An investigation into the high-end fashion industry

Brand managers are increasingly confronted with the option of licensing their brands when pursuing brand extensions. Such decisions are typically based on evaluation of the risks associated with such a contractual form, and with the nature of the asset at stake, i.e., the brand. Drawing on transaction cost economics and the brand extension literature, the authors investigate how managers balance the advantages of rapidly accessing new product categories through licensing with the risk of negative reciprocal effects and licensees' opportunistic behavior. Our results suggests that firms tend to be strategically conservative when examining how to extend their brands, as managers see the risk of negative effects on the parent brand as outweighing the advantages associated with licensing.     

Single and joint default in a structural model with purely discontinuous asset prices

Structural models of credit risk are known to present both vanishing spreads at very short maturities and a poor spread fit over longer maturities. The former shortcoming, which is due to the diffusive behaviour assumed for asset values, can be circumvented by considering discontinuous asset prices. In this paper the authors resort to a pure jump process of the Variance-Gamma type. First the authors calibrate the corresponding Merton type structural model to single-name data for the DJ CDX.NA.IG and CDX.NA.HY components. By so doing, they show that it also circumvents the diffusive structural models difficulties over longer horizons. Particularly, it corrects for the underprediction of low-risk spreads and the overprediction of high-risk ones. Then the authors extend the model to joint default, resorting to a recent formulation of the VG multivariate model and without superimposing a copula choice. They fit default correlation for a sample of CDX.NA names, using equity correlation. The main advantage of our joint model, with respect to the existing non-diffusive ones, is that it allows full calibration without the equicorrelation assumption, but still in a parsimonious way. As an example of the default assessments which the calibrated model can provide, the authors price an FtD swap.     

Stability and bifurcations in <Emphasis Type="Italic">IS-LM</Emphasis> economic models

In this note, we analyze the local dynamics of a general non-linear fixedprice disequilibrium IS-LM model. We assume investment behavior as a general nonlinear function avoiding any Kaldor type assumption. By proving the existence of a family of periodic solutions bifurcating from a steady state, we confirm and extend some results in the literature for IS-LM models reducible to Leinard’s equation. We use bifurcation theory and study the effect of a change of the adjustment parameter in the money market upon the solutions of the model as the steady state loses stability. We establish analytically that the values of the adjustment parameter in the money market may affect the equilibrium relative to the product market and the government budget constraint. (JEL: C62, E32)     

An integrated scenario analysis for the metal coating sector in Europe

Although new paint products and technologies have been developed, the sector of paint application still contributes substantially to total volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions. Recent environmental legislation, especially the EU Solvent Emission Directive 1999/13/EC and its transposition into national law, coming into force in 2007, will have an important influence on the sector structure and the associated supply chain, especially for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). This paper summarises a comprehensive scenario analysis to explore possible future trajectories for the sector. The main focus is on paint application activities, considering in particular the consequences of new environmentally friendly products and technologies which can be used by SMEs. Four different scenarios representing possible future states of the sector are evaluated, taking into account environmental, technical and socio-economic aspects along the associated supply chain and life cycle. The scenarios allow the formulation of recommendations and guidelines for policy makers and industries. This example confirms that interdisciplinary scenario analysis is a suitable approach to investigate possible future development of an industrial sector.     

Tax Incentives and Household Investment in Complementary Pension Insurance: Some Recent Evidence From the Italian Experience

We show by a simple difference‐in‐difference methodology that, contrary to prior research, robustly raising the deductibility limit associated to pension fund holdings in Italy did not succeed in boosting households’ contributions to this form of savings. Some other empirical findings also suggest that this policy measure may have not even increased the average amount of first‐time contributors to such funds. In view of the specific features of the Italian market for complementary insurance (relatively young and less developed), these empirical results might be of interest to policymakers acting in countries with similar features (for instance, some of the more recent EU members).     

A test for the too-big-to-fail hypothesis for European banks during the financial crisis

Motivated by the theoretical prediction of the opportunistic behaviour of large banks that face expected public intervention, we test a full and a partial form of the too-big-to-fail (TBTF) hypothesis. The full form of the hypothesis implies the increase in the risk undertakings and profitability of banks that exceed a certain dimension; the partial form of the hypothesis implies only an augmented risk appetite of large banks compared to their smaller counterparts. The examined area is the European banking industry, whose behaviour is observed over the first wave of the present financial crisis (2007/09). The estimation of a quadratic fit that links change in a bank’s credit risk profile and profitability retention rates with a bank’s size suggests the existence of a partial form of the TBTF hypothesis. However, a more precise, local rolling windows estimation of the size sensitivities reveals that large banks – those whose liabilities exceed approximately 2% of the country of origin’s GDP (15% of our sample) – show an increase in credit risk profile and a superior capability of retaining higher ROA scores, vis-à-vis their smaller counterparts. With the caveats of our investigation, we interpret these results as evidence of a full form of the TBTF hypothesis.     

Die Methode der nationalökonomischen Wissenschaft

Ohne ZusammenfassungAus dem Italienischen übersetzt von Dr. Martha Stephanie Braun, Wien.