The non‐linear dynamics of output and unemployment in the U.S.

This paper studies the joint dynamics of U.S. output and unemployment rate in a non‐linear VAR model. The non‐linearity is introduced through a feedback variable that endogenously augments the output lags of the VAR in recessionary phases. Sufficient conditions for the ergodicity of the model, potentially applying to a larger class of threshold models, are provided. The linear specification is rejected in favour of our threshold VAR. However, in the estimation the feedback is found to be statistically significant only on unemployment, while it transmits to output through its cross‐correlation. This feedback effect from recessions generates important asymmetries in the propagation of shocks, a possible key to interpret the divergence in the measures of persistence in the literature. The regime‐dependent persistence also explains the finding that the feedback from recession exerts a positive effect on the long‐run growth rate of the economy, an empirical validation of the Schumpeterian macroeconomic theories. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multinational status and firm exit in the Italian manufacturing and service sectors

The aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of survival for Italian firms according to their ownership status. To this end, we analyze firm survival distinguishing the Italian firms in foreign multinationals (FMNEs), domestic multinationals (DMNEs) and domestic non-multinational firms (NMNEs). The empirical analysis, carried out over the period 2004–2008, is based on the Cox Proportional Hazard Model, in which we look for the impact of ownership dummies on firm survival controlling for several firm and industry specific covariates. Our main findings reveal that FMNEs are more likely to exit the market than national firms in manufacturing and services. In contrast, DMNEs have a higher chance of survival compared with the other firm categories in services. However, when we conduct a finer level of industry classification, we observe the presence of some heterogeneity in the patterns of firm survival. Moreover, we find that the presence of foreign firms has a positive impact on firms’ survival mainly in the service sectors.     

The role of self-accounting and financial capability in consumer credit decisions

The role of financial capability in the consumers＇ financial behaviour has been widely analyzed by the literature. The same happened for the relationship between debt and financial capability. The consensus about the benefits of an increase in the levels of financial literacy collides with a diversity of opinions on what the best solutions to increase financial capability. While methods based on traditional teaching may not be an effective solutions and they could not provide results in the short term, solutions oriented to support consumers in important financial decisions （requests for funding, choice of retirement solutions, etc.） may show greater effectiveness. Studies in literature have shown the tendency of subjects with high levels of financial capability to adopt a long term view and to upgrade their daily financial behaviour with attitudes and practices related to self-finance （budget, financial check-up, saving for goals, etc.） The paper focuses on the relationship between financial capability and self-accounting practices, interpreting the latter as evidence of conduct financially aware. After a review of the literature designed to emphasize the role of self-accounting in the context of personal finance, a financial check-up based tool is proposed, pointing out how the financial accounts＇ schemes and logics （regular budget, estimates and forecasts checking targets） may find useful application in the context of personal finance.     

Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Domestic Performance: the Italian Manufacturing and Services Sectors

How does outward foreign direct investment (FDI) affect employment and productivity growth in the home country? Does the impact of outward investment differ among manufacturing and service sectors? In this paper we analyze the effects of investing abroad using firm-level data for Italy for the period 2003–2006. We adopt matching techniques in combination with a difference-in-difference estimator in order to investigate the causal effect of becoming multinational on domestic employment and productivity. Preliminary results suggest that Italian outward FDI has limited effects on domestic employment and performance of internationalizing firms on average. However, results significantly differ depending on the sector (manufacturing versus services) where the MNEs are operating. In particular, we find that while in the manufacturing sector, outward FDI tends to strengthen both productivity and, to less extent, employment. In the service sector, we find a negative effect on employment (two years after the investment).     

The Club of Rome and sustainable development

What remains of The limits to growth after 25 years? What impact would it have in the next 25 years? This essays attempts to answer these questions by examining the notions of sustainability and eco-technologies.     

Estimating overnight volatility of asset returns by using the generalized dynamic factor model approach

This paper proposes a new approach to estimate the overnight volatility of an individual stock return. Since markets generally do not trade during the overnight period, measures of realized volatility cannot be computed on a “high-frequency” basis. Some studies have resorted to using the square overnight return as a proxy for the overnight realized volatility, but this measure is typically very noisy. The new estimator of the overnight volatility proposed is obtained using the generalized dynamic factor model. The performance of the new proxy is examined using simulated data. This is found to perform better than the squared overnight return. Empirical analysis of the S&P100 constituents confirms the potential of this proxy.     

Credit lines as monitored liquidity insurance: Theory and evidence

We propose a theory of credit lines provided by banks to firms as a form of monitored liquidity insurance. Bank monitoring and resulting revocations help control illiquidity-seeking behavior of firms insured by credit lines. The cost of credit lines is thus greater for firms with high liquidity risk, which in turn are likely to use cash instead of credit lines. We test this implication for corporate liquidity management by identifying exogenous shocks to liquidity risk of firms in corporate bond and equity markets. Firms experiencing increases in liquidity risk move out of credit lines and into cash holdings.     

Third-party manipulation of conflict: an experiment

We design a laboratory experiment in which an interested third party endowed with private information sends a public message to two conflicting players, who then make their choices. We find that third-party communication is not strategic. Nevertheless, a hawkish message by a third party makes hawkish behavior more likely while a dovish message makes it less likely. Moreover, how subjects respond to the message is largely unaffected by the third party’s incentives. We argue that our results are consistent with a focal point interpretation in the spirit of Schelling.     

The impact on the cost of equity capital in the effects of integrated reporting quality

Integrated reporting is a new reporting tool that includes financial and nonfinancial information, which represents a natural evolution of the corporate reporting movement. Although this practice has gained increasing attention in recent years, both from an academic and professional perspective, the quality of the reports still represents a critical aspect due to inadequate investigation. Only a few studies have focused on integrated reporting quality, and contributions on the effects of quality have been even rarer. This study aims to investigate on the impact of integrated reporting quality on the firm's cost of equity capital, owing to the paramount importance of this parameter for firms and investors. Our results highlight that integrated reporting quality has a significantly negative association with the cost of equity capital, suggesting that integrated reporting quality represents an innovative way to reduce the cost of equity. To our knowledge, this is the first study that examines the relationship between integrated reporting quality and a firm's cost of equity.