Improving the accuracy of outlook price forecasts

This study investigates the predictive ability of outlook hog price forecasts released by Iowa State University relative to alternative time‐series and market forecasts. Under root mean squared error (RMSE), the futures market forecast is most accurate at the first and second horizon but less accurate than Iowa outlook and the other forecast methods at the third horizon. In terms of the individual time‐series models, some vector autoregressions (VARs) and Bayesian VARs flexible in specification and estimation and model averaging tend to perform better than Iowa outlook forecasts. Evidence from encompassing tests, more stringent tests of forecast performance, indicates that many price forecasts can add incremental information to the Iowa forecast. Simple combinations of these models and outlook forecasts are able to reduce forecast errors by economically significant levels. Overall, the results indicate that it is possible to provide more accurate forecasts than Iowa outlook at every horizon.     

Strategic Pricing when Electricity is Storable

In this paper, we develop a simplified oligopoly model where hydro generators engage in dynamic Bertrand competition. Each player uses a Markov strategy based on the state of water reservoirs at the beginning of each period. The replenishing of water reservoirs, which affects generators' productive capacity, is governed by a stochastic process. Also, a price cap, i.e. a maximum bid allowed, is imposed on the market. We develop valuable insights for regulatory policy in predominantly hydro based electricity markets, including the effects of price caps, the efficiency of dispatch under strategic behavior and the likelihood of collusion.     

Saving behaviour: evidence from Portugal

This paper analyses the determinants of saving behaviour among Portuguese households using a structural equation model with latent variables. It is found that the main factors directly influencing households' saving behaviour are their attitude towards saving and their level of income. However, savers' behaviour is also indirectly influenced by their perceptions of longevity, their feelings as savers, the replacement rate and the age. The family size does not have any effect, either directly or indirectly. Policy implications are derived from the study.     

The option CAPM and the performance of hedge funds

We evaluate the investment performance of hedge funds using an asset pricing model that is characterized by a piecewise-linear stochastic discount factor, and which we estimate using the generalized method of moments by minimizing the Hansen–Jagannathan distance. Our results show that, once non-linearities and public information are taken into account, there is only evidence of positive performance for the overall hedge fund index, equity-market neutral strategy and the global macro strategy.     

Understanding Corporate Social Responsibility and Product Perceptions in Consumer Markets: A Cross-cultural Evaluation

The concept of corporate social responsibility is becoming integral to effective corporate brand management. This study adopts a multidimensional and cross-country perspective of the concept and analyses consumer perceptions of behaviour of four leading consumer products manufacturers. Data was collected from consumers in two countries – Spain and the UK. The study analyses consumers’ degree of interest in corporate responsibility and its impact on their perception about the company. The findings here suggest a weak impact of company-specific communication on consumers’ perception. The implications of this study are relevant to companies for strengthening their social responsibility associations with the consumers. Dr. Jaywant Singh is Senior Lecturer at Kingston University, London where he teaches consumer behaviour and international marketing. His research interests include customer loyalty, product variants, new brands, corporate social responsibility, and consumer panel data. He received his PhD in marketing in 2004. Dr. Maria de Mar Garcia de los Salmones is Lecturer at University of Cantabria (Spain). Her current research interests include corporate social responsibility, brand image and consumer behaviour. She received her PhD in business administration in 2002. Dr. Ignacio Rodriguez de Bosque is Professor of Marketing at the University of Cantabria (Spain). His current research interests include Business Communication, relationship marketing and distribution channels. He has published in several international journals such as Tourism, Management, Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services and Industrial Marketing Management.     

Dynamic Harmonic Regression Methods in the Analysis of Stochastic Time Series Exhibiting Strong Trigonometric Components

Journal of Quantitative Economics - Strongly periodic series occur frequently in many disciplines. This paper reviews one specific approach to analyzing such series viz. the harmonic regression...     

A critical look at technological innovation typology and innovativeness terminology: a literature review

A plethora of definitions for innovation types has resulted in an ambiguity in the way the terms ‘innovation’ and ‘innovativeness’ are operationalized and utilized in the new product development literature. The terms radical, really‐new, incremental and discontinuous are used ubiquitously to identify innovations. One must question, what is the difference between these different classifications? To date consistent definitions for these innovation types have not emerged from the new product research community. A review of the literature from the marketing, engineering, and new product development disciplines attempts to put some clarity and continuity to the use of these terms. This review shows that it is important to consider both a marketing and technological perspective as well as a macrolevel and microlevel perspective when identifying innovations. Additionally, it is shown when strict classifications from the extant literature are applied, a significant shortfall appears in empirical work directed toward radical and really new innovations. A method for classifying innovations is suggested so that practitioners and academics can talk with a common understanding of how a specific innovation type is identified and how the innovation process may be unique for that particular innovation type. A recommended list of measures based on extant literature is provided for future empirical research concerning technological innovations and innovativeness.

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Uses of Agent‐Based Modeling in Innovation/New Product Development Research*

Little has been written in the new product development literature about the simulation technique agent‐based modeling, which is a by‐product of recent explorations into complex adaptive systems in other disciplines. Agent‐based models (ABM) are commonly used in other social sciences to represent individual actors (or groups) in a dynamic adaptive system. The social system may be a marketplace, an organization, or any type of system that acts as a collective of individuals. Agents represent autonomous decision‐making entities that interact with each other and/or with their environment based on a set of rules. These rules dictate the behavioral choices of the agents. In these simulation models, heterogeneous agents interact with each other in a repetitive process. It is from the interactions between agents that aggregate macroscale behaviors or trends emerge. The simulated environment can be thought of as a “virtual” society in which actions taken by one agent may have an effect on the resulting actions of another agent. This article is an introduction to the ABM methodology and its possible uses for innovation and new product development researchers. It explores the benefits and issues with modeling dynamic systems using this methodology. Benefits of ABMs found in sociology and management studies have found that as the heterogeneity of individuals increase in a system or as network effects become more important in a system, the effectiveness of ABMs as a methodology increases. Additionally, the more adaptive a system or the more the system evolves over time, the greater the opportunity to learn more about the adaptive system using ABMs. Limitations to using this methodology include some knowledge of computer‐programming techniques. Three potential areas of research are introduced: diffusion of innovations, organizational strategy, and knowledge and information flows. A common use of ABMs in the extant literature has been the modeling of the diffusion process between networked heterogeneous agents. ABMs easily allow the modeling of different types of networks and the impact of these networks on the diffusion process. A demonstrative example of an agent‐based model to address the research question of how should manufacturers allocate resources to research (exploration) and development (exploitation) projects is provided. Future courses of study using ABMs also are explored.     

Technological Incompatibility, Endogenous Switching Costs and Lock-in

Systems are goods comprising of durables that are sequentially updated with complements. With sequential purchases, if suppliers produce incompatible brands, consumers who upgrade systems with complements of a different brand must replace the durables they own. Thus, the price of these durables is an endogenous switching cost. The paper deals with the concern that firms may use incompatibility to create consumer's switching costs to reduce competition in aftermarkets. However, it shows that, with homogenous durables, and small costs of reaching compatibility, endogenous switching costs increase intertemporal price competition to the extent that producers prefer to have compatible technologies.